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Daily Fantasy NFL Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - Week 1
Welcome back football fans. Week one in the NFL is here and DFSR has you covered. Let's get the season underway baby!
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Quarterbacks
Lamar Jackson FD 8900 DK 8000
Opponent HOU
Proj Points FD - 23.3 DK - 23.3
Lamar Jackson settled his contract dispute during the off-season is back leading what looks to be a top offense in the NFL season. The Ravens added new weapons through the draft and free agency while also upgrading the offensive coordinator position now that Todd Monken has the reins. It should lead to a lot of scoring from this group and they come in as -10 favorites at home against the Texans.
The floor is incredibly high here for Jackson who should still have all of the same rushing floor while also adding significant upside in the passing game that we’ve only seen in fits and starts over the last few years. Of the elite group of QBs, he is priced just a tick below and is clearly right in the same tier.
Sam Howell FD 7100 DK 4900
Opponent ARI
Proj Points FD - 18.81 DK - 18.81
Sam Howell started only one game last season and it was in the final week against the Cowboys. But in that one, he showed some glimpses of why he’s seen as something of a fantasy sleeper this season. The 11-19 for 169 yards was meh, but the five rushes for 35 yards and a touchdown is where his bread could get buttered.
Howell ran a ton (a ton!) in college, racking up more than 800 yards on the ground in his final season at North Carolina. And that should translate here. Plus, he draws one of the week’s best matchups against a terrible Cardinals team that might have already packed it in before the season even starts. At $4900 on DraftKings, Howell has a high floor at punt QB pricing and allows for tons of roster flexibility.
Running Back
Austin Ekeler FD 9000 DK 8400
Opponent MIA
Proj Points FD - 19.74 DK - 23.32
In 2022, Austin Ekeler was first among running backs in receiving targets (127) and sixth in overall RB usage. Oh, and he finished RB1 in DraftKings scoring as well. In Week 1, the Chargers, who have Kellen Moore now as the OC, will square off against the Dolphins in the game with (easily) the biggest total of the main slate at 50.5. Playing Ekeler in this spot is a pretty easy call, especially on DK, and he has such a high floor in this matchup. In terms of priority spending, this is the spot to pay at running back.
Alexander Mattison FD 7300 DK 6500
Opponent TB
Proj Points FD - 14.7 DK - 16.13
The Vikings had no problem letting Dalvin Cook walk in the off-season and now will roll with Alexander Mattison as their feature back to start this year. They do have Ty Chandler waiting in the wings here and it’s a bit unclear if Mattison will be a true, three-down back throughout, but to start the year I think we can run with him in cash at these prices.
The Vikings are -6 home favorites against the Bucs, the sweet spot for cash game running back plays and I think, at least to start, Mattison will be heavily featured in this offense.
Wide Receiver
Tyreek Hill FD 8800 DK 8200
Opponent LAC
Proj Points FD - 18.54 DK - 22.63
There are a number of big-tag wide receivers on this slate who could definitely play off. Playing Justin Jefferson or Ja'Marr Chase is totally reasonable considering the circumstances. But considering the line for this game is through the roof (as we mentioned with Ekeler), having exposure to what could be a track meet is the way to go.
Tyreek was WR2 on DraftKings last season and that was with Tua Tagovailoa playing only 13 games and not even completing that many. This is a smash spot for a (for now) full-strength Dolphins team. Hill coming a little cheaper than Jefferson on both sites helps as well.
Courtland Sutton FD 5900 DK 5200
Opponent LV
Proj Points FD - 10.67 DK - 12.97
Marvin Mims Jr. FD 4700 DK 3000
Opponent LV
Proj Points FD - 9.75 DK - 11.72
It really looks like Jerry Jeudy is going to sit at least the first game of the season out and that should open up opportunity for both Courtland Sutton and Marvin Mims in the Broncos’ passing game. While not a high-flying offense (clearly) last season, Denver did bring Sean Payton in the door and there’s hope this side of the balls takes a major step forward.
Sutton did garner more than seven targets per game last season when he was on the field and will be WR1 for this first week. Plus, the Broncos did use draft capital on Marvin Mims and he’s locked into the WR2 spot right out of the game. He’s coming at the minimum on DraftKings which really helps with roster flexibility.
In the middle tier, I do like Chris Olave here with Derek Carr as his quarterback. The passing game should be considerably more accurate and the dome conditions play well.
Keep an eye on the Terry McLaurin situation in Washington. It was really looking like he would be out meaning Jahan Dotson was going to be a popular play on both sites. But Scary Terry has been upgraded to day-to-day so there’s some hope he plays. We’ll have more on this situation closer to game time.
Tight End
Kyle Pitts FD 6000 DK 4500
Opponent CAR
Proj Points FD - 9.29 DK - 11.26
Marcus Mariota is out and Desmond Ridder is in full-time for an Atlanta Falcons offense that should take a major step forward this season. There are more mouths to feed with Bijan Robinson in the mix on a team that loves to run. But I like the price on Kyle Pitts here, especially on DraftKings.
The two didn’t play together last season with Pitts out at the end of the year, but Ridder did target the TE (Pruitt) in his final two games. We could look at Pitts’ price as something of a joke in just a week or two if things break right.
Juwan Johnson FD 5100 DK 3900
Opponent TEN
Proj Points FD - 7.85 DK - 9.53
We are expecting something of a breakout campaign for Juwan Johnson this season with Derek Carr under center. The latter has supported TE production at other spots in his career, and the early gains have been there already. It’s something of a flyer, but typically that’s the way we want to go at this position considering how few guys are “worth it” on a week-to-week basis.
