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Daily Fantasy NFL Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - Week 5 Main Slate 10/8/23
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Quarterbacks
Jalen Hurts FD 8600 DK 8000
Opponent LAR
Proj Points FD - 24.84 DK - 24.84
The Eagles and Rams have the second-highest total of the main slate at 50.5 and there is a good chance of debate between whether to play Jalen Hurts or Patrick Mahomes in this tier. I’m going with Hurts because he’s a bit cheaper and his work on the ground gives him a slightly higher floor than Mahomes. That being said, it’s very close here. Hurts is still getting out and running about 10 times per game and has elite weapons. The Rams are above average in opponents' yards per pass attempt and overall pace, but I’m still on Hurts here regardless.
Zach Wilson FD 6700 DK 4900
Opponent DEN
Proj Points FD - 17.18 DK - 17.18
Ok, stick with me here for a second. Before getting too caught up with the name, let’s look at some of the context. For starters, Zach Wilson is coming sub-$5K on DraftKings which gives a lot of flex in the rest of the lineup. Secondly, he’s facing off against a Broncos team allowing 8.9 yards per pass attempt on the season, worst in the league. Third, he started to look downright competent against the Chiefs last week, completing 71% of his passes for 245 yards and two touchdowns. Plus there’s just a little bit of running here. This is more an opponent play than anything else, but it warrants discussion.
Strongly consider Matthew Stafford
Running Back
De'Von Achane FD 7500 DK 6100
Opponent NYG
Proj Points FD - 18.55 DK - 19.81
De'Von Achane has had a ridiculous last couple of weeks, racking up 304 yards on the ground in just 26 total carries while also picking up another 49 through the air on nine targets. He’s been ultra-efficient and explosive and that is set to continue this week against the Giants. The Dolphins are -11 home favorites against a Giants team allowing 4.4 yards per carry to opponents and looking like they might be dead men walking. Achane is likely to be a chalk play on both sites and he’s coming off playing 60% of the running back snaps last week.
Alvin Kamara FD 7100 DK 6300
Opponent NE
Proj Points FD - 17.21 DK - 20.53
Alvin Kamara came back from suspension and instantly stepped into a lead-back role with 54% of the snaps and a record-setting 14 targets in the passing game. He also got 11 carries, touching the ball in more than half of his snaps. He doesn’t get a great matchup here against the Patriots though they will be without Judon and Gonzalez on the defensive front. If Kamara is now Derek Carr’s primary target then this price is simply too low on DraftKings especially.
Kyren Williams FD 7800 DK 6700
Opponent PHI
Proj Points FD - 18.49 DK - 20.9
The price has come up but the role is just so absurd. Through four weeks, Kyren Williams is RB4 in overall usage with 86 touches (64 carries, 22 targets) and is game-script independent based on how the Rams are using him. Meaning, they can be down to the Eagles here and he’s still going to be on the field. That gives him such a high floor week-to-week. And yet with this opportunity, he’s still RB6 and RB5 in pricing on FanDuel and DraftKings respectively.
Wide Receiver
Justin Jefferson FD 9200 DK 9400
Opponent KC
Proj Points FD - 22.58 DK - 27.22
Through four weeks, Justin Jefferson has 543 receiving yards, putting him on pace for more than 2300 yards on the season. Can he keep it up? Well, this game should certainly give him a shot. If the Vikings are in catchup mode at home against the Chiefs then we could see another peak game from this guy. This one has the highest total of the slate and we are going to want at least some exposure. The price is high, but Jefferson is worth it.
A.J. Brown FD 8200 DK 8000
Opponent LAR
Proj Points FD - 19.78 DK - 23.64
If we aren’t overspending on running back, then there is an opportunity to really pile it one when it comes to wide receiver. A.J. Brown has double-digit targets in three of his first four games, and over 300 receiving yards in his last two alone. He’s got a massive ceiling, as high as anyone in the game and stacking him with Hurts in cash does make sense here. Brown is coming a little cheaper than Justin Jefferson too which allows for a bit more lineup wiggle room.
Nico Collins FD 7000 DK 5600
Opponent ATL
Proj Points FD - 15.51 DK - 18.54
Nico Collins is now WR5 in total receiving yards and WR17 in targets. He’s become CJ Stroud’s number-one option and is a WR1 candidate in fantasy despite being priced in the middle tier. Yeah, he had a massive Week 4 with a 9/168/2 line (yes we played him in cash) but he also put up 7/146/1 in Week 2. So it’s not like we are staring out outlier performances here. Collins is still a great value on DraftKings.
Strongly consider Adam Thielen whose price came up but is still earning a lot of targets from Bryce Young.
Wan’Dale Robinson is an interesting $3K guy on DraftKings this week if you think the role expands some.
Tight End
Sam LaPorta FD 6000 DK 5000
Opponent CAR
Proj Points FD - 12.81 DK - 15.8
Sam LaPorta leads all tight ends in receiving yards through the first four weeks with 242 and has been a favorite of Jared Goff to kick off his rookie season. The price is still reasonable on DraftKings where we usually like to punt the position. But he has an established floor that makes it acceptable here in cash.
Zach Ertz FD 5100 DK 3500
Opponent CIN
Proj Points FD - 10.78 DK - 14.02
Ertz is currently second among tight ends in targets through the first four weeks. Does he do anything with them? Not really. He’s caught 20 passes of just 136 total yards. It’s almost impossible to move that little distance on this many catches, but that’s what’s happening here. He’s still coming cheap on DK where the full PPR helps if he’s not going to break the bank.
