Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and DraftStreet for 3/11/14

Yo! Mister March here for Tuesdays picks. An odd night, with lots of value vs. Indiana, discounting some recent break out performances, and a general lack of clear-cut studs. But this is where we make our money - when big mistakes are possible for our opponents. A fair warning - guys not listed here were generally hated by the system we use... and finding several guys for each position was no easy feat. On to the picks!

 

Point Guards

Russell Westbrook - FanDuel $8,700 DraftKings $9,500 DraftStreet $18,334
Option 1a for the OKC Thunder has been out of his mind recently, and seems to be a triple-double threat every time he steps out on the court. The price is approaching where it ought to be, but it still hasn't identified Russ as a true superstar. Still playing limited minutes, but RWB seems like a can't miss for both Double-ups and GPPs tonight - even if Patrick Beverly is in his hair.

Rajon Rondo - FanDuel $8,100 DraftKings $7,900 DraftStreet $15,339
A quick warning - Rondo has said he won't play both ends of the back to back, so you need to watch this leading up in to game time, but my gut is telling me he'll go Tuesday and sit Wednesday. I know it feels weird taking a PG against the Pacers' defensive reputation, but their performance against PGs has been only 2% better than league average recently, and in spite of Rondo reaching his high-water price point for the season, I think there's plenty of safety in this number if he plays. Feels more like a safety play than an upside play, but I'll roll with him in my double-ups without hesitation.

Jerryd Bayless - FanDuel $5,000 DraftKings $4,500 DraftStreet $9,566
Somewhat of a tricky play, because Indiana is actually better against SGs than PGs, and Bayless has been playing SG no matter how long it takes FanDuel to adjust his position. Nonetheless, there's still plenty of upside on this price if Rondo plays, and Bayless becomes an auto-start if Rondo sits.

Will Bynum - FanDuel $4,600 DraftKings $3,900 DraftStreet $8,386
I can't blame you if you've been sleeping on Will Bynum, but have you seen what he's been up to recently? Aside from 1 stinker, he's paying 5x on this price like it's his job. Sacramento has shown improved numbers against PGs recently, but Bynum will play against the back-up unit, and should enjoy a nice run against them. Not a double-up play, but for random, low % upside? You could do worse.

Kirk Hinrich - FanDuel $3,800 DraftKings $4,000 DraftStreet $7,520
Hinrich can't be called a safe play, but San Antonio has been allowing more points to opposing PGs than almost anyone recently, and Hinrich's sub 4k price on FD means not a ton has to go right for him to have you feeling good about playing him. On a weak night at PG, you could do a heck of a lot worse.

Brandon Knight - DraftKings $6,500
Very much in play against the Wolves.

 

Shooting Guards

Jimmy Butler - FanDuel $6,700 DraftKings $6,400 DraftStreet $12,705
Butler is a strange player, in that he plays a very consistent amount of huge minutes, but his performances vary quite a bit from game to game. He seems to be more susceptible to bad match-ups than most. Luckily for him, San Antonio has turned into a positive match-up for SGs recently. I like his safety here, with a little room for upside as well on a poor night for SGs.

James Harden - FanDuel $10,000 DraftKings $10,400 DraftStreet $19,696
Revenge game etc etc, but what's really in play here is OKC's declining play against opposing SGs with Sefolosha out of the lineup. I still get Sticker-Shock when I see Harden's price creep to these levels, but after his outburst against Portland, it'd be remiss to say he's not in play for both safety and upside against his former team.

Manu Ginobili - FanDuel $4,800 DraftKings $5,200 DraftStreet $10,764
We gave you Manu as an upside play vs. Orlando, and he went crazy. Chicago presents a much stouter matchup, but the upside is still there if the game breaks the right way and some other guys get Pop'd. Not a double-up play for me, but he should be a low % high upside play, and his odd game isn't as easily suppressed as others who have been swallowed up by Thibs and company.

Monta Ellis - FanDuel $7,300 DraftKings $7,800 DraftStreet $14,778
Monta's been crashing the boards recently, and while I don't expect him to put up 8 rebounds per night, it points to his relative safety among SGs. He does a little bit of everything, and on nights where his shot is falling, he can produce nicely on this number. He draws an extremely favorable matchup against Golden State's back-court, who shouldn't pressure him into a lot of bad shots.

Klay Thompson - FanDuel $5,500
Dallas is actually pretty reasonable against shooting guards, but I still like Thompson here. He has a few disappearing acts in his game log, but played very nicely his last time out, and I don't expect Ellis/Calderon/Carter/whoever else guards him to give his catch and shoot game much trouble.

Lance Stephenson - DraftKings $6,600
Super low here.

 

Small Forwards

Khris Middleton - FanDuel $4,900 DraftKings $4,400 DraftStreet $10,394
I can't blame you if you never want to see Middleton's name again as long as you live. Or any Buck, really. It pains me to allow him to top this list, but let me explain. Since 2/27, his minutes have been a lot more consistent, and his play with the first unit has been really strong. There's actually considerable upside in this number, especially against a Minnesota team that stinks against opposing SFs. I'm taking him for double-ups and GPPs, but understand if you don't want to.

Kawhi Leonard - FanDuel $6,400 DraftKings $6,500 DraftStreet $13,858
The Bulls have been pretty tough against opposing SFs recently, but Leonard's minutes keep ticking upward as Pop gets more comfortable that he's fully back from injury. He's become the Spurs' most steady option fantasy-wise, and I think there's plenty of safety built in to this price even against a tough Bulls D.

Kyle Singler - FanDuel $4,400 DraftKings $3,800 DraftStreet $7,205
Kyle Singler has disappointed me, you, and presumably his parents more times than any of us care to admit. I get that. But he's going out against a Sacramento team that gives up 5% more points to opposing SFs than league average, and he plays 34+ minutes every night. I'm not psyched to get him in there or anything, but a lot can happen when a guy is standing out on the court that long. Sorry if you're reading this, Kyle - I just have to tell it like it is.

Josh Smith - FanDuel $8,500 DraftKings $8,000 DraftStreet $14,745
Don't look now, but the guy with the stupidest nickname in the NBA has become one of the league's most solid fantasy options. In games that aren't blowouts (and this one shouldn't be), J-SMOOVE has been putting up 40+ FPs like it's his job, which it is. He hasn't gone off recently for a huge game, but those 60+ FPs performances from earlier this season have me dreaming on the upside possible here if he gets inspired into a chuck-fest by Rudy Gay.

Kevin Durant - FanDuel $12,000 DraftKings $11,200 DraftStreet $22,816
If you're looking to spend big tonight on any given player, Durant's not a bad play at all. It's a high profile game against his former teammate and the league's most charismatic center, and I am assuming KD will want to prove that he's the best player on the court. It's tough to have much upside on prices like these, but if you find some good punt options elsewhere, Durant seems like a lock for 50-60 FPs. Also, not sure who is supposed to cover him on Houston, but I sure hope it's not poor Chandler Parsons.

Paul George - FanDuel $8,400
George is showing glimpses of his early season self, recently... and was destined for a huge performance his last time out, if not for foul trouble. He runs into a Boston team that features defenders either too short or too slow to cover him, so I think he tops 45+ FPs in this one. Love him for double-ups, would use him a little more cautiously in GPPs.

Honorable mention

Nicolas Batum - FanDuel $7,100 DraftKings $7,400 DraftStreet $14,176
System loves Batum on all sites tonight, but I am not feeling it personally. Just wanted to throw him out there in case you are interested.

 

Power Forwards

Kevin Love - FanDuel $11,800 DraftKings $11,000 DraftStreet $23,176
The only risk here is the blowout. His prices have climbed to Durantian levels, but it's totally warranted. K-love has to be considered one of the very safest options in the game, even at high prices.

Greg Monroe - FanDuel $7,800 DraftKings $7,800 DraftStreet $15,975
Have you noticed what Greg Monroe has been up to lately? Neither have the Daily Fantasy Basketball sites, so you don't have to worry if you've missed it. The less sexy half of the twin towers in Detroit has been in absolute beast mode recently, grabbing 14 and 15 boards in his last two games. His price is ticking up, but I think he is going to give Thompson and Evans hell tonight... on his way to another 40+ FPs performance.

David Lee - FanDuel $7,800 DraftKings $7,700 DraftStreet $15,221
Getting his full run of minutes now and the price hasn't caught back up yet.

Ersan Ilyasova - FanDuel $5,500 DraftKings $5,200 DraftStreet $10,884
Ilyasova's suspension doesn't seem to have shaken Larry Drew's confidence in him, and he's remained one of the games steadiest producers in the $5k range. Minnesota is roughly league average against PFs, but Ilyasova should be able to do plenty against DH Kevin Love.

Reggie Evans - FanDuel $3,800 DraftKings $3,600 DraftStreet $8,146
A guy with minutes this variable can never be called safe, but there is an awful lot of upside built in to this sub $4k price. Reggie Evans is more than capable of 6x or 7x on a $3,800 FD salary, and nothing about the matchup with Detroit scares me into thinking otherwise.

Kris Humphries - FanDuel $4,800 DraftKings $4,500 DraftStreet $10,720
Not for the weak-willed, but Humphries seems to have moved back into Brad Stevens' "nice list" recently. The huge night against Detroit is more important in determining the amount of minutes Humphries is going to get than it is in projecting his performance in this game... but Humphries also played 37 minutes and performed quite nicely against Indiana in their last matchup. Humphries is definition boom or bust, but I know I'm sneaking him onto a few squads and hoping for fireworks.

Honorable Mention

Serge Ibaka - FanDuel $8,200 DraftKings $7,400 DraftStreet $14,737
Like Batum, the system is a fan. I think it mostly comes from a big performance against the Lakers, but especially on Draftstreet, the system likes Ibaka quite a bit at this price.

 

Centers

Marc Gasol - FanDuel $7,300 DraftKings $7,600 DraftStreet $14,776
Gasol is like the girl in college who was your best friend, and it always felt like you should date her, but the chemistry was never quite there. Or, for our large female readership, you can swap the sexes of the previous sentence. Gasol is steady. He's a quintessential double-up play who won't give you less than 4x, but is unlikely to hit 6x. Gasol is the center you bring home to mom. Okay, okay. Enough dating-centered analogies.

Andre Drummond - FanDuel $7,900 DraftKings $8,000 DraftStreet $17,379
Few players are more fun to root for than Mr. Drummond when things are rolling his way. He's blocking shots, grabbing boards, dunking on people... love the guy. I'm willing to dismiss the 2 stinkers in his last 3 outings and focus on the positives - when he's right, 15 boards seems like a lock. Boogie is a tough matchup, but Drummond's rather unpolished athleticism-based game shouldn't be effected too much.

Kelly Olynyk - FanDuel $4,300 DraftKings $4,700 DraftStreet $9,751
Pretty much a dice-roll, but Olynyk has seen a lot of touches down low since he came back from injury. Bonus points for him as well if Indiana runs away with this one. I can't recommend him for double-ups, but given some other favorable matchups for Boston tonight, I'd be happy to roll with him in some sort of Boston-Indiana stack lineup.

DeMarcus Cousins - FanDuel $9,500 DraftKings $9,800
The big men on Detroit are overrated defensively due to some high-light reel plays.. but they've actually given up 20% more FPs to opposing centers than league average in their last 15 games. I'm digging Boogie for both upside and safety, keeping in mind that the head-case concentration in the paint may lead to some unwanted fireworks.

Joakim Noah - DraftKings $8,500
Going to finish somewhere in the MVP voting. You can sneak him in at this price.