Daily Fantasy Football Picks for Week 9 - FanDuel, DraftKings, Draftday, and Draftster

Whoa, it was the craziest week in fantasy football I can remember in a while. Hope you came out alright on the other side! A few words: Thank God for Double-Ups. That's all.

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Quarterbacks

Andrew Luck - FD 10100 DK 10000 DD 17300 DFSTR
After coming off a game with a rather ugly completion rate and 2 interceptions, you might be surprised to see Luck in the top spot. But the case for Luck? Simple volume. With Richardson banged up, the Colts only ran 7 plays that didn't go through Luck. 7! Granted, they were playing from behind, and that's not especially likely against the Giants -- but still. We're seeing that the Colts are happy to supplant a conventional running game for short passes to the resurgent Bradshaw, and if that continues, Luck will continue to be the safest QB in all of daily fantasy football.

Colin Kaepernick - FD 7800 DK 7000 DD 13850 DFSTR 6700
We gave you Kaepernick in our week 6 picks - the last time he faced the Rams - and he put together a career performance, throwing for 343 yards and a touch down. Russel Wilson came and torched the Rams with his legs and his arm the following week. The price on Kaepernick remains exceedingly reasonable for the upside he can provide in a given week, but as always, it comes with a little bit of safety concerns. Not a double up play due to volatility, but I actually like Kaepernick quite a bit in this match-up given his career best 63.8% completion percentage.

Russell Wilson - FD 8600 DK 7800 DD 14600 DFSTR 7100
Wilson is another guy that's coming off a rather rough performance in what should have been a great match-up, but I'm not giving up hope just yet. We've still seen what he's capable of, and it's more than anyone else in this price range, and in a week with some huge names on buys, he's right there in terms of both upside and safety with anyone else regardless of price. Our projection system likes him against the Raiders, which is interesting, because the Raiders have been better than league average at preventing passing yards this week. Perhaps it notices that the Raiders have faced an extremely low quality of opposing passers - Brian Hoyer, Carson Palmer, Tom Brady when he was bad, Ryan Tannehill, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and then a tough match-up in Philip Rivers. Either way, with Seattle leaning away from the run, I like Wilson quite a bit.

Drew Brees - FD 9100 DK 8300 DD 16100 DFSTR 7800
Brees has become something of a forgotten man after a slow start to the season, but he absolutely has the same upside of any quarterback alive. And getting him at less than top shelf prices? Very intriguing. Sure, his lack of a true #1 wide receiver hurts, and Graham doesn't quite look himself, but completing 84% of his passes for 311 yards and 3 touchdowns on national television hopefully quieted some doubters. He now has posted 4 300 yard weeks in a row. In this week's tilt he's going up against a Panthers defense that shut down the aforementioned Wilson, but the Brees-run offense looks a lot more like the Chicago or Green Bay offenses that torched the Panthers rather than the run-first Seahawks.

Tom Brady - FD 9000 DK 8400 DD 15250 DFSTR
Full disclosure - I'm actually bucking our projection system a little bit in this recommendation. It can be hard parsing full season performance from recent performance, but it sure looks like Brady is back to "his old self," and it's awfully tough to imagine him not paying off his $9,000 FanDuel price in a prime time match-up against Peyton Manning and the Broncos. Vegas likes this game as the highest total BY FAR (55), and those points are almost certainly going to flow through Brady's again-capable right arm. Maybe it's not a cash game play based on what we saw earlier this season, but man - the upside here is unreal.

Ryan Fitzpatrick - FD 6400 DK 5700 DD 10750 DFSTR 4900
The Texans have "unleashed" Ryan Fitzpatrick a little bit more in the last few games that it looked like they would earlier this season, with Fitz attempting 32 and 35 passes respectively. He's obviously not an elite quarterback by any stretch of the imagination, but playing him this week is a crack at getting a nice points per dollar multiplier from a cheap QB while paying up for higher upside guys at other position. In a week that doesn't have a ton of games with high over/under totals, this might not be a terrible play. Even with the anomalous shut out of the Giants, the Eagles are still allowing the 6th most passing yards per game this season, and Fitz and company could wind up taking advantage.

 

Running Backs

Andre Ellington - FD 7700 DK 5900 DD 12500 DFSTR 6900
We gave you Ellington in the week 8 picks, and he came out with another huge touch week - handling the ball 26 times. He only converted that into 85 yards, but he did punch one in the end zone, and you were probably happy with what he was able to provide you with. I've made this comparison before, but Ellington is basically a homeless man's Barry Sanders - getting stuffed a handful of times before breaking off a few big runs. You love Ellington's safety simply due to his incredible usage, and love his occasional upside for his ability to break a big play. With goal line vulture Stepfan Taylor sidelined with a calf injury, one has to think Ellington's upside will only increase. As for the match-up? The Cowboys are roughly league average against the run. So this one mostly comes down to opportunity, especially since the Cards might be playing from ahead against a banged up Romo or a back up QB.

Arian Foster - FD 9400 DK 9900 DD 14800 DFSTR 8000
If high priced running backs are your thing, Arian Foster remains a pretty interesting option this week. The safety is clear from the simple amount of work he's getting - he's in the mid 20s in terms of touches almost no matter what happens in the game itself. But the real sell for me is the red zone usage. His 22 red zone touches (and 8 red zone touch downs!) give him the super-elite upside that you just don't see from many in the running back position. Dallas' league average running defense poses no threat to a talent like this.

Mark Ingram - FD 6100 DK 5500 DD 11000 DFSTR 3200
Hat tip to DFSR co-founder Doug Norrie for alerting me to Ingram on Sunday morning, but I'm sorry I didn't include him anywhere in the picks. With both Khiry Robinson and Pierre Thomas sidelined with injury, the Saints made it clear that they are more than happy to stick with 1 back if that appears to be working. 174 total yards and a touch down, including a couple of nice long runs that have you dreaming on Ingram as a true fantasy #1 in games that Robinson and Thomas miss. It looks like we'll get one more such game this weekend against the 5th worst Panthers rush defense, and I'll be using Ingram with bells on in any game where I think the Saints can get out to a lead.

Jerick McKinnon - FD 6300 DK 4700 DD 8750 DFSTR 3700
McKinnon looked great from a yards per carry perspective once again during week 8, but I didn't like to see Asiata's touch % creeping upward. So what's he doing in this column? It's a combination of price and opportunity. Watching the Redskins give up more than 200 yards of total offense to Demarco Murray has me thinking that this game could turn out a lot different for the Skins if Colt McCoy winds up making a few mistakes against a tough Vikings Defense. If they are, the underpriced McKinnon could see a jump in his touches, which one would believe would correspond to a pretty nice little fantasy day.

Giovani Bernard - FD 8500 DK 6600 DD 12950 DFSTR 6800
Bernard's usage seems like it's tracking a pretty clear pattern this season. When the Bengals are ahead, they give him the rock. When they're trailing, his touches will be limited. In any week, we're not going to consider him a safety play, but against a Jaguars squad that one has to the think the Bengals can beat somewhat handily, I think we'll see a 20+ touch game from Bernard. In games where he's had 20+ touches this year? He's averaged more than 145 total yards per game. A big yards total and a score is absolutely in play against the hapless Jags. Monitor the injury situation, but there's something here.

Denard Robinson - FD 6700 DK 4800 DD 9450 DFSTR 3000
Now, we'd normally advise you stay away from running backs on bad teams... but Robinson's usage seems somewhat match-up proof. He had 19 terrific touches for 108 yards in an un-competitive game against Miami, so his role is looking somewhat assured at this point. And this week, Robinson will face a very generous Cincinnati run defense, which has allowed the 4th most yards per game to opposing running backs this season. Robinson is a big time upside play that has more upside than you might think, especially for these prices.

Ronnie Hillman - FD 7200 DK 5600 DD 11450 DFSTR 4100
Just because you have to love feature backs in games with huge point totals. Hillman has seen 27, 18, and 23 touches as the feature back in Denver, and it makes no sense that he continues to be priced like a guess and check guy. Juwan Thompson swooping in on the goal line carries certainly limits Hillman's upside, but New England has actually been terrible against the run this year in games that were actually competitive, as their 4.6 yards per carry allowed suggests. I like Hillman as a cash game play.

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Wide Receivers

Antonio Brown - FD 9000 DK 9100 DD 14550 DFSTR 9000
Brown is basically the coolest wide receiver in football. When he's not throwing for touchdowns or making ridiculous one handed catches, he's putting up consistent numbers week after week after week. Now the NFL's most targeted receiver, Brown does it in a way that most of the league's best do not. While Nelson or Jones will have the occasional no-show, Brown has been between 84 and 133 yards every game this season, been targeted 10 or more times in all games but 1, and sprinkled in some MONSTERS along the way. He didn't have a great game against Baltimore the last time around, but I trust the Ravens' season long struggle against the pass (9th worst in the league) more than I do a single good game they played.

Kelvin Benjamin - FD 7000 DK 6600 DD 10950 DFSTR 6700
We told you it was Benjamin's lowest price of the season several weeks ago, and it's sure looking like that will be the case. The Panthers rookie flat out outplayed Richard Sherman, who attempted to shadow him last Sunday. While his 4 for 94 was fine, it could have been even more if Newton had connected with him on a wide open bomb that got slightly overthrown. While the Saints did a nice job against Green Bay's #1 last week, Benjamin is a totally different animal athletically than Nelson, and I think he has the potential to put up an absolutely huge week in a game where the Panthers rate to be playing from behind.

Dez Bryant - FD 8800 DK 8200 DD 13500 DFSTR 8200
The Cardinals are the only team in the league to allow more than 300 yards in the air per game this season. Bryant is the 6th most targeted receiver in the league, and 4 of the top 6 most targeted receivers are taking a week off. Now, Bryant isn't a guy you can pencil in as a safety play in spite of his targets. You can't be sure about the QB situation, but if Romo plays, Dez is easily the guy with the 2nd highest ceiling of the week after Antonio Brown.

T.Y. Hilton - FD 8100 DK 8100 DD 12900 DFSTR 7300Hilton has 385 yards receiving and 2 touch downs in the past 2 weeks. Ya dig? With Reggie Wayne's status uncertain (and his effectiveness in question regardless of whether or not he plays), Hilton is one of the clear #1s in the game today. He'd be a lot higher (possibly #1 overall) in my rankings if not for his red zone usage - his 5 targets in the red zone given the Colts' opportunities is rather uninspiring - but his big play ability gives him a chance to score regardless. Nonetheless, taking him against the 10th worst Giants passing defense seems like an easy one.

Andrew Hawkins - FD 6400 DK 4900 DD 9200 DFSTR 4000It's been bittersweet to see Hawkins come on, given that we recommended him all season until his last 2 break out games! But it looks like Brian Hoyer has observed what we knew all along - Hawkins is the best receiver on the Browns by a mile. I was a little concerned that Cameron would come back and take some of Hawkins' targets, but the Browns wide out almost doubled the next most targeted receiver last week, and it looks like he'll be good for 8-10 targets per game going forward. If he gets the targets I'm projecting, he'll be a PPR monster and a more than serviceable option at these prices regardless of who the Browns play. This terrific match-up against the league's 3rd worst passing defense? Icing on the cake.

Andre Johnson - FD 6900 DK 5500 DD 11500 DFSTR 6400
DeAndre Hopkins - FD 6900 DK 5400 DD 9700 DFSTR 4800
I like both of these guys about the same - Andre Johnson for cash games (due to the targets), and DeAndre Hopkins for GPPs (due to the yards per catch) - this week against the Eagles. You can basically read the Fitzpatrick write-up above and figure out where I'm going with this. If the Eagles are going to play as fast as they've been playing recently, it's going to open up opportunities for people who make their living catching the ball. With a combined 23 targets last week, the Texans receivers are going to be the safest options with the greatest upside in the mid-tier price range.

Allen Robinson - FD 6500 DK 4900 DD 9300 DFSTR 4000
It feels weird to see Robinson continue to be priced this way, considering that he's averaged 70 yards and a touchdown during the past two weeks, leads his team in red zone targets, and plays on a team that will always have garbage time passes to throw around. Robinson continues to be lumped in, price wise, with hope and prayer guys who get 4-6 targets a game. I suggest banking his floor of 50 yards on 5 catches with room for MUCH more against a below average Bengals defense and spending up elsewhere as well.

 

Tight Ends

Rob Gronkowski - FD 7900 DK 7600 DD 13850 DFSTR I26
So long, days where you could play Rob Gronkowski for cheaper than guys with 1/3 of his upside. Like we told you in our week 8 picks, last week will be Gronk's cheapest price of the season. The remarkable thing? He could STILL represent a discount. On a points per dollar basis, Gronk is still a great way to invest a good chunk of salary at a high potential multiplier. Forget about the fact that he's playing more than 90% of the snaps now and that he's Brady's fist read on nearly every play, and focus on Gronk's effectiveness in the red zone. He's on pace for almost a touchdown per game for his career. That's better than... everyone. Ever. Health is always a concern, but in daily fantasy football, we couldn't care less. Watch for Brady and Gronk triumphantly banging their helmets together while Peyton Manning disbelievingly looks up at the jumbotron.

Larry Donnell - FD 5400 DK 4600 DD 8300 DFSTR 4200
Donnell admittedly took a couple of weeks off there, but he's still looking like a player in the Giants' offense, especially with Victor Cruz out of the picture. The big concern here are the two fourth quarter fumbles in his last game. If Coughlin is still holding those over his head, we could be in line for a no show, but Donnell is my highest upside cheap TE of the week. His 11 red zone targets this year should tell you most of what you need to know against a Colts team that couldn't handle Heath Miller last week.

Jimmy Graham - FD 7000 DK 6700 DD 12450 DFSTR 3000
Greg Olsen - FD 7200 DK 6000 DD 10300 DFSTR 5500
I should point out that, as an organization, DFSR will almost certainly play neither of these guys this week. If I go expensive, I'm going with Gronkowski. If I don't I'll plug in a cheap guy that makes sense with the rest of my roster configuration. Rather than give you a bunch of plays that are pretty much the same at a position where you're only playing 1 guy, I'll just let you know that our projection system likes both Graham and Olsen quite a bit in their respective match-ups. I'm putting Graham atop the list because it looked for all the world like he was back against Green Bay. I think he would have seen more of his characteristic 10 targets instead of the 6 he received had the game not largely been in hand. While Olsen was shut down last week, that's a pretty distinct outlier in a season where he's averaged more than 7 targets per game otherwise. He's also a red zone monster, and represents both safety and upside from this position, as well.

 

Kickers

Just a strategy note on kickers, since I figure I'll share what's working well for me this season.

I've been taking kickers against teams that don't have spectacular defenses in decent weather conditions. I don't look at the kicker's individual "skill" at all, just opportunity. Typically kicker will be the very last spot I fill, and while there are situations I'll avoid (I wouldn't play kickers against Seattle, for instance, or any team that's a 6.5 point or more underdog), I think you can justify playing just about any other kicker in a GPP format especially. Don't sweat this too much - just pick a guy that fits in with the rest of what you want to do and go from there.

 

Defense & Special Teams

The Pricey with great match-ups:
Seattle Seahawks
Cincinnati Bengals
I prefer the Bengals due to their opponent - the Jags 33 sacks allowed is 5 more than any other team in the NFL, but I don't think you can go wrong against either of these desperately awful offenses. I've been not paying up for defenses this year, but watching teams with Miami's defense crush has me rethinking my approach for this week. And taking two decent defenses against turnover prone teams with the 1st and 2nd fewest total yards in the league? Hmm...

Kansas City Chiefs
Another expensive defense with a terrific opponent. It sounds like Michael Vick will be quarterbacking the New York Jets this week, which makes sense, given that Geno Smith connecting with more defensive players than offensive ones last week. But still, you just can't trust the Jets to do anything but suck completely on offense. There's literally no one behind Eric Decker, and the combination of fumbles or picks from Vick leaves the Chiefs' defensive upside sky-high.

The Mid-range
Minnesota Vikings
We've given you the Vikes in our picks articles these last two weeks, and they've given you 15 and 19 points respectively. This week? They get a full week to plan for Colt McCoy. I honestly kind of like McCoy as a person based on what I've seen, but I'm not inspired by his nearly 1:1 TD:INT ratio for his career. The Vikings are tied for having the 2nd most sacks in the league, and dealing with opposing jerseys in the backfield has never been McCoy's strong suit. I think last Monday's victory is a distant memory by the time this game comes to a conclusion next Sunday, and the Vikings' defense puts up another double digit fantasy performance in week 9.

Cleveland Browns
The Browns have been pretty solid as a fantasy defense this year, and now get a very nice match-up against the league's third worst offense in terms of yards per game. And it's tough to forget the huge games the Bucs have allowed to opposing defenses this year (last week against Minny, earlier this season against Atlanta). You don't love the Browns because they don't get tons of sacks, but the Bucs are so mistake prone that it might not make a difference.

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