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Daily Fantasy NFL Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - Week 8 Main Slate 10/29/23
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Quarterbacks
Patrick Mahomes FD 9000 DK 8400
Opponent DEN
Proj Points FD - 25.82 DK - 25.82
Patrick Mahomes is just such a tough fade right now and this week is lining up for the Chiefs to really pile it on. For starters, Mahomes is QB3 in DraftKings scoring on the season behind only Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts. And then you factor in that he is playing the Denver Broncos who grade out at 25th in pass rush and 30th in coverage according to PFF. This game has the highest total on the slate and Mahomes controls the offense. He’s expensive, for sure, but the floor is just so, so high right now. And the matchup is perfect.
Brock Purdy FD 7200 DK 5600
Opponent CIN
Proj Points FD - 18.07 DK - 18.07
Brock Purdy is coming cheap on DraftKings where I think you can consider him in cash games. The Bengals have a good pass rush but rank consistently low in coverage. Cincy is below average in opponents yards per pass attempt and are about average in opponent pace. This is a good spot for Purdy even without Deebo Samuel in the mix. He’s gotten out and run a few more times in the last couple of games and has been historically efficient with this offense. I think he has a higher floor in cash games.
Running Back
Alvin Kamara FD 8300 DK 7300
Opponent IND
Proj Points FD - 21.75 DK - 25.82
Alvin Kamara is 18th in running back usage (carries + targets) this season which doesn’t sound all that impressive until you remember that he’s played about three games fewer than just about everyone above him on the list. And his receiving targets alone are second among RBs overall behind only Josh Jacobs. This is just outrageous opportunity for Kamara and it makes him basically a must-play on DraftKings because of the full PPR scoring. Derek Carr is fine checking down all day long and Kamara has been the primary beneficiary. This is a pretty easy play in this spot.
Tony Pollard FD 7600 DK 7500
Opponent LAR
Proj Points FD - 18.01 DK - 20.11
We are getting dared to play Tony Pollard at these prices and he enters Week 8 with a chance to actually show why he went so high in drafts this season. The Cowboys come out of the bye as -6.5 home favorites against the Rams, the relative sweet spot for running backs. But it’s been a slog for Pollard who is averaging just 3.9 yards per carry with only two touchdowns through six games. The usage is still there so I think we should buy here and he’s discounted on both sites.
Chuba Hubbard FD 6300 DK 4800
Opponent HOU
Proj Points FD - 14.68 DK - 16.35
The Panthers are home dogs to the Texans this week, but I think we can still be on Chuba Hubbard here. With Miles Sanders out in Week 6, Hubbard played 77% of the snaps, carrying the ball 19 times for 88 yards and a touchdown. Sanders is back after the bye week, but it looks like Hubbard is going to maintain the workload going into this game. And that makes sense. It’s a bit of a risk considering the situation but that’s mitigated some by his DraftKings price which is sitting at sub-$5K.
Wide Receiver
Adam Thielen FD 8200 DK 6600
Opponent HOU
Proj Points FD - 15.82 DK - 19.7
Adam Thielen is 10th in the league in targets per game and 12th overall. It’s been a great season for PPR folks with this guy who is clearly Bryce Young’s outlet to start the season. The DraftKings price remains too low for the opportunity and his 83% conversion rate on the targets is also about as good as it gets. He isn’t quite the same bargain he’s been in past weeks now coming out of the bye, but we can play him on DK for sure.
Jordan Addison FD 7300 DK 5700
Opponent GB
Proj Points FD - 14.23 DK - 17.41
We were waiting for Jordan Addison to breakout after Justin Jefferson went down with injury, and it happened in Week 7. He went for 123 yards on seven catches with two touchdowns along the way. One was pure theft on a near-interception, but the 10 targets were easily his best of the season. If that trend continues then he’s simply too low on both sites, but especially DraftKings. The Packers rank well in pass coverage, but low in pass rush and Cousins should continue to consolidate targets for Addison and TJ Hockenson.
Zay Flowers FD 6500 DK 5600
Opponent ARI
Proj Points FD - 14.21 DK - 17.24
The Ravens didn’t have to throw much in the beatdown of the Lions in Week 7 but Zay Flowers still saw a 22% target share in that one. He’s had double-digit targets in half of his games even with the touchdowns running a little light. The Cardinals have one of the worst pass defenses around and Lamar Jackson could shred these guys. I like the price on Flowers on both sites with things stagnating some last week mostly because of the game script.
If DK Metcalf can’t go again then Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba would once again be strong option.
Tight End
Travis Kelce FD 9000 DK 8400
Opponent DEN
Proj Points FD - 19.55 DK - 23.83
It’s so tough to pay this much for a tight end in the current NFL and it’s also so tough to fade Travis Kelce. He has nine of more targets in five of his six games and is coming off a massive 12/179/1 week against the Chargers. Plus, now he’ll get the atrocious Denver defense that he just went 9/124 against two weeks ago. It’s a smash spot for the best in the business.
Trey McBride FD 4700 DK 2800
Opponent BAL
Proj Points FD - 8.97 DK - 11.29
Zach Ertz is now on IR and a majority of the TE snaps should go to the rookie McBride. It was already trending in this direction, and now there is really no doubt. We have at least one more week of Joshua Dobbs under center for the Cardinals before Kyler Murray’s return and McBride is coming off of six targets on 53% of the snaps in Week 7. I think this is definitely a spot to buy on both sites.
