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Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

02/22/2014
Doug Norrie

Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and DraftStreet 2/22/14

Last night seemed just crazy in the NBA. The Sixers had like four players, leaving it to Thad Young to do just about everything. The Mavs had over a 100 before the fourth quarter started. The Knicks and Magic kept going to OTs. The Bulls blew out the Nuggets. It was a wild night. Let's have things settle down tonight and grab some value in the margins.

Going to try something new today. Rather than section off specific site values, I've listed the sites next to each player where we think they have value. Think this will be easier to see where specific guys should be in lineups. Let me know if you like this format better. Remember to sign up for our free ebook on setting daily NBA lineups and follow on twitter @dailyfantasyr

Point Guards

Yuck. Not a huge fan of what's happening at point guard. The guys who are the best system value come attached with question marks. And the bigger names are a little overpriced. It'll depend on the site today and even then you are throwing darts a bit.

Brandon Jennings - FanDuel $8,500 DraftKings $8,400 DraftStreet $14,063
One of the most frustrating guys out there. Jennings went something like 0/12 from the field in the first half of yesterday's game and still finished with 12 points and 14 assists. He's a piece of madness wrapped in an NBA uniform. Though it's been awhile, when he has one of his big scoring days he wins you some serious cash. Dallas is slightly worse than league average against scoring point guards. Could offer Jennings a chance to pour it on.

Trey Burke - FanDuel $5,400 DraftKings $5,700 DraftStreet $11,091
Trey's been turning it on of late, playing with confidence and more than paying his salary. While his price is a little steep on DraftStreet, it's completely reasonable on FanDuel and DraftStreet. The Timberwolves have been worse than league average in every category against point guards. Look for Burke to keep his good times rolling.

Isaiah Thomas - FanDuel $7,900 DraftKings $7,600 DraftStreet $14,477
Thomas plays a ton of minutes and is fairly priced across the board today. Boogie should be back tonight but the big man's presence doesn't seem to effect IT3 one way or another. He is steady at these salaries.

John Wall - FanDuel $9,000 DraftKings $9,000 DraftStreet $17,030
Our system has Wall and Stephen Curry as nearly identical today. Their prices and expectation are pretty much a match. I'm giving Wall as the pick because I think he's quite a bit safer with a ceiling, just a bit lower than Curry, but a basement quite a bit higher.

Ricky Rubio - FanDuel $6,900 DraftKings $7,500
Still can't shoot. Still hands out tons and tons of assists and with a steal here and there for good measure.

Nate Wolters - FanDuel $4,300
A little hard to know how Wolters' role shifts with Ramon Sessions now in the mix. But if Nate is starting I think you can play him. This is still so cheap.

Brian Roberts - FanDuel $4,900
Another guy who is seeing full starter minutes and has been paying this off 5x more times than not of late. The matchup against Washington isn't ideal but the tag is so low I don't think it matters too terribly much.

 

Shooting Guards

Gordon Hayward - FanDuel $6,900 DraftKings $7,400 DraftStreet $13,639
Hayward is another guy you need to catch on the right night as he's for sure susceptible to the dud here and there. Here's an interesting stat that might only interest me: Over his last nine games Hayward has only made 3 shots or 5 shots. No other number. He made 3 shots seven times and 5 shots twice. In fact, he came back from injury on January 21st, hit ten shots and hasn't made more than five in a game since. And yet while his FGM are relatively static, his FGA are all over the map. What a weird player. Even with the poor shooting Hayward can pay these prices because of his assist and rebound numbers. And just imagine if you catch him on a night when he makes more than five shots?

Kyle Korver - FanDuel $4,800 DraftKings $5,300 DraftStreet $8,110
Put up a solid 11/7/4 line last night that more than paid the day. And while I don't see this game against the Knicks to be nearly as high scoring, Korver should see his share of looks. The Knicks got torched by everyone resembling a shooting guard last night and their starting five has some serious defensive inefficiencies (everyone not named Tyson Chandler). Korver should be solid and I like his price a lot more on FD and DS than DK.

Alec Burks - FanDuel $5,300 DraftKings $5,300
Had an off night last night, but expect him to bounce back tonight. Minnesota will have trouble guarding him around the perimeter and the TWolves' pace should enable Burks to see more opportunities. It should be said also that last night's underwhelming performance wasn't for lack of trying. He still got fifteen shots and played around his normal minutes. He just shot 33% from the field. It'll happen.

Lance Stephenson - DraftKings $7,000 DraftStreet $12,712
Lance has been quite pedestrian of late, not having had one of those stat stuffing performances in quite some time. Time to take advantage of the subsequent price dip. There is some blowout risk against the Bucks tonight with the Pacers going off at -11. But I think you can risk it with Stephenson mostly because the Bucks have no one who can cover his free-wheeling style of play.

Bradley Beal - FanDuel $6,600
This price could look silly at the end of the night. Beal is one of my favorite guys to target in the right matchup because his minutes are there every single night. He gets around 35 minutes no matter the situation. His shots are there too most nights and New Orleans is about league average against shooting guards.

Klay Thompson - DraftStreet $10,878
Grit your teeth and hit submit. His three needs to be falling but Klay's looks should be there tonight. The Nets are about average against SGs and I expect Klay to see his shots. They just need to splash.

 

Small Forwards

Josh Smith - FanDuel $8,100 DraftKings $8,000 DraftStreet $14,497
J-Smoove needs the right matchup and I think he gets it against the Mavs tonight. Smith, as always, comes with a note that he might crush your soul and leave you a weeping puddle of emotion. But he can also crush on the right night. I'm much more excited about his price on DraftStreet than everywhere else (he'll be a heavy start there) but think he is an across the board play.

Kyle Singler - FanDuel $3,900 DraftKings $4,200 DraftStreet $7,652
I'm not totally sure why his price has barely moved. He's playing huge minutes and the 35+ run would really be enough at these salaries. That he's doing his fair share of scoring is just icing. Singler is a great play tonight, one of the top SF options on FD and DS.

Paul George - FanDuel $8,500 DraftKings $8,800 DraftStreet $16,501
The All-Star break seems to have done the guy good. He's come back out of the gate hot and here's to hoping it continues. Like all Pacers tonight, one of the reasons they rate out high in the system is that Milwaukee sucks. This is a blessing and a curse because while the starters should obliterate the Bucks, it might mean they don't play as many minutes in a blowout. But strictly from a statistical standpoint, George makes a strong play.

Corey Brewer - FanDuel $4,900 DraftKings $4,900 DraftStreet $8,898
The Wolves are running on empty in terms of available players with skill. Brewer should see his full run of minutes, but that it never assured. I'm putting him on here because he rated out fairly high in our system, but he scares me a ton. I see him as a tournament play and nothing more.

Andre Iguodala - FanDuel $5,300
Crazy low price here. Take advantage if Bogut sits again. Iggy has seen a marked uptick in fantasy production with Bogut sidelined. If the big man is playing, I think I avoid Iguodala.

Caron Butler - DraftKings $4,000
Punting prices for a starter who can score. It's a shitty matchup against the Pacers but I think the price outstrips the opponent concerns.

 

Power Forwards

Nene Hilario - FanDuel $6,600 DraftKings $6,200 DraftStreet $10,782
Nene is one of the few across the board PF options I'm seeing today. While Anthony Davis is a block party waiting to happen, the rest of his defensive repertoire hasn't quite caught up. The Pelicans allow more than league average scoring and rebounding to opposing power forwards and I think you could see a healthy line for Nene. The price is especially attractive on DraftStreet.

Kevin Love - FanDuel $11,500 DraftKings $11,200 DraftStreet $23,454
Ok. The prices here are through the roof without a doubt. And our system is only lukewarm on the guy. The reason I'm putting him on here is that now that Ronnie Turiaf is down, the TWolves just have no other interior players of any real merit. This could mean even more opportunities for Love (if such a thing were even possible). Super risky considering the price tag, but if you can afford him, these prices seem at least fairly safe.

Brandon Bass - FanDuel $4,300 DraftKings $4,500 DraftStreet $10,537
If the last two nights are any indication, Bass is back to playing full starter minutes. This kind of thing is never guaranteed, but his 30+ minute run against both the Lakers and Phoenix has me encouraged. I'd temper your excitement a bit, but if the minutes are there he should be in lineups at these prices, especially on FanDuel and DraftStreet.

David West - FanDuel $6,500 DraftKings $6,400 DraftStreet $12,147
As with all Pacers, he might not see the fourth quarter. But West should dominate the stiffs who play for the Bucks.

Dante Cunningham - FanDuel $4,700 DraftKings $3,600 DraftStreet $6,754
This is a little bit of speculation, but with Turiaf out the Wolves are severely lacking in dudes who would be considered "big". Really Cunningham isn't that big, but he'll probably have to do. With prices this low I think you can take a flyer on his minutes getting an increase with Minny being so thin right now.

 

Center

DeMarcus Cousins - FanDuel $9,400 DraftKings $9,600 DraftStreet $18,570
I'm never a fan of starting a guy straight back from injury. In fact, most times I'm strictly against it. Cousins is on here tonight because center is a problem area and he is rated significantly higher in our system than anyone else in his price tier when considering his production before going down to injury. Al Jefferson has a bad matchup, Drummond is overpriced on DraftStreet and Hibbert has blowout risk. It's a risk, but these prices could look silly at the end of the night as Boston will really struggle with Cousins down low.

Andre Drummond - FanDuel $8,300 DraftKings $8,100
Drummond's prices are much more advantageous on FD and DK but that's a theme with centers today. Dallas is below league average against centers in terms of scoring and rebounding. Take a guess at what Drummond does more than anything.

Tyson Chandler - FanDuel $5,200 DraftKings $5,800
Think he is a bit overpriced on DraftStreet but is in play everywhere else because the Hawks, without Ayon or Horford just don't have anyone with the requisite size to handle Chandler. Could be in line for an easy double/double.

Roy Hibbert - FanDuel $5,600 DraftStreet $11,165
DraftStreet is tough with centers today, putting Hibbert, even with the blowout risk firmly in play.

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