Daily Fantasy NFL Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - Week 9 Sunday 11/3/24

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Quarterbacks

Jalen Hurts FD 9300 DK 7800
Opponent JAX
Proj Points FD - 26.6 DK - 26.6

The Jacksonville Jaguars rank dead last in defensive DVOA this season and Jalen Hurts is QB6 in fantasy with the other five guys above him all having played one more game. With the way they use him around the goal line, combined with the rushing yards (255, 6th among QBs), the floor is just so high here. It’s tough between him and Lamar Jackson in the highest price tier, but I’ll take the matchup here on the tiebreaker.

Jameis Winston FD 7000 DK 5400
Opponent LAC
Proj Points FD - 18.5 DK - 18.5

He’s just too cheap on DraftKings, where the savings really matters if you can find it at quarterback. We usually don’t recommend non-running quarterbacks in cash games, but Jameis Winston stepped right in last week for Deshaun Watson and threw the ball 41 times for 334 yards and three touchdowns. Sure, there were interceptions, but that’s to be expected in his profile. I can live with it assuming the plan is for the Browns to throw a bunch in this game.

Running Back

Alvin Kamara FD 8800 DK 7800
Opponent CAR
Proj Points FD - 19.83 DK - 22.83

One thing that’s worked all season, is playing guys against the Carolina Panthers. They are just so, so awful having allowed 271 points to opponents. The next-closest team, the Jags, have *only* allowed 224. That’s simply insane. The Saints get Derek Carr back for this game and are without Rasheed Shaheed as a pass-catcher. I think playing Kamara and stacking him with Chris Olave (who we’ll get to in a second) is a very high floor cash play.

Aaron Jones FD 7500 DK 6600
Opponent IND
Proj Points FD - 18.75 DK - 20.78

Kind of out of nowhere, Aaron Jones played 92% of the Vikings' offensive snaps in Week 8 and touched the ball 21 total times (19 carries, two targets). It only led to 95 total yards and no touchdowns, but the usage and on-field time was about as good as you’ll see these days. With he Vikings -5.5 home favorites against the Colts, I’ll take Jones at a discount if this is anywhere near the kind of usage he sees.

Bijan Robinson FD 8500 DK 7400
Opponent DAL
Proj Points FD - 19.54 DK - 21.41

The 51.5 total for the Cowboys and Falcons game is the highest on the slate and should be a game to target. Dallas is the fourth-worst defensive DVOA team in the league and allows the opposing team to play at an above-average pace over the course of the season. Bijan cedes carries to Tyler Allgeier this season which is always a concern.

Even last week in a close game, Robinson played *only* 68% of the game but ended up with 13 carries and seven targets. He did finish with 106 total yards and a touchdown. With the Cowboys banged up on defense, I think the floor is pretty high on Bijan here.

Wide Receiver

Ja'Marr Chase FD 9500 DK 8600
Opponent LV
Proj Points FD - 21.21 DK - 25.64

Tee Higgins sat last week and it isn’t look good for this Sunday either. Ja'Marr Chase was an obvious play in that situation and had 11 targets on 37 Joe Burrow pass attempts. That was good for 30% target share though he only converted that to 54 total yards. Still, the usage is going to be among the highest of the week again if this is the same situation.

Chris Olave FD 7100 DK 6100
Opponent CAR
Proj Points FD - 15.34 DK - 18.67

Shaheed is out, the Saints are playing the Panthers, and Chris Olave is coming off a 14-target game in Week 8. Plus, there’s a QB upgrade coming with Carr back under center. Olave seems like a smash play here, and like I said with Kamara, it is a pretty easy call to stack these two as the dudes who should see production consolidated between then in the pass and run game.

Jalen Coker FD 5200 DK 3600
Opponent NO
Proj Points FD - 11.95 DK - 14.79

Xavier Legette FD 5700 DK 5300
Opponent NO
Proj Points FD - 11.12 DK - 13.77

This is a weird situation with Bryce Young under center and Diontae Johnson now shipped off to Baltimore. Leggette and Coker were the target leaders last week, with Coker’s 78 yards a team-high. However, David Moore played the most snaps, and Jonathan Mingo was in there as well.

The team stinks, and Young might be a scrub, but they are always playing from behind, and the wideouts are cheap on a week. You really use the savings in some spots.

Tight End

Mike Gesicki FD 5400 DK 3100
Opponent LV
Proj Points FD - 10.85 DK - 13.52

With Tee Higgins out last week, it seemed like one of the other wideouts would step up alongside Ja'Marr Chase but it was actually Mike Gesicki who got a bunch of the looks. His eight targets were good for a 22% target share, second only to Chase.

Kyle Pitts FD 6000 DK 4900
Opponent DAL
Proj Points FD - 10.76 DK - 13.02

I prefer the savings on Gesicki by a lot, but there’s no denying Pitts has turned it on in recent weeks. Last time out, he went for 4/91/2, and the week before that, it was 7/65 on nine targets. It’s close on FanDuel because the prices aren’t too different, but on DK, it’s Gesicki by a mile in terms of savings.