Daily Fantasy NFL Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - Week 13 Main Slate 12/3/23

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Quarterbacks

C.J. Stroud FD 8000 DK 8100
Opponent DEN
Proj Points FD - 21.18 DK - 21.18

Another week, another chance to play CJ Stroud who has been one of the truly cool stories in the NFL this season. The 2nd overall pick is going to win Rookie of the Year and was even flirting (albeit prematurely) with the MVP odds as well. Now he’s a home favorite against the Broncos who, while better of late, still rank 25th in average yards per pass from opponents this season. This game has the second-highest total on the slate and for good reason.

The Texans have been in shootouts and are clearly happy having Stroud sling it in games. The price has climbed with the performance so he is no longer a bargain. But he has a high floor all things considered.

Kenny Pickett FD 6700 DK 5100
Opponent ARI
Proj Points FD - 16 DK - 16

I can’t even believe I’m writing this but I think you need to take a strong look at Kenny Pickett in cash games on DraftKings this week. There is a lot working in his favor. For starters, in the first game without Matt Canada as OC in Pittsburgh, the Steelers put up over 400 yards of offense, something they hadn’t done, well, at all.

Pickett threw 33 passes, going for 278 yards and scrambled five times as well. With the offense having a new look and the matchup against a Cardinals defense that’s among the worst in the league, rostering him at $5100 on DK is a (gasp) safe play.

Running Back

Zack Moss FD 5600 DK 4600
Opponent TEN
Proj Points FD - 18.96 DK - 20.19

Jonathan Taylor is going to miss significant time with the bad thumb injury and that should but Zack Moss all the way back in the feature role for the Colts. Go back to Week 5 when Jonathan Taylor was just coming back and we saw Moss play 80% of the snaps and carry the ball 20 times with two targets. And the weeks before that it was roughly the same story.

Moss was the guy and the Colts were fine leaning all the way in on his usage. That should be the case here against the Titans and the price isn’t anywhere close to where it should be for the opportunity. He is likely the highest-owned player on the slate.

Alvin Kamara FD 8300 DK 8200
Opponent DET
Proj Points FD - 18.75 DK - 22.05

The Saints are down a ton of pass-catchers this week and it’s unclear exactly how this is going to shake out. Michael Thomas and Rasheed Shaheed are both already out of the mix and Chris Olave is in the concussion protocol. That would be just about all of their WR targets on the season and we could see a ton of Alvin Kamara at home against the Lions this week.

We’ve seen a willingness to use him a ton in the passing game when needed and although that hasn’t been the case in the short term, this is still a dude averaging more than five targets per game over the last five with a 14-target week against the Jags back in October.

We will monitor this injury situation for the Saints and who will even be available, but I think Kamara is likely a safe play no matter what.

If De'Von Achane were to sit again, then Raheem Mostert would be cash game viable as a big road favorite against the Commanders.

I do like Jaylen Warren for cash games even though he is still in a timeshare with Najee Harris.

Wide Receiver

Tank Dell FD 8200 DK 7400
Opponent DEN
Proj Points FD - 17.55 DK - 21.4

Nico Collins FD 7600 DK 6800
Opponent DEN
Proj Points FD - 17.66 DK - 21.13

At least one Texans wide receiver has been a popular DFS play of late while the other has gone under-owned. Luckily, we’ve been touting both for a bit now. Tank Dell was the guy folks turned to and it makes sense, the dude has been awesome of course. He’s gone for 369 yards and caught five touchdowns in the last four weeks. It’s been an amazing story and he’s a good play once again here.

Meanwhile, Nico Collins is coming just a bit cheaper on both sites and actually led the team in targets in Week 12. He’s only two targets behind Dell on the season and was Stroud’s preferred go-to weapon early in the season. I think it’s fine going back to Collins here and he should still see ownership below Dell despite having a nearly identical projection on both sites.

Keenan Allen FD 9000 DK 9000
Opponent NE
Proj Points FD - 21.35 DK - 26.65

Keenan Allen has an absolutely absurd target share right now and is cresting towards insane numbers. He’s seen 129 targets on the season through 11 games and is on pace for right around 200 on the season. The single-season mark is Marvin Harrison (16 games) with 2005 so there’s some chance he comes close here.

His looks over the last three weeks are 16, 16, and 14 with an average of 132 yards per game in that stretch. There’s a good chance the Patriots do everything they can to limit him here and make Justin Herbert target literally anyone else, but that’s been a tough pull for other teams in the short term.

Jonathan Mingo might be worth a cheap flyer on DraftKings at $3300. He is coming off a six-target game that saw him play 92% of the snaps.

Tight End

Pat Freiermuth FD 5800 DK 4300
Opponent ARI
Proj Points FD - 10.61 DK - 13.23

Are the 11 targets for real? If so, or if it’s anywhere close, then he is coming way too cheap on both sites. Now, it was just one week without Matt Canada so the sample size is small. But man, that kind of target share (33%) is just way ahead of almost anyone else at the position. I suspect after last week’s performance he’s going to be very high-owned with a good matchup as well.

Taysom Hill FD 6500 DK 5200
Opponent DET
Proj Points FD - 12.36 DK - 13.57

Juwan Johnson FD 4900 DK 3400
Opponent DET
Proj Points FD - 8.82 DK - 11.06

With the Saints' wide receiver room in complete shambles right now, we could see a lot of Juwan Johnson targets once again and a bunch of Taysom Hill opportunity.

Last week, Juwan Johnson played 60% of the snaps and saw seven targets in the passing game. That could stand to increase if the Saints are without Olave, Thomas, and Shaheed. And then there is still Taysom Hill who carried the ball seven times and got a couple of targets on his way to totaling 81 yards from scrimmage.

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