Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Doncic dribbles the ball against the Phoenix Suns during the first half of an NBA basketball game in Phoenix, Wednesday, Oct. 19, 2022. (AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin)
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Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 58.21 DK - 63.04
There are going to be some tough decisions on this massive slate of games with superstars and a bunch of other guys in amazing spots. The Mavericks are going to be without Kyrie Irving for this game, and that’s going to put Luka Doncic in the position of basically doing everything for this team.
Luka goes from a 35% usage rate to a 36% rate with Kyrie off the court, but the on-ball time and assists climb as well. The price is through the roof for sure so it’s not a total lock here, but along with Joel Embiid, no other players have higher floors (and ceilings) than Luka on this slate.
Opponent - UTA
Proj Pts FD - 61.15 DK - 60.42
With some savings at power forward and center, we could be in the market for starting two higher-priced guards on this slate. Now, fitting Luka and SGA together in a lineup isn’t easy, but the latter is also in an incredible spot here as well.
The Thunder have a 122.5 projected total against the Jazz, and Shai has been amazing this season. He’s averaging a 30.5/ 6.2/ 5.6 line with 2.8 steals per game as well. The efficiency is about as good as you’ll get from a guard, and he has a very high floor for about $1K less than Luka.
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 40.2 DK - 44.74
I’d much prefer playing Anfernee Simons if I knew that Malcolm Brogdon was going to sit again, but either way we are in a good spot here. Simons, since returning from injury, has been playing major minutes and taking a ton of shots. He’s averaging 24 shots per game over the last two, with 29 points and six assists per game in that stretch. The price hasn’t fully adjusted to him being all the way back, and we have a good chance of keeping buying here in the short term.
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 41.64 DK - 46.58
The Pistons are going to win at some point, right? Right? It’s been a lot of games, 19 in fact, since that happened, and the run has been a new low point for the franchise. But here they get one of the best DFS matchups around against the Pacers, who run the fastest pace in the league by a lot, and this game has a 247 over/ under, the highest of the night.
Cade has still been productive, even in the losses, putting up double-digit assists in two of the last three games with 20 ppg during that stretch as well. I think he can get it done at these prices if the Pistons keep it close, but that might be asking a lot.
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 30.89 DK - 35.38
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 30.24 DK - 31.75
Kyrie Irving is out, and Josh Green is on the shelf as well. That should mean Tim Hardaway Jr. moving into the starting lineup, and Derrick Jones Jr. also seeing a lot of run with Grant Williams hurts. THJ played 37 minutes after Kyrie went down last game and finished with 20 points on 7-12 shooting plus four rebounds as well. I do think the usage should be a bit higher here and that kind of minutes run gives him a very high floor at these prices.
Meanwhile, Derrick Jones Jr. played 39 minutes in that game against the Trailblazers, ending up with a well-rounded 14 points, eight rebounds, and four blocks+steals. He’s able to get after it on the defensive end, which really helps, and the usage has been fine. He’s taken double-digit shots in three of the last four games and will take threes as well.
I still like Bojan Bogdanovic (FD 6200 DK 6500) at these prices and think the minutes run should be pretty high as long as the game stays close. He struggled against Orlando but had been good the first two games out of the gate after returning from injury.
Max Strus (FD 6000 DK 6400) is also an interesting play and should see more minutes with Evan Mobley out tonight.
There is a good chance Joel Embiid (FD 12900 DK 11700) is the chalk play here considering how much he’s wrecked the Wizards. But fitting his price with the other guards, combined with the cheap center options and we are in a tricky spot.
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 38.09 DK - 39.88
No Evan Mobley for the Cavaliers tonight which should, in theory, lead to a lot of Jarrett Allen run. He didn’t play a ton in the last game in this same situation, which is a bit concerning, but the Magic run some bigger lineups, so Allen would theoretically have a very high floor here. He’s a double-double waiting to happen in this situation and the rebounding rate goes up with Mobley off the court.
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 27.23 DK - 27.26
One reason you might be able to fade Joel Embiid on this slate is that there are a number of good cheap center and power forward plays on this slate. For starters, it looks like Isaiah Hartenstein will get the nod for the injured Mitchell Robinsons in this game against Toronto, and the former is coming in the lower middle tier on both sites. He’s averaging right around a double-double per 30 minutes this season and actually put up 16 rebounds in the last game with more minutes after Mitch-Rob left. He won’t have much usage in this offense, but the minutes should be there.
Opponent - MIA
Proj Pts FD - 29.74 DK - 30.64
Another injury replacement, Nick Richards will get the start for Mark Williams, who has already been ruled out of this one. Over the last couple of games, with the minutes increasing to the high 20s, Richards is averaging 10.5 points and 10 rebounds while combing for four blocks and steals. I really like the DraftKings price, and he helps you start filling in some of the expensive guards on this slate.
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 40.01 DK - 41.05
With Mason Plumlee out of the mix because of injury, the Clippers gave Ivica Zubac all the minutes he could handle against the Jazz on Friday. He ran a whopping 42 in that one and finished with 18 points, 13 rebounds, three assists, and a couple of blocks. We can’t project him for that much run again, but we can put the number in the 30s seeing as how LA is short on bigs at the moment. And that makes him a pretty easy DraftKings play.
Ömer Yurtseven (FD 4400 DK 4700)
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