Daily Fantasy NFL Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - Week 4 Sunday 9/29/24

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Quarterbacks

Jayden Daniels FD 8200 DK 6500
Opponent ARI
Proj Points FD - 21.86 DK - 21.86

Jayden Daniels already looks like a superstar quarterback, and we are only three weeks into his rookie season. But a primetime game that had him throwing for 254 yards and two touchdowns while also running 39 yards and a score will do that. Now, he gets a Cardinals defense ranked in the bottom third in DVOA so far in a game with the highest total (50.5) on the week.

It’s a fantastic spot, and Daniels is primed for another big game. The running gives him such a high floor independent of the game script, and the price, especially on DraftKings, hasn’t fully gotten there yet.

Justin Fields FD 6800 DK 5500
Opponent IND
Proj Points FD - 20.65 DK - 20.65

The Steelers, with Justin Fields as their quarterback, are road favorites heading into Indianapolis this week. What a time to be alive. Fields, filling in for the injured Russell Wilson, has the Steelers 3-0, and he’s looked competent/ good through the first three games.

He’s completing 73% of his passes, though the volume has been on the lower side, with the Steelers clearly wanting to run the ball as much as possible. Fields is part of that though, with 28 carries on the season.

With dome conditions against a team that likes to play fast, this is a perfect spot for Fields and his DraftKings price is still much too cheap.

Running Back

Breece Hall FD 8000 DK 7800
Opponent DEN
Proj Points FD - 20.66 DK - 23.4

Breece Hall sits sixth overall in total usage (rushing attempts + targets) on the season and that’s even with the Jets sprinkling in healthy dosages of Braelon Allen along the way. Hall remains one of the best fantasy options around and his 19 passing targets ranks first at the position.

The Broncos haven’t been terrible on defense this season, but this is still a good spot for Breece, who hasn’t seen the price move a ton in three weeks. With the Jets -7.5 home favorites, we are in the running back sweet spot in cash.

James Conner FD 7500 DK 6500
Opponent WAS
Proj Points FD - 16.95 DK - 18.3

Speaking of running back sweet spots, we are just about there with James Conner as well. The Cardinals are -3.5 home favorites against the Redskins and we’ve already mentioned this game has the highest total going. Washington ranks dead last in defensive DVOA on the season, and Conner should see a heavy dose of touches.

His lack of receiving targets (six so far) is a bit concerning, but he played 75% of the running back snaps last week. Not many others have this kind of tole. This is a breakout spot for Conner, who is underpriced.

Najee Harris FD 6600 DK 5600
Opponent IND
Proj Points FD - 13.84 DK - 14.95

Jaylen Warren could sit this one out with a knee issue, and there are already reasons to play Najee Harris here. He isn’t a breakaway back, but the ground game work has been there so far this season, putting up 209 yards through the first three games. Plus, last week, he saw five targets in the passing game.

That latter stat could be an outlier, or it could be a sign of things to come in this offense. If he’s going to get passing-down looks, then this price is too low for the matchup.

Wide Receiver

Nico Collins FD 7700 DK 7200
Opponent JAX
Proj Points FD - 18.77 DK - 22.66

Stefon Diggs FD 7100 DK 6600
Opponent JAX
Proj Points FD - 16.34 DK - 20.11

The Texans really struggled last game to get anything (at all) going, putting up just seven points against the Vikings in a bad loss. This is a bounce back spot without a doubt, facing off against a Jaguars team that already looks like dead men walking. The Jags are the 4th-worst defensive DVOA team and allow the fifth worst yards per pass attempt and third most opponents passing yards per game. Josh Allen shredded them last week.

Stacking the Houston wide receivers in this matchup could be the play, especially if they are going to struggle running the ball again without Joe Mixon.

Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs have combined for 53% of the CJ Stroud target share so far this season, consolidating a great deal of the passing game. Neither is coming cheap, mind you, but on FanDuel, putting them both into cash lineups isn’t all that much of a stretch. I like going back to the Texans here based on the matchup.

Diontae Johnson FD 6200 DK 5600
Opponent CIN
Proj Points FD - 14.16 DK - 17.58

A little dose of Andy Dalton has all the Panthers needed to get things going. That, and benching Bryce Young, maybe for good. Dalton came in and immediately lit a fire for this offense, completing 70% of his passes for 319 yards and three touchdowns.

The biggest beneficiary was Diontae Johnson who saw 14 targets (38% share) on his way to an 8/122/1 line. His price is still in line with Bryce Young’s awfulness and not Andy Dalton’s amazingness. Play him easily here.

If Deebo Samuel and George Kittle are both out again, then Jauan Jennings would be a strong play once again. We landed with him in our optimal DraftKings lineups for Week 3, pushing those toward the top.

Tight End

Dallas Goedert FD 7500 DK 5100
Opponent TB
Proj Points FD - 12.79 DK - 16.07

We gave Dallas Goedert as a cash game play last week because the Eagles were going to be without A.J. Brown in the passing game. It paid off in the biggest way possible, with Goedert going for 10/170 on 11 targets. It could be more of the same if Philly is without Brown again as well as Devontae Smith who suffered a concussion in Week 3.

Brock Bowers FD 6500 DK 5600
Opponent CLE
Proj Points FD - 11.84 DK - 14.9

Man, the tight end has been such a garbage position this season (and other seasons), with very little hope in sight around most dudes. Even in his rookie season, Brock Bowers already leads all tight ends in receiving targets, above Trey McBride, who might sit this week. We are at a place where you either pay all the way up for this small tier of TEs or just punt the position away completely.

Consider Elijah Higgins if Trey McBride is out this week with a concussion.