Daily Fantasy NFL Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - Week 9 Main Slate 11/5/23

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Quarterbacks

Lamar Jackson FD 8600 DK 8200
Opponent SEA
Proj Points FD - 21.84 DK - 21.84

For Sunday’s main slate of games I think we are going to want to pay up for one of the stud (“safe”) quarterbacks to get things started in cash. That’s going to mean either Lamar Jackson or Jalen Hurts who I think you can prioritize depending on the site.

Lamar Jackson is $400 cheaper on FanDuel in the matchup against the Seattle Seahawks. He is QB5 in FanDuel scoring on the season thanks in large part to the 380 rushing yards and five touchdowns on the ground. Seattle is good against the run and has a good pass rush so it isn’t like this is some kind of layup game. But Lamar has such a high floor because of what he does on the ground. And he also has weapons now.

Jalen Hurts FD 9000 DK 8000
Opponent DAL
Proj Points FD - 22.52 DK - 22.52

And then there is Jalen Hurts who is $200 cheaper than Lamar Jackson on DraftKings. He goes against Dallas who has an elite defensive pass rush, but the game as the highest over/under on the slate at 46. It should still be a good spot for Jalen Hurts who is fantasy’s QB2 on the season. He gets out and runs more than nine times per game, has six rushing touchdowns and is a big-time threat every time Philly is down and close. Plus, we will talk about stacking him with AJ Brown here shortly.

There are some backup quarterbacks getting starts this week. One who could be interesting is Taylor Heinecke for the Falcons. He’s $5K on DraftKings and gets a good matchup.

Running Back

Bijan Robinson FD 7100 DK 6100
Opponent MIN
Proj Points FD - 14.86 DK - 16.99

After the Bijan debacle of Week 7 that saw him barely play after getting sick pregame, things bounced back in Week 8. He played 74% of the snaps, got 11 carries and five targets in the offense. It was bad because Desmond Ridder looked rough, but there’s going to be a change there now. The Falcons are -3 home favorites against the Vikings who have a good run defense but might not be able to keep the offense on the field without Kirk Cousins. I like the deal we are getting on Bijan here for sure.

Josh Jacobs FD 7500 DK 6900
Opponent NYG
Proj Points FD - 17.61 DK - 19.96

Ok, this is a weird spot. On the one hand, Josh Jacobs has elite usage on the season, ranking second behind only Travis Etienne Jr. in terms of carries + targets. Plus, he gets to face a Giants’ defense that isn’t all that good and can be run on. So, you would think everything is lined up right for a smash spot. But the Raiders fired Josh McDaniels (and basically everyone else) this week so there could be a change in strategy going forward. This is tricky, but I’m tempted to trust Jacobs in this spot.

Chuba Hubbard FD 6500 DK 5000
Opponent IND
Proj Points FD - 14.03 DK - 15.55

The Carolina Panthers signed Miles Sanders in the off-season to a sizable contract, but even back healthy this week he ceded most of the base RB work to Chuba Hubbard. The latter played 67% of the the snaps, carrying the ball 15 times and getting two targets in the passing game. The Colts have an average run defense and I don’t think the price on Hubbard is really reflective of his role in the offense even on a not-so-great team.

Alvin Kamara is in a great spot as a -7 home favorite against the Chicago Bears defense this week. He’s definitely a better deal on DraftKings.

Wide Receiver

A.J. Brown FD 9000 DK 8600
Opponent DAL
Proj Points FD - 19.14 DK - 22.62

Most of the true WR1 dudes aren’t on this slate (Tyreek, Chase, etc) and that leaves AJ Brown who has been simply ridiculous this season. He is fifth in receiving targets and 4th in DraftKings scoring on the season. It’s been a massive run for the dude who is targeted early and often in this offense. The matchup isn’t ideal but he’s been too good to pass up.

Adam Thielen FD 8300 DK 7500
Opponent IND
Proj Points FD - 17.64 DK - 21.97

Adam Thielen is 11th in wide receiver targets on the season and ninth in targets per game. He’s had 11 or more looks in four of the last five games and is clearly the top option for Bryce Young so far. That seems sustainable at this point and while the DraftKings price has come up considerably, it actually probably isn’t all the way there right now. If you can’t get all the way up to AJ Brown on DK, Thielen is a poor man’s option with the projected volume.

Demario Douglas FD 5400 DK 4000
Opponent WAS
Proj Points FD - 11.45 DK - 14.21

It feels gross recommending any New England Patriots player for this kind of thing, but there is going to be opportunity for Demario Douglas with Kendrick Bourne lost for the the season. The latter has gotten 13 total targets over the last two weeks and played 77% of the snaps last week. That kind of opportunity works at these price points on both sites even in a garbage offense.

Strongly consider Chris Olave on both sites.

Tight End

Trey McBride FD 5300 DK 3700
Opponent CLE
Proj Points FD - 11.09 DK - 14.01

The Cardinals are making a quarterback change this week so there are at least some question marks about what will happen here. But Trey McBride played so damn much and saw so many targets that it’s hard to imagine him collapsing fully at these prices. He ran 82% of the snaps and got 14 targets overall. Garbage time? Sure. But these are the Cardinals we are talking about and they should be passing from here on out.

Cole Kmet FD 5700 DK 3900
Opponent NO
Proj Points FD - 10.1 DK - 12.68

Speaking of a big target share, Cole Kmet got 10 looks from Tyler Bagent last week, converting all of them for a 10/79 line. The key at tight end is, typically, saving as much as possible while trying to snag someone who is at least moderately involved with the offense. Kmet checks those boxes.

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