Daily Fantasy NFL Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - Week 12 Main Slate 11/26/23

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Quarterbacks

C.J. Stroud FD 7700 DK 7700
Opponent JAX
Proj Points FD - 20.25 DK - 20.25

We could be in a situation where stacking a particular game in cash even on a bigger slate. CJ Stroud has been nothing short of amazing in his rookie season racking up 330 or more passing yards in each of the last three weeks and about to walk away with the Rookie of the Year.

Now he’ll face the Jaguars in what could be another shootout and the price, unbelievably, hasn’t gotten all the way there yet. I like the FanDuel price a bit more than DraftKings all things considered. He’s priced just below the elite tier of Allen, Mahomes, Hurts, etc but has just as much upside as that group.

Trevor Lawrence FD 7800 DK 6400
Opponent HOU
Proj Points FD - 19.43 DK - 19.43

This game has the second-highest total on the slate so having some exposure here makes sense. We had Trevor Lawrence as a bounce-back candidate last week and that more than worked out. He threw for 262 yards and two touchdowns while also running in for two more. It was a slate-breaking performance from Lawrence who had been struggling a bit in the short-term.

The DraftKings price is way too cheap in my opinion and if the rushing attempts hold then his floor is plenty high enough.

Strongly consider Jalen Hurts here, especially on FanDuel. He could be a chalkier option there.

Running Back

Bijan Robinson FD 7400 DK 6500
Opponent NO
Proj Points FD - 18.95 DK - 20.72

Arthur Smith finally saw the light of day in Week 10 when he trotted Bijan Robinson out there for 75% of the running back snaps, giving him 22 carries and two targets as well. If this is the new plan (and let’s hope that it is) then he’s way, way too cheap on both sites. From the talent pedigree to the every down role, he has an incredibly high floor that is essentially script independent. Again, Smith can’t totally be trusted here, but for this game, I think we can run him out in cash against the Saints.

Jonathan Taylor FD 7500 DK 6900
Opponent TB
Proj Points FD - 19.25 DK - 20.74

Jonathan Taylor gets a rougher matchup against the Bucs who have been only allowing 3.7 yards per carry to opponents this season, but there’s an opportunity piece that’s tough to ignore. In Week 10, he got 88% of the Colts’ snaps, piling up 23 carries and a target. If he’s completely taken over the role from Zack Moss, then we are still getting him at a discount here. It’s worth noting that despite the YPC stats, PFF still ranks the Bucs in the lower third of rush defense in terms of personnel.

Also consider:

With the Steelers firing Matt Canada, there’s a world in which Jaylen Warren becomes a bigger part of the offense. He’s coming very cheap on both sites, is explosive and comes in as a favorite against the Joe Burrow-less Bengals.

Travis Etienne comes in as a road favorite against the Texans who ranks near the bottom of PFFs rushing defense rankings. He could climb into cash games easily.

Kyren Williams is back and could see a huge workload right out of the gate.

Wide Receiver

Tank Dell FD 7800 DK 6900
Opponent JAX
Proj Points FD - 17.69 DK - 21.67

Nico Collins FD 6900 DK 6400
Opponent JAX
Proj Points FD - 17.21 DK - 20.47

Noah Brown hasn’t practiced at all this week at the time of this writing and we could be headed for another huge target week from both of these Texans wideouts. Tank Dell has double-digit targets in each of the last three weeks, averaging 106 yards in that stretch with four total touchdowns. He’s been one of the best wide receivers in football in the short-term. The price, especially on FanDuel, doesn’t totally match what he’s been doing.

Meanwhile, Nico Collins returned in Week 11 from a multi-week absence and got right back into the mix. He saw 11 targets and finished with seven catches for 65 yards. These two guys combined for 57% of the Texans targets and make for a good cash stack this time around with how Stroud uses them in the offense.

Michael Pittman Jr. FD 7600 DK 6800
Opponent TB
Proj Points FD - 16.46 DK - 20.93

Michael Pittman has seen double-digit targets in three of the last five weeks. And his 98 targets quietly rank third in the NFL overall. The Bucs have been something of a funnel defense this season, consistently letting it up through the air to opponents. With Pittman as the number one option for Gardner Minshew, this pricing is a bit on the lower side all things considered. He could be a popular play this week with the matchup.

Strongly consider Puka Nacua and possibly Tutu Atwell if Cooper Kupp were to miss this week with an ankle injury.

Tight End

David Njoku FD 5700 DK 4100
Opponent DEN
Proj Points FD - 13.69 DK - 17.27

With Deshaun Watson out in Week 11 and Dorian Thompson-Robinson under center, David Njoku had crazy target share. He got an insane 15 targets, converting them to seven catches and 56 yards. That represented 35% of DTR’s passing attempts and was clearly the first look. I don’t think we can expect that kind of volume again, but even a tick down would see him as an easy cash game play against this Denver defense.

Trey McBride FD 6100 DK 4700
Opponent LAR
Proj Points FD - 13.9 DK - 17.39

The volume came down for Trey McBride last week, but he still saw seven targets when it was all said done. With Kyler Murray back under center the offense is, for sure, going to be better and I don’t think McBride’s price has actually all the way caught up to what his role in the offense is now. Zach Ertz could return at some point, but that shouldn’t matter much.

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