Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and DraftStreet 3/18/14

It's a tricky night in the NBA DFS landscape. There are some blowouts looming, so expensive guys sitting. Some dudes not getting their minutes and others probably seeing more opportunity. It's going to get weird.

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Point Guards

Couple of interesting ways to go here today.

Jarrett Jack - FanDuel $4,400 DraftKings $4,500 DraftStreet $11,783
The Cavs demise with the injury to Kyrie is the DFS world's gain. Jack should take over point guard duties and play big minutes in the role. That's pretty much all you need to happen at these prices on FanDuel and DraftKings. DraftStreet is already pretty steep. I don't know if I'll be doing it there mostly because Miami is a top team in the league against opposing point guards. As a punt, Jack is fine. As a midrange guy it's a little closer.

Damian Lillard - FanDuel $7,700 DraftKings $8,300 DraftStreet $15,845
The big money choices at point guard boil down to Lillard and Lowry. Our system likes Lowry better, but I think I'm going with Lillard. It hasn't totally corrected for his usage with Aldridge out of the lineup and I think this is still buying on the way up as opposed to Lowry where you are paying a bit of a premium on his ceiling from the last two games.

Kyle Lowry - FanDuel $9,100 DraftKings $8,800 DraftStreet $17,648
Lowry gets to face off against a Hawks team that's about league average against opposing point guards. Everything on paper looks great for Lowry, coming off two huge games and I like the matchup of course. But as stated above, I'm a little wary or him being able to continue putting up his recent lines.

Mario Chalmers - FanDuel $4,900 DraftKings $4,800 DraftStreet $8,844
Very cheap option in what could be a big blowout. Chalmers doesn't have to do much and Jack will be guarding him.

Brandon Knight - DraftKings $6,700
He's consistently underpriced on this site. Portland is not great against point guards.

Mo Williams - FanDuel $4,400 DraftKings $4,000 DraftStreet $7,404
Played more than thirty minutes the other night. Could see it again as he's picking up the run with Aldridge out and Portland going small.

 

Shooting Guards

Bradley Beal - FanDuel $6,300 DraftKings $6,300 DraftStreet $10,448
The top shooting guard option tonight and I don't think it's particularly close. It doesn't get much worse than the Kings' defense verse shooting guards. They've been letting up about 30% (you read that correctly) more scoring to shooting guards over the short term including 31 to Kevin Martin the other night. Beal should have plenty of looks.

Klay Thompson - FanDuel $5,900 DraftKings $6,000 DraftStreet $11,984
Fairly significant drop-off to the next best shooting guard option. I like Klay much more on FanDuel than anywhere else which works out because you need two SGs there and the other sites are less stringent on positions. I won't be targeting any other Warriors tonight except Thompson.

Terrence Ross - FanDuel $4,500 DraftKings $4,000 DraftStreet $8,715
Very cheap and can be very effective. Should have a full minutes run against Atlanta who sport a below league average defense against opposing shooting guards. They are getting crushed by the position in the short term.

Dion Waiters - FanDuel $5,200 DraftKings $5,300 DraftStreet $10,427
Speculative play at best but he should be in the starting lineup with Kyrie sidelined. He can have the big game every once in a while. GPP play only, but I think he'll take a ton of shots.

 

Small Forwards

LeBron James - FanDuel $10,500 DraftKings $10,500 DraftStreet $20,617
The top big money option tonight. The question just becomes how much you think he plays. This thing could very much be over early as the Cavs are severely lacking in scoring options with Irving out. That being said, if the game can remain even a little close, look for Lebron to crush.

Nicolas Batum - FanDuel $7,800 DraftKings $7,700 DraftStreet $17,127
Price has gotten a little nuts on DraftStreet, but is nowhere near caught up on the other two sites. Batum has taken over with Aldridge out of the lineup. His last two games have seen him average 23/16/5. That is out of hand. He's due to regress a little as he shot over 50% from the field in those two games, but he also saw an uptick in shot attempts. The DraftStreet price has me worried but he'll be close to a lock on the other two sites.

Trevor Ariza - FanDuel $6,500 DraftKings $6,000 DraftStreet $12,682
Always a high upside play if he gets his shot going early. He's been a bit of a disaster lately which has his price down. I say take advantage. The Kings aren't a good defensive team around the perimeter and I think Ariza takes his shot aplenty.

DeMarre Carroll - DraftKings $4,800
Another guy I seem to always target here. He plays a ton of minutes and can easily pay this off in cash games.

 

Power Forwards

Thank goodness other sites don't make you start two power forwards tonight. This is as bad a group as I've ever seen on FanDuel. It is legit awful. So many question marks and very few options.

Amir Johnson - FanDuel $5,900 DraftKings $6,000 DraftStreet $11,971
He's really the only guy I see as a relatively safe play as his minutes are locked in with Patrick Patterson out of the lineup. Johnson isn't a great play, but he's a body who should play his minutes against an Atlanta team with a weak interior defense.

Paul Millsap - FanDuel $8,200 DraftKings $8,600 DraftStreet $16,645
I don't love this play from a value standpoint, but you may be forced just for the safety of it. Millsap has a high ceiling, but he hits it infrequently. This is just an ok matchup against the Raptors. Like I said, PF is bad tonight.

Drew Gooden - FanDuel $3,500 DraftKings $3,200
See what I mean?

 

Centers

Spencer Hawes - FanDuel $6,800 DraftKings $7,100 DraftStreet $13,933
Miami has a real big problem with opposing centers. It's bad. They are getting killed down low by big men. Consider that over the last two weeks this is how far below league average they've been against the position: Points-38%, Rebounds-32%, Assists-32%. Those numbers are alarming. All making for Hawes to have a nice expectation for tonight. He should, at the minimum see more scoring and rebounding. It remains to be seen what the game as a whole will shape up to be, so there's risk there. But he has the highest upside at center tonight.

Jonas Valanciunas - FanDuel $5,100 DraftKings $5,500 DraftStreet $11,584
His minutes, always a question mark, are starting to come around and he's played more than thirty in the last two. That's exactly what we're looking for, especially going against an Atlanta team that lacks any real presence inside. They've been pretty horrible without Horford and Ayon in the lineup. I think Valanciunas puts up a double double.

Robin Lopez - FanDuel $6,000 DraftKings $5,600 DraftStreet $12,662
Like his friends Damian and Nic, Robin benefits from having Aldridge out. It's really a testament to how much Aldridge does in the offense that so many guys benefit from having him out. It's crazy, but Lopez is in play for as long he sees increased shots and rebounding opportunities.