Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 3/14/15

NBA baby! So precious little time remaining in the best daily fantasy sports season. But still dollars to be won! So let's do it.

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Point Guards

George Hill - FD 6200 DK 6500 DFSTR 5600
After shredding the daily fantasy landscape for a week, Hill cooled off considerably - averaging 24 fantasy points a game for three games before a solid 29 points performance his last time out. So what's going on? A shooting slump, mostly. A lot of the underlying opportunity is still there, Hill has just happened to shoot 37% instead of his usual 44% and ran into some playing time blips in blow outs against the Bulls and Magic. Against the Celtics? That hopefully won't be the case. They've allowed 3% more scoring and 5% more rebounding to opposing point guards this season, and our projection system thinks we're in for a very solid game.

Alexey Shved - FD 5600 DK 5500 DFSTR 3600
(insert Russian roulette joke). But seriously! This has been one of the funnest seasons in recent memory when it comes to random guys showing up and lighting the daily fantasy hoops scene on fire, and I'll place Shved firmly in those ranks. Zee Russian has put together back to back double doubles (points and REBOUNDS) in 33 and 41 minutes, and is positively a steal if we can count on him for 30+ minutes. The interesting wrinkle, of course, is Golden State. They could beat the Knicks by ~100 points here. But even still, all indicators are that we're just looking at an incorrect price for what Shved can do in that offense, so I think he'll get his and then some bad match-up not withstanding.

John Wall - FD 9000 DK 8500 DFSTR 7300
It's going to feel a little bit like trying to catch a falling knife playing Wall, but there has been some strange stuff going on to deflate his totals. First, he had a 6 game stretch where he shot 30/91 from the field (during a season where he's shooting 45%). Then, he shot terrifically in two blowouts. And the thing is, he really hasn't been bad from a fantasy perspective on those prices in that stretch. When it all comes together, Wall is likely to put up a seriously fantastic game. And why shouldn't that happen against the corpse of Andre Miller and the young Ray McCallum? Well, it should happen. Hence the pick.

Also considered: If Conley is out again, Beno Udrih is a fantastic play. He was awful against the Wizards and still didn't kill you on Thursday, and he's put up some great fantasy performances as a starter this season. If he starts, I'll play him again, confident that what we saw on Thursday was his floor.

Shooting Guards

Bradley Beal - FD 5700 DK 5700 DFSTR 5400
Beal's story is pretty similar to Wall's really. His price is about %15 off of his season high after a long stretch of injuries and injury-impacted performance, and it looks like he might be settling back into his pre-injury usage. The great news here is the Kings wing defense - they've allowed a positively dismal 12% more scoring to opposing two guards this season to go with 18% more steals, making them basically the ideal match-up for Beals scores/steals game. I'm expecting a price jump after this game, and this to be something like Beal's low salary point for the rest of the season.

Tony Allen - FD 4600 DK 4200 DFSTR 4100
Allen has quietly shifted back into a 28 minutes per game role recently, and has really made the most of it. He's back to wreaking havoc on the defensive end (11 steals in his last 3 games) and has scored double digit points in five of his last six. When he's involved on both ends of the floor like this he's got fantastic upside on a game to game basis, as evidenced by two 29+ fantasy point performances in two of his last three games. It looks for all the world like the price is just wrong here, and that we should be fully taking advantage of Allen's opportunity until his price climbs past the $5,000 mark on FanDuel.

Giannis Antetokounmpo - FD 6900 DK 6900 DFSTR 5600
For your GPP purposes. The Greek Freak has sprinkled in some awful games around his career high 51 fantasy point performance against New Orleans, and for all of Memphis' defensive reputation, they've been essentially league average when it comes to allowing points to opposing shooting guards this season. I think his height gives him such an advantage over Tony Allen and Courtney Lee that he'll be on the upper end of his games rather on the lower end, but there's obviously plenty of risk involved.

Also considered: I headlined with Klay Thompson last night and he got a day of rest, and our projection system loves him again here. I'm just a little gun shy about the blowout potential. But he could really crush the Knicks.

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Small Forwards

Jeff Green - FD 5000 DK 5400 DFSTR 4800
Green's usage took a systematic jump in the beginning of March, and his price hasn't yet caught up. After the Grizzlies punted the game against the Wiz, we're now looking at a seriously great buying opportunity. Milwaukee is only slightly worse than league average when it comes to defending opposing small forwards, but Green's usage is fully 20% higher these days than it was earlier on in Memphis. I think Green is a favorite to put up a 5x points per dollar performance here, with room for more to go with it.

C.J. Miles - FD 4400 DK 4000 DFSTR 4200
I'll be real with you, if you can handle it. It's a brutal slate for small forwards. Bah-roo, ta-hul. So what do I like about Miles? Well, with guys who are constantly nicked up, we want to look at what they've done most recently, and most recently, Miles collected 22 fantasy points on 30 minutes of action. Nothing to write home about, but on a $4,400 FanDuel salary this is actually pretty nice, and against Boston's slightly below average small forward defense, he represents a great way to escape from the position relatively safely. Now, could his "sore feet" act up and kill you here? Sure. But the position really is that bad tonight.

Khris Middleton - FD 7000 DK 6700 DFSTR 5000
Recommending Middleton at this price tag gives me the spins a little bit. I remember grabbing him for nearly half this price last year and being delighted at him tearing it up. But the price is pretty much justified - he's put up 6x points per dollar on this FanDuel price three times in his last six games. So why am I queasy? It's those other darn 3 games, where he put up 3x or less. Memphis has been no picnic on opposing small forwards this season, and this could be a disappearing game, or it could be one of the huge games. If you want minutes safety, he's clearly your guy, but I don't personally think he's got the same points per dollar upside as Miles, listed above.

Power Forwards

Derrick Favors - FD 7900 DK 8100 DFSTR 7200
Favors is another guy who has quietly seen an uptick in his minutes recently, and the production has followed. It's actually one of the more underrated aspects of analyzing guys on a game to game basis. The difference between 33 minutes and 36 minutes per game might not feel like very much on the surface, but adding that extra ~10% playing time is basically adding 10% in production. If you got an extra 10% playing time out of your guys on FanDuel, it would be like adding another $6,000 player. This is a huge deal. Okay, lesson over 🙂 What our projection system is seeing here is a tremendously terrible Detroit front court defense - they've allowed 9% more scoring, 5% more rebounding, and 15% more assists to opposing power forwards. It's sure looking like the safest mid-tier play on the board.

David Lee - FD 4700 DK 3900 DFSTR 4600
I'm hesitant to recommend any of the Warriors in what should be a blow-out, but I'll make an exception for Lee. As of this writing he he's on pace for ~30 minutes as the Golden State center, and that should be way more than enough for him to pay his price against the Knicks. Keep an eye on Bogut's status, but if this is a thing, Lee will be a tremendous value.

Thaddeus Young - FD 5800 DK 5500 DFSTR
Young's minutes had been up and down and around and round and back again, and have recently settled in around the 33 minute mark. In a game that's somewhat unlikely to be a blowout, I suspect he'll be in that same range tonight. So, it's basically a math problem. In recent games that he's played more than 30 minutes he hasn't scored fewer than 28 fantasy points. Paying these prices for that production is a great value. And it's interesting, because Philly really hasn't been awful against power forwards this season (league average against scoring and rebounds, for instance), but this is just a case of price not catching up to opportunity once again.

Also considered: Andrea Bargnani. Our projection system loves him on this 33 minute diet he's been getting, and he's obviously flashed incredible points per dollar upside, but the blow-out risk keeps me from listing him in the picks proper.

Center

Brook Lopez - FD 7200 DK 6700 DFSTR 6500
The dam has broken on the Brook Lopez price, but it hardly even matters. He's been consistently paying 5 points per dollar since his recent playing time bump, and I don't see why he won't see those same minutes against Philly tonight. While the Sixers haven't been as giving to power forwards, they have taken most of their front court damage from opposing centers, allowing 4% more scoring and 11% more rebounding to opposing big men this season, including a 39/24 game to Cousins last night. A very nice spot for safety and upside.

Rudy Gobert - FD 7700 DK 8300 DFSTR 7400
Gobert had his ankle treated on Friday, and there's really no way to tell what his status will be for Saturday as of this writing. But if he does play? My lawd. He's averaged 18 boards and 4 blocks in his last two games, and has been positively abusing people down low. I've documented Detroit's struggles against opposing big men so many times this season I feel like I must be boring you at this point, but it bears repeating - they really suck at this whole defending thing. If Gobert's right, he's going to maul them.

If you can save up... our projection system also like Demarcus Cousins as a big money play against the Wiz. It isn't a great match-up, but Cousins is demanding the ball and embarrassing people again, and when he's in this mode, anything is possible.

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