Daily Fantasy NFL Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - Week 7 Main Slate 10/22/23

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Quarterbacks

Patrick Mahomes FD 9200 DK 8300
Opponent LAC
Proj Points FD - 25.28 DK - 25.28

Chiefs and Chargers have the highest total on the main slate of games and it isn’t all that close with the game sitting four points higher than the next closest one. Patrick Mahomes is QB4 in DraftKings scoring on the season this one could be something of a shootout. You are paying a premium on Mahomes for sure, but there should be cheaper running backs to smooth salary concerns out for overall lineup construction.

Geno Smith FD 7000 DK 6000
Opponent ARI
Proj Points FD - 18.45 DK - 18.45

Gen Smith is coming cheaper on both sites and gets one of the best matchups on the slate facing off against the Cardinals at home. He isn’t having quite the season we saw last year, off that pace in terms of yards and touchdowns with the completion percentage down as well. But the Cardinals have the 31st-ranked defense on the season and this is a get-right spot for sure. I like stacking Geno and Kenneth Walker (will get to him in a second) in cash games because the floor should be very high for the offense in general.

Running Back

Isiah Pacheco FD 7400 DK 6100
Opponent LAC
Proj Points FD - 16.27 DK - 18.22

Having exposure to the Chiefs after Mahomes can get tough because, at least in the pass game, the wide receivers are all over the place. And Travis Kelce is very expensive. But Pacheco is still coming at something of a value. He’s playing about 60-65% of the offensive snaps and last week had elite usage with 16 carries and 6 targets. This kind of role in one of the best offenses in football is too good to pass up and his price doesn’t match at all.

Kenneth Walker III FD 8800 DK 7000
Opponent ARI
Proj Points FD - 16.85 DK - 18.34

While he’s expensive on FanDuel, this is definitely a spot to play Kenneth Walker on DraftKings considering the context. We love playing home running backs on teams that are big favorites and that’s the case with the Seahawks here. They are -8 against the Cardinals who rank 29th in run defense on the season. Walker got 76% of the offensive snaps in Week 6, carrying the ball 19 times while also seeing three targets in the passing game. He’s yet to top 100 yards rushing in a game this season, but this is the one that could end that streak.

Craig Reynolds FD 5600 DK 4900
Opponent BAL
Proj Points FD - 13.7 DK - 15.7

This pick is subject to change with how the injury news shakes out for the Lions this week. David Montgomery will be out having left with an injury in Week 6. Jahmyr Gibbs hasn’t played the last two games and could be out here as well. Reynolds ended up playing 61% of the snaps in Week 6 when Monty went down and ended up with 10 carries and two targets.

He was efficient on the ground, but the Lions have supported plenty of run offense so far this season. If he was in the bell cow role then we would happily play Reynolds at these prices.

Consider Zach Evans if you think he gets the bulk of the Rams’ work with Kyren Williams out.

Wide Receiver

Stefon Diggs FD 9000 DK 8900
Opponent NE
Proj Points FD - 20.88 DK - 25.42

Stefon Diggs is fourth in the NFL in targets and will probably soon pass Puka Nacua with Cooper Kupp back in the mix. He’s also third in receiving yards and second in touchdowns. It’s been another monster season for Diggs so far, soaking up so many Josh Allen targets.

This week he’ll face a New England Patriots defense that ranks 23rd in pass coverage according to PFF and 29th in pass rush. Though the game has a low total, this is another big spot for Diggs who should be in strong consideration on both sites.

Zay Flowers FD 6300 DK 5700
Opponent DET
Proj Points FD - 13.34 DK - 16.25

Mark Andrews fantasy owners can’t be happy about, but Zay Flowers is a definitive WR1 in a way the Ravens and Lamar Jackson haven’t really had before. He’s 16th in the NFL in targets, a remarkable number for a rookie only outshined by the crazy pace for Puka Nacua. Flowers has been excellent and is still moderately underpriced on FanDuel where he draws a good matchup against the Lions.

Kendrick Bourne FD 5800 DK 4400
Opponent BUF
Proj Points FD - 11.05 DK - 13.69

We don’t usually want to target Patriots guys because, well, they stink. But Kendrick Bourne is coming pretty cheap on both FanDuel and DraftKings with 9 or more targets in three of the six games so far. The Patriots are almost for sure going to be playing catchup in this game and I do think the floor for Bourne is high enough considering his target share and price.

Also consider:

Marquise Brown is actually 13th overall in targets this season with 53, but the catch rate (55%) is the worst among the top group. It’s one thing keeping his price in check. But there could be a ceiling game in here somewhere.

Joshua Palmer saw a 19% target share in Week 6 even with Austin Ekeler back. He’s viable at his price points.

Tight End

Michael Mayer FD 4900 DK 2700
Opponent CHI
Proj Points FD - 7.72 DK - 9.44

Not to go all hot-hand here, but with tight ends we especially want to hone in on guys who’ve seen targets and are coming cheap. Mayer fits the bill in both respects, coming sub-$3K on DraftKings and sub-$5K on FanDuel. He got six targets in Week 6, converting them to 5 catches for 75 yards. He played 81% of the snaps and if he’s on the field then I think we can plug our noses and play him in cash.

Trey McBride FD 4600 DK 2600
Opponent SEA
Proj Points FD - 7.45 DK - 9.29

Speaking of recent performance, Trey McBride outsnapped Zach Ertz in the Arizona offensive plan in Week 6 and was effective, converting his 5 targets into a 4/62 line. Again, we are looking to get out of this position cheaply and (usually) just move on with our lives. McBride represents that and it seems like he is trending in the right direction in terms of opportunity.

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