New York Knicks' Jalen Brunson waits for play too resume during an NBA basketball game against the Chicago Bulls Wednesday, Dec. 14, 2022, in Chicago. (AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast)
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Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 49.53 DK - 53.41
Julius Randle will miss extended time after dislocating his shoulder this weekend. It’s a big loss for the Knicks and he was one of the better fantasy producers on the season. But it will also mean tons of opportunities opening up for this team while Randle is out of the mix. Brunson isn’t the biggest beneficiary, but he’s a big one, going from 29% usage on the season to almost 32% when Randle is off the court.
And in terms of playmaking, he should see the ball in his hands more in general. The Knicks also get a great matchup against the Hornets and I expect these guys to be chalkier plays across the board.
Opponent - UTA
Proj Pts FD - 35.98 DK - 38.72
Cam Johnson returns for the Nets tonight (so does Ben Simmons, mind you) but Dorian Finney-Smith is out after twisting an ankle last game. That should mean Cam Thomas sticking in the starting lineup at least for this one. The Nets have shuttled him in and out of the role, but he’s coming off a 37-point game against the Rockets that saw him go 11-19 from the field and 12-15 from the line. He needs to score to hit value, which is a dicier proposition, but the price is low enough on both sites that I’m not sweating it too hard.
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 32.14 DK - 34.47
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 33.06 DK - 36.06
The Spurs come into this game with one of the highest implied totals on the slate, sitting at -4 favorites against the Wizards in a game with a 240 over/under. Tre Jones is locked into starting point guard duties now, with double-digit assist games in two of his last four. He’s not a candidate to see huge usage on this team, but that’s fine considering his current role. He’s been able to get after it on the defensive end, notching 11 steals in the last five games.
Jeremy Sochan, meanwhile, can be a bit hit-or-miss these days, especially seeing as how he’s playing more of the power forward role rather than the point-Sochan we saw earlier in the season. That being said, there are still ceiling games in there, going off for 31 points just two games ago against the Trailblazers. The Spurs are in such a good spot here against the Wiz, and have concentrated the teams’ minutes some. It makes for a good cash game stack.
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 30.59 DK - 33.42
Josh Hart should join the Knicks starting lineup in place of Julius Randle and is now in line to play major minutes for this squad. He’s not a one-to-one fill-in for Randle, but New York doesn’t really have that on the roster anyway. Hart has struggled from beyond the arc this season, shooting only 32% from three.
But he rebounds the position pretty well all things considered, can get this team out in transition, and has a high floor at these prices. Again, the big hope here is that he starts and the minutes press into the mid-to-high 30s which would make him one of the best values on the slate.
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 44.34 DK - 48.65
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 34.19 DK - 36.84
On such a huge slate, it can feel weird stacking just one game. But that might be where we are with the Wizards-Spurs match. Of course, the over-under is the highest of the day at 240. That makes sense, considering these teams are 25th and 26th in defensive efficiency on the season. Plus, they run the first and fourth-fastest paces in the league.
That is the dream spot for DFS value, meaning getting over the field on this one should make for plenty of upside. It helps they also both stink so blowouts aren’t as big a risk here. Both Kyle Kuzma and Deni Avdija should see minutes in the 30s with tremendous upside on both at their current price points.
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 55.94 DK - 56.88
Victor Wembanyama isn’t playing massive minutes, but at least the Spurs have increased the run to about 30 on a game-by-game basis. That’s enough for this phenomenon to get there at his current pricing against the sieve that is the Washington Wizards' defense.
Over his last 10 games, Wemby is averaging 25 points, 10 rebounds, and 3+ blocks+steals in about 26 minutes per. Few other players have the kind of fantasy points-per-minute upside as this dude, making him a relative smash play in this matchup. The only concern is that his minutes are basically capped at this point. But for sub-$9K on DraftKings, we will live with it.
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 44.52 DK - 45.42
The Knicks were already fine playing Isaiah Hartenstein major minutes in the starting role, and that is likely to get even easier now with Julius Randle out. The good news for Hartenstein as well is that he sees a major usage bump with Randle off the court as well. Throughout the season, the usage is sitting at a paltry 11%, but that goes up and over 15% with Randle out. He’s not a candidate to take tons of shots, but this is more than enough to get the job done.
Strongly consider Nicolas Claxton (FD 7800 DK 6900) with Day’Ron Sharpe out and Dorian Finney-Smith set to miss time as well.
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