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Daily Fantasy NFL Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - Week 10 Main Slate 11/12/23
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Quarterbacks
Joe Burrow FD 8200 DK 6800
Opponent HOU
Proj Points FD - 19.5 DK - 19.5
Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes are on byes while Lamar Jackson is facing up against the Browns. That leaves some of the bigger fantasy QBs out of the cash mix but there are plenty of ways to go here. Joe Burrow is clearly over the calf injury and has been humming with 10 touchdowns and two interceptions total over the last four weeks.
He’s facing a below-average Houston Texans defense allowing more than average opponents plays from scrimmage this season. I like Burrow’s price on DraftKings a bit more and think there’s a chance that pairing him with Joe Mixon (who we’ll get to) could be the move in cash on this slate.
Taylor Heinicke FD 7000 DK 5100
Opponent ARI
Proj Points FD - 18.17 DK - 18.17
Taylor Heinicke got his first start for the Falcons in Week 9 and the team promptly lost an embarrassing one to the Cousins and Jefferson-less Vikings. He completed only 55% of his passes but did get 268 yards while also adding another 20 on the ground. The key here is less about Heinicke and more about the matchup.
The Arizona Cardinals rank 28th in pass rush and 31st in overall defense according to PFF. For his DraftKings price, I think he makes a cash game play even though I hate the Falcons in general on a week-to-week basis.
Running Back
Joe Mixon FD 7700 DK 6200
Opponent HOU
Proj Points FD - 16.33 DK - 18.41
With our running backs we love to have home favorites as a good place to start. Check and check for Joe Mixon with the Bengals -7 in Cincy against the Texans. Houston is below average against the run this season and Mixon is unchallenged in the backfield for this team right now.
He’s not efficient on the carries, going for fewer than four yards a touch so far, but he’s always on the field and Burrow will target him in the passing game. I really like his price on both sites considering the opportunity.
Tony Pollard FD 7800 DK 7300
Opponent NYG
Proj Points FD - 17.88 DK - 19.96
Ugh, when do we quit this guy? Just when you think he’s got the perfect scenario, the production just doesn’t come. And yet here we are in Week 10 with the Dallas Cowboys a whopping -16 home favorites against the hapless Giants.
There’s risk on a couple of different fronts with Pollard here. He’s been inefficient this season and seems to never score. Plus, this game could be out of hand early meaning we don’t even see some key Cowboys players late.
But Pollard has also been a bit unlucky on some of his production this season (a TD called back last week) and if there was a game to break out, this is the one.
Alexander Mattison FD 6200 DK 5500
Opponent NO
Proj Points FD - 14.93 DK - 16.99
The Vikings lost Cam Akers for the rest of the season with an Achilles tear and all of the base and passing work went right back to Mattison. There’s still Ty Chandler on this roster, but if the Vikings think they have renewed playoff life with Joshua Dobbs under center then we could see a lot of Mattison once again. The Saints are a good defense and particularly stout against the run, but Mattison isn’t priced for all of the carries coming back.
Wide Receiver
Ja'Marr Chase FD 9300 DK 8600
Opponent HOU
Proj Points FD - 22.38 DK - 26.92
It’s going to be tough to own all of the higher-priced studs on this slate, but we are going to sure need to try because of the way things are shaking out. Ja'Marr Chase is 4th in targets and 5th in DraftKings scoring this season, and that even factors in the first few weeks when it seemed clear that Joe Burrow was still hurt.
He gets a good matchup against the Texans and even though he’s coming off a down week, we aren’t going to sweat it all that much. Chase had double-digit targets in four of the five weeks prior. This game looks like he could have a huge ceiling once again.
CeeDee Lamb FD 8900 DK 8500
Opponent NYG
Proj Points FD - 22.96 DK - 27.47
Like we said with Tony Pollard, there is a definite blowout risk with this Cowboys-Giants game considering just how bad Big Blue is at this point. But not having pieces of the Cowboys' offense would also feel quite scary.
CeeDee Lamb has been a beast in the last couple of weeks, getting 16 and 14 targets respectively and putting up 11/191/0 and 12/158/2 lines. That’s about as good as you’ll ever see from a wide receiver.
Can we trust the production sticks? It seems like the Cowboys have made a shift to feeding him the ball (smart) and that could be the case once again.
Nico Collins FD 6900 DK 6600
Opponent CIN
Proj Points FD - 14.21 DK - 16.88
Tank Dell FD 6400 DK 5500
Opponent CIN
Proj Points FD - 13.38 DK - 16.17
We saw CJ Stroud and the Texans lean into the passing game in a big way in Week 9 which is a total understatement. He had 42 attempts for 470 yards and five touchdowns. So, yeah. That isn’t likely to be recreated, but Houston focusing much more on the pass is set to keep going, especially with the state of their running game.
The Bengals can get after it in the pass rush, but their coverage leads a bit to be desired. They are allowing the 6th-most yards per pass attempt on the season.
Tank Dell was the big beneficiary (along with Noah Brown and Dalton Schultz) finishing with 11 targets and a 6/114/2 line on the day. Nico Collins didn’t see the same kind of volume, but still finished with a score. On a week-to-week basis, these two are the favorites to command the most targets from Stroud. And if the passing volume sticks in somewhat the same range, both are underpriced.
Tight End
T.J. Hockenson FD 6600 DK 5000
Opponent NO
Proj Points FD - 14.96 DK - 18.78
We don’t often want to spend a bunch on tight ends in cash, but there’s a case for T.J. Hockenson here. Last week between a little Darren Hall and a lot of Joshua Dobbs, Hockenson saw 12 targets (33% share) and finished with a 7/69 line. If he’s going to be Dobbs’ go-to dude in this offense without Justin Jefferson then the price is too low. And we have just seen Dobbs targets Trey McBride a ton in the Arizona offense, so there’s at least some content here. TJ is a tough fade this week.
Dalton Schultz FD 6100 DK 4900
Opponent CIN
Proj Points FD - 11.33 DK - 14.25
Dalton Schultz had a breakout game in Week 9 for sure, but things had been trending this way for a few weeks. There was a down game against Carolina for sure, but before that he saw seven and 10 targets and had caught touchdowns in three straight weeks.
He’s fifth in red zone targets among tight ends this season, one of the best stats for predicting upside at this position. The price isn’t all the way there on him.
Strongly consider Trey McBride with Kyler Murray coming back.
