Indiana Pacers guard Tyrese Haliburton reacts after scoring against the Charlotte Hornets during the second half of an NBA basketball game in Indianapolis, Saturday, Nov. 4, 2023. (AP Photo/AJ Mast)
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Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 52.07 DK - 55.97
This Pacers-Hawks game has an insane (and I mean insane) 250 over/ under which almost seems like a joke. It’s 14 points higher than the next-closest game and 25 points more than most other tilts. We are paying a pretty price for Tyrese Haliburton at this point, but if there was ever a game that was “worth it”, it’s this one.
The pace should be ultra-fast, Hali has been playing huge minutes and is averaging 23.5 points and 11.6 assists on 51/43/94 splits. Don’t sweat this decision all that much, click the button and fill out the rest of the lineup.
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 49.66 DK - 54.63
Speaking of the game with a ridiculous total, on the other side we have the Hawks with their own backcourt to roster. Again, with pricing, this gets a little tough because there is only so much salary. But if there was a game to really try to make it all fit and get cheaper plays in elsewhere, this is the one.
Trae’s three-point shooting has been off this season, going only 28% from deep with the overall FG% way down off his career numbers as well. That’s definitely a concern, but the usage is still there and he’s getting to the line more this season as well.
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 31.36 DK - 33.74
We had a little window last week when it seemed like Bennedict Mathurin was going to be a mid-30s minutes guy going forward. But as it seems to happen with Indiana, the rotations just can kind of get wonky and it’s tough to trust anything beyond Haliburton.
That being said, with this game likely going the way we think, getting Mathurin in the middle tier (because of the lower minutes of late), then it’s worth it to take the risk. The total is just too high and he’s got big-time scoring upside when things break right.
Consider: He’s coming off the bench, but with Donovan Mitchell and Caris LeVert out for the Cavs again, Craig Porter Jr. (FD 4500 DK 3800) does make some sense. He played a lot in the blowout last game but was the first guard off the bench anyway so I think he’s moderately “safe” here.
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 30.25 DK - 31.82
By now, you are seeing the theme of what’s going on here with these picks. And it makes sense considering how much of a track meet this game should be. Bruce Brown is another Pacers starter whose minutes are tough to trust all the time, but the floor is fine for the prices on both sites.
Before last game, 22 minutes in the blowout, he had played 31 or more in six of the previous seven games. Not a big usage guy, but he chips in everywhere else and this kind of game is great for his overall skillset.
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 33.21 DK - 36.38
The matchup against the Sixers stinks, but Max Strus is definitely in play on this slate considering the current state of the Cleveland Cavaliers. They are without Donovan Mitchell and Caris LeVert for this game again. And if the score stays close then Strus could easily press towards (or even over) 40 minutes.
The game against the Nuggets was rough, but in the three before that, he took 15, 12, and 12 shots averaging more than four rebounds and four assists as well. The floor is on the higher side because of the run.
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 36.54 DK - 37.89
I firmly believe the real plan from the Pacers is to play Myles Turner 30+ minutes a game. The issue is that, well, issues tend to crop up for him that make it not happen. Foul trouble is an issue, and blowouts have been a problem as well. It’s something that keeps his price in this range even though his per-minute fantasy scoring is of a player much more expensive.
For this game, with the Hawks having two competent bigs in Capela and Okungwu, I think we can roster Turner and take the risk.
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 36.44 DK - 38.34
Yeah, yeah, yeah, I know. Is it only going to be players from this game? Well, mostly. But again, that’s for some of the best reasons in the world (namely, the pace and defense, or lack thereof). Jalen Johnson is mostly locked into minutes in the higher 30s in closer games with some (though not amazing) usage to go with it.
But he’s scored 18 or more points in four of his last five games and the rebounding has been really, really good averaging 8.4 boards a game over the course of November. The DraftKings price is still a relative bargain though he’s in play on both sites.
Strongly consider Clint Capela (FD 6200 DK 5700), especially on DraftKings where he’s coming cheap. Onyeka Okongwu (FD 5700 DK 4700) could also be almost like an expensive punt play.
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