Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, and Draftstreet 3/8/14

MisterMarch here and I don't know about you, but that Friday in the NBA left me just a little manic. The Lakers and Nuggets put up a combined 260. Random blowouts. Off nights. On nights. It was nuts. Let's hope things settle down a bit tonight as we hunt for value.

 

Point Guards

Trey Burke - FanDuel $5,600 DraftKings $5,800 DraftStreet $10,786
Burke is the lucky PG who gets to face the D-league 76ers on Saturday. He's also lucky because his own team isn't especially great, so the blowout risk is as low for the Jazz as it would be for any team facing this embarrassment to the NBA. I'm playing Burke everywhere.

Kyrie Irving - FanDuel $8,400 DraftKings $9,100 DraftStreet $16,656
Kyrie has been quietly consistent recently, and goes against Michelin Man Ray Felton, who couldn't be a better matchup for him. The Knicks play very slowly, and even still, they are only a hair better than league average against opposing PGs. Kyrie makes an ideal play for both double-ups and GPP, as he's also been playing much better at home than on the road.

John Wall - FanDuel $9,000 DraftKings $9,600 DraftStreet $18,497
Just a quick nod to Wall - whom I love for his consistency. The blowout risk really scares me here, but Wall is so darn consistent that I have to recommend him for double-ups blowout risk be damned.

Raymond Felton - FanDuel $5,800 DraftKings $5,500 DraftStreet $10,689
Felton shocked everyone but the one asshole on FanDuel who played him and won the whole tournament, and that type of performance isn't to be expected, but the Cavs allow 10% more FPs to opposing PGs than league average, and Felton could halve that performance and still do fine for you. Not my favorite play on the board, mostly because I hate Ray's guts, but definitely worth a look.

Chris Paul - FanDuel $9,300 DraftKings $9,500
CP3's game log isn't the impressive, because they've been CRUSHING teams recently. This has bitten into his play time. I am picturing a let down after they boat-raced the Lakers, which is actually a good thing for Paul, who should see his full allotment of minutes against an Atlanta team that is worse than league average when it comes to allowing points to opposing PGs. Like him for 40 FPs easy, with upside for 50+.

Brandon Knight - DraftKings $6,500 DraftStreet $12,894
DraftStreet just doesn't respect Knight's upside. He's still not a double up play here, but Knight is capable enough of an explosion that you can't ignore him for this paltry price.

 

Shooting Guards

 

Gordon Hayward - FanDuel $6,600 DraftKings $7,500 DraftStreet $15,105
Hayward gets the best match up on the board, and has been playing a lot of minutes lately. He matches up great against a Philly team who is reluctant to stick with guys away from the ball, as when Hayward is swallowed up, it's usually by teams with a great wing defender. That ain't Philly. I like him as one of the top 2 plays on FD.

Chris Douglas-Roberts - FanDuel $3,700 DraftKings $3,200 DraftStreet $7,594
CDR seems to be the starter of choice at the moment, and while he is priced this low, he remains a solid option. I'm not personally in love with his game, but getting a starter for less than $4,000 is awfully tough to pass up.

James Anderson - FanDuel $4,400 DraftKings $4,400 DraftStreet $7,751
Anderson is an odd case, because he hasn't really gotten as many more shots as I figured he'd get since the 76ers blew things up. One thing to note, however, is that his minutes suffer when Philly gets blown out, which is like, always, except this time they are playing a pretty awful team in Utah. Maybe they won't get blown out this time? I'm happy to roll with Anderson in any format today.

Kyle Korver - FanDuel $4,800 DraftKings $5,300 DraftStreet $9,645
Korver should benefit from Millsap's return, mostly because it will mean the Hawks won't suck as much and get destroyed like they did against Portland. Otherwise, Korver has been producing solidly on these prices all year, and I don't expect that to change against a Clippers team that will be throwing some fairly lousy wing defenders at him.

Arron Afflalo - FanDuel $6,200 DraftKings $6,400 DraftStreet $12,460
Afflalo looked pretty good in his return, and I don't have any reason to doubt that he'll be back up to his full slate of minutes soon. I'd be willing to gamble that that's today, and with the other wings banged up on the Magic, Afflalo stands to be in line for a lot of shots. This is strictly a GPP play, though, as I am forecasting the Spurs to win by 50ish points.

 

Small Forwards

Matt Barnes - FanDuel $5,700 DraftKings $5,700 DraftStreet $12,785
Barnes is the top play on the board, but only if Crawford is out again. Even if Crawford does play, I think it will effect Collison's minutes more than Barnes.

Kawhi Leonard - FanDuel $6,200 DraftKings $6,400 DraftStreet $13,181
Leonard is the most consistent Spur, and seems to be the least likely to get Pop'd on any given night. Orlando has been pretty pathetic against SFs recently, and either missing Oladipo or having him on a bad ankle won't help. If the game stays close, Kawhi could go off... and even in a blowout I'm liking him for 30 FPs.

Trevor Ariza - FanDuel $6,800 DraftKings $7,000 DraftStreet $14,933
Ariza has a fantastic matchup against the poo-poo platter Bucks, who are particularly bad against opposing Small Forwards. Ariza's size and his perimeter game should be perfect in this matchup, and I'm expecting a lot of looks from outside. As always, blowouts are in play with the Bucks... but there are a lot of games with blowout potential, and you have to play somebody.

If Oladipo doesn't play...
Maurice Harkless - FanDuel $4,600 DraftKings $4,500 DraftStreet $10,142
Harkless has been fantastic recently, and while Oladipo and Nelson are traveling with the team, there's no guarantee that they'll play. And even if they do, the combination of blowout risk (which would then benefit Harkless) and his recently excellent play would have me tempted to take the risk in a GPP format.

Jeff Adrien - FanDuel $4,000 DraftKings $3,600 DraftStreet $8,213
Adrien has been awesome on this number, and his rebounding ability gives him the kind of safety you crave from a punt-like option. The great thing about Adrien is that he actually benefits from the Bucks getting blown out, which is likely on any given night.

 

Power Forwards

Amar'e Stoudemire - FanDuel $4,300 DraftKings $4,500 DraftStreet $10,921
Amar'e is getting no respect for some reason, and the price simply hasn't caught up to what his performance has been as a starter. Easily the top play on the board, as being able to reasonably forecast 25-30 FPs on a 4.3k salary is almost too good to be true. Got limited run in an easy blowout win for the Knicks last night.

Boris Diaw - FanDuel $5,100 DraftKings $5,000 DraftStreet $11,429
The price is creeping up on Diaw, but so are his minutes and his performance. He shoots 3s, blocks shots, and generally kicks ass... and he's going up against a banged up magic team that doesn't match up well with his inside outside game. Love me some Diaw, blowout risk or no.

Thaddeus Young - FanDuel $8,300 DraftKings $7,500 DraftStreet $15,543
Young is another guy whose game log has been blown up by Philly's involvement in blowouts. At some point, the 76ers starters are going to complete a game.. and I think today's the day. With the other decent players all having been traded away, I think Young will taste blood in his mouth for this one, and produce a huge night similar to his 50+ FPs performances vs. Dallas and Milwaukee.

Derrick Favors - FanDuel $6,100 DraftKings $6,500 DraftStreet $12,855
Favors has been in a ton of foul trouble recently, and this precludes him from being a double-up play in spite of his terrific match up. That being said, you aren't going to find more upside for ~$6k anywhere else on the board. Close your eyes, click Favors, and pray that he focuses on scoring and boarding instead of trying to play defense and fouling people.

Trevor Booker - FanDuel $4,100 DraftKings $3,700
An off game for Booker his last go-round, but the rebounding upside here is very significant.. and the price on FanDuel still warrants serious consideration assuming he's still starting. GPP only.

If you want to pay...
Carmelo Anthony - FanDuel $10,200 DraftKings $10,000 DraftStreet $19,838
Not an ideal matchup for Melo on paper, but a lot of Cleveland's "vs. PF" stats come from having Varejao down low, and not Spencer Hawes. Melo's perimeter-focused game is also a lot better suited to facing the Cavs than post-up PFs. I'm going to personally be spending less on PFs today, but if you are tempted to spend on PFs, I far prefer Melo to guys like Blake or Duncan.

 

Centers

Marcin Gortat - FanDuel $7,100 DraftKings $6,800 DraftStreet $15,285
Gortat has been the picture of consistency recently, and draws a Milwaukee team that has no defensive Center with Sanders out. Blowout risk etc etc but I think Gortat has a field day with this undersized Bucks squad.

Marc Gasol - FanDuel $7,300 DraftKings $7,600 DraftStreet $15,227
I love Gasol's polished game against Al Jefferson, who is a lot less solid, and more of a gambler. Gasol has 40 FPs in 4 of his last 7, and I'm picturing a continuation of that against the Bobcats.

Nikola Vucevic - FanDuel $7,400 DraftKings $8,000 DraftStreet $15,276
My gut isn't loving this match-up for Vucevic against the craft Spurs, but the system projects him for about 38 FPs - something I can't rightfully ignore. Not a guy I will play personally, but won't blame you if you go in his direction. If the Magic can keep the game close, Vucevic could have a huge game. But in blow-outs, Vucevic seems to be the first guy who has his minutes fucked with due to injury history.

Tyson Chandler - FanDuel $7,000 DraftKings $6,700 DraftStreet $14,273
Poor Spencer Hawes. He and Tyson Chandler should make a buddy-cop movie, where Hawes is the sensitive, out of touch one, and Chandler is the street-smart bruiser. Don't let Hawes recent performance fool you - Chandler could very well eat him alive down low in this one.

Enes Kanter - FanDuel $5,600 DraftKings $5,200 DraftStreet $10,698
Kanter is your definition boom or bust guy. I wouldn't play him in anything other than a GPP, but man, it's awfully attractive to think about him getting one of his 35 minute games against Henry Sims and company. The riskiest play of all my recommended Centers, but easily the highest upside. His low price reflects the fact that he's as likely to destroy your team as make you win, but it's a risk I'm willing to take in GPPs.