Daily Fantasy NFL Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - Week 4 Main Slate 9/31/23

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Quarterbacks

Joe Burrow FD 7200 DK 6500
Opponent TEN
Proj Points FD - 19.32 DK - 19.32

Man, it’s tough with Joe Burrow right now. On the one hand, he’s been able to gut out games, the Bengals beat the Rams on Monday and the price on both sites is getting so, so low. On the other hand, the efficiency has been brutal (55% completion rate) and it still really isn’t clicking. But he gets a straight-up funnel defense in the Titans who’ve allowed the 4th-least rushing yards and 5th-most passing yards. If there was a spot to really turn it around for Burrow so far, this is the one. The prices and the pedigree are just too good to overlook here.

Russell Wilson FD 7500 DK 5800
Opponent CHI
Proj Points FD - 19.91 DK - 19.91

Ooh baby, let’s go there. Russell Wilson and the Broncos have been something of a mess this season and are coming off getting shelled by Miami 70-20. So, that’s not great. But now they are playing the Bears who have allowed the most points in the NFL through 3 weeks (106) and just completely suck. If there was a spot for Wilson to turn in a big game, this is the one. He’s too cheap on DraftKings and that savings is going to be really important this week.

Running Back

Christian McCaffrey FD 9700 DK 9200
Opponent ARI
Proj Points FD - 24.28 DK - 26.88

Tony Pollard FD 8400 DK 7800
Opponent NE
Proj Points FD - 20.78 DK - 22.96

It’s close for me here on the top options between Tony Pollard and Christian McCaffrey. They are one and two in the NFL in usage to start the season at 76 and 73 touches respectively. It’s a steep drop-off after them. I don’t actually think you can really go wrong here all things considered. Both are in solid matchups as favorites and you know are going to get the rock.

A tiebreaker could be that Pollard is cheaper on both sites and allows for more flexibility with roster builds. His matchup against the Patriots is slower but that’a baked in a bit here. Either way, both are likely to garner a ton of touches and sit in a class to themselves when it comes to opportunity.

Zack Moss FD 7300 DK 6000
Opponent LAR
Proj Points FD - 17.71 DK - 19.08

Zack Moss ranks 16th in overall usage (carries + targets) in the NFL which doesn’t sound that impressive until you factor in that he didn’t even play Week 1. His workload has been absolutely insane in the last two weeks and that should continue here. The matchup against the Rams isn’t ideal, but few other running backs in the league have this kind of opportunity right now when it comes to just being on the field and getting handed the rock. An Anthony Richardson return would, for sure, eat into the rushing, but even with that the price is too low on DraftKings.

Kyren Williams FD 7600 DK 6000
Opponent IND
Proj Points FD - 18.5 DK - 21.67

Like Zack Moss, Kyren Williams might not be playing in the most prolific offense, but he’s staying on the field most of the game regardless. That was the case again in Week 3 when he ended up seeing 10 carries and 7 targets in the Rams’ loss. Now they will play the Colts and he figures to see a lot of the rock again. The price has climbed but the opportunity is still there and the DK price is a little too low.

Wide Receiver

Keenan Allen FD 9500 DK 7900
Opponent LV
Proj Points FD - 21.21 DK - 26.6

Joshua Palmer FD 6100 DK 4000
Opponent LV
Proj Points FD - 12.14 DK - 15.21

Keenan Allen is WR5 on DraftKings in terms of price, and that’s likely a mistake going into this week. The Chargers are now without Mike Williams for the rest of the season and Allen is coming off an absurd 20-target week that saw him haul in 18 balls for 215 yards. That kind of production is silly (unless you are, say, DaVante Adams) and LA now enters the week facing off against the Raiders. This is still a smash spot for Allen who is likely to garner a ton of targets going forward.

And then there is Joshua Palmer who enters a “next man up” situation with Big Mike now on the shelf. Palmer played 61% of the snaps last week and garnered seven targets, going for 4/66/1. He’s going to see a role increase here for sure with Quentin Johnston likely seeing more opportunity as well. Palmer and Allen stacked on DraftKings makes a lot of sense.

DaVante Adams FD 8100 DK 8000
Opponent LAC
Proj Points FD - 20.52 DK - 25.02

While Justin Jefferson, Tyreek Hill, and Stefon Diggs are all in great spots this week, they are all coming a tier above Adams in terms of pricing on a week where every dollar counts. Adams is 4th in targets this season and second in receiving touchdowns. The status of Jimmy G matters here but if he’s healthy then I’m fine running Adams in cash, especially on FanDuel. Again, the big ticket guys are all good plays, but we can’t just play solely the most expensive dudes.

Adam Thielen FD 6800 DK 4500
Opponent MIN
Proj Points FD - 14.44 DK - 18.16

Don’t look now but Adam Thielen has absolutely been a volume hog in terms of target share this season and it’s been from two different quarterbacks on the Panthers. His 25 targets through the first three weeks rank him 24th among all wide receivers and the price in full PPR on DraftKings is just too low if this is the way the Panthers' passing game (such as it were) is going to funnel looks. I like him as a floor play at very low prices.

Tight End

Jake Ferguson FD 5100 DK 3500
Opponent NE
Proj Points FD - 10.44 DK - 13.05

Gerald Everett FD 5000 DK 3600
Opponent LV
Proj Points FD - 9.55 DK - 12.08

As we say most weeks, at tight end we are simply looking for the cheapest way to get production out of the position and move on. It’s just the nature of how these are set up on sites most slates. Ferguson is TE6 in targets this season and getting looks from Dak in the Cowboys’ offense. This matchup should set up for him to be an outlet once again.

And then there is Everett who could be another dude to benefit from the Mike Williams injury. The latter saw six targets last week, the most of the season for him. The snap count increased as well which is a good sign going forward.

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