Daily Fantasy NFL Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - Week 5 Sunday 10/13/24

 

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Quarterbacks

Jayden Daniels FD 9100 DK 7600
Opponent CAR
Proj Points FD - 27.64 DK - 27.64

It’s crazy that we are writing a rookie in Week 7 who also happens to be about as expensive as they come on either site. But here we are with Jayden Daniels, who’s been one of the best QBs in the league, rookie or now.

He’s facing off against an abysmal Carolina Panthers defense that gets shredded basically every single week. They’ve allowed 34 or more points to opponents in each of the last three weeks, and it could be the case again here.

The Commanders are -8 home favorites, and Daniels has been the third-best fantasy quarterback this season behind only Lamar Jackson and Baker Mayfield (right?). It’s a smash spot and we are going to want pieces of this offense for sure. The Panthers are just that bad.

Sam Darnold FD 7500 DK 6200
Opponent DET
Proj Points FD - 20.64 DK - 20.64

We usually only want to roster QBs who can get out there and run, but there’s a case for Darnold here, especially at his DraftKings price. He offers decent savings compared to Daniels and this could be a high-scoring affair with the Lions. The game has perfect conditions in the dome and the Vikings will have to keep pace with that high-powered offense.

Darnold had a rough game against the Jets, but before that had thrown 11 TDs and just three INTS through his first four games. I think we can run him here if pivoting off Jayden.

Running Back

Bijan Robinson FD 8200 DK 7100
Opponent SEA
Proj Points FD - 19.2 DK - 21.12

Are we worried that Tyler Allgeier still gets a lot of carries in this offense? Of course, the dude actually out-carried Bijan 18-115 last week, even though the snap count was 56% to 41% in favor of Robinson. It still just means that Bijan isn’t a bell-cow back or anything on this squad.

But that’s also okay because he’s also averaging right around 14 carries and four targets a game in one of the game’s better offenses. The price is up there, but I think we’ll be able to find enough savings at the WR position to make it worth our while.

And the Falcons are -3 favorites at home in a game tied for the highest total on the slate.

Kyren Williams FD 8600 DK 8100
Opponent LV
Proj Points FD - 20.6 DK - 22.1

The Raiders aren’t as bad as the Panthers or the Jaguars on defense, but they are still pretty bad, leaving us in a good spot to target the Rams’ running game. And the Rams running game is basically all Kyren Williams so far. Los Angeles is coming off the bye, and in Week 5, Williams took 86% of the team’s snaps.

He went for 22/101/2 in that one. This could be a smash spot for one of the true bellcow backs in football. A rare sight these days.

Consider:

Austin Ekeler if Brian Robinson Jr. can’t suit up again this week. In Week 6, Ekeler played 80% of the offensive snaps and totaled 14 touches. Unfortunately, he turned that into only 68 yards. But the passing game work is still very encouraging.

Ty Chandler if Aaron Jones can’t go here against the Lions. Chandler would likely see the lion’s share of the touches at running back if that’s the case.

Wide Receiver

Drake London FD 7500 DK 6900
Opponent SEA
Proj Points FD - 17.36 DK - 21.23

Drake London’s targets over the last three weeks have been 10, 13, and 12. That’s good for a 28% target share in that stretch. He’s an alpha WR1, and being able to stack the Falcons’ first running option and first receiving option in cash games should give us a high floor. London is still a relative bargain on both sites, considering he’s WR14 in price on FD and WR13 on DK.

Terry McLaurin FD 7200 DK 6800
Opponent CAR
Proj Points FD - 15 DK - 18.38

Noah Brown FD 5000 DK 4000
Opponent CAR
Proj Points FD - 10.09 DK - 12.18

The Commanders' pass game hasn’t been the easiest to figure out this season, with Jayden Daniels spreading the ball around a bit more than we thought earlier in the season. But even though it’s not crazy high volume, Terry McLaurin is still leading the team in targets through the first six weeks with more than seven per game.

And Noah Brown is second on the team, seeing a season-high eight looks last week. It’s a bit risky because the Commanders don’t run the same WR sets, and Brown did only play 64% of the snaps last week. But the matchup is so choice and he’s so cheap that I think we can take the risk.

Tight End

Grant Calcaterra FD 5100 DK 3200
Opponent NYG
Proj Points FD - 7.99 DK - 9.67

It looks like Dallas Goedert is going to sit out this game meaning Grant Calcaterra would be in line for a huge snap count. In Week 6 he played 92% of the snaps with Goedert going down early, finishing with four catches for 67 yards. This would be another potential smash spot against the Giants, though the Eagles clearly have plenty of other guys further up the food chain in the offense.

Colby Parkinson FD 5200 DK 3800
Opponent LV
Proj Points FD - 9.32 DK - 11.94

Don’t look now, but Colby Parkinson is actually TE5 in targets this season with 32, a welcome sign at a position that’s been mostly trash. Cooper Kupp is returning here, which will probably get in the way of any crazy target share for Parkinson (13 targets in Week 5), but I do think this spot is so good against the Raiders that you can take a look.