(AP Photo/Frank Franklin II)
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TPC Deere Run
Par 71 - 7,289 Yards
Greens - Bentgrass
**Click the image above to see a hole-by-hole breakdown from PGATour.com**
Russell Henley
World Golf Ranking (#29)
Vegas Odds (16/1)
DraftKings ($10,400)
FanDuel ($11,800)
While the price has reached a season-high, it is hard not to start with Henley who checks all the boxes. He returns to TPC Deere Run where he has enjoyed success having made the cut in all three trips with a T27 in 2014, T2 in 2019, and T11 in 2021. He also comes in with excellent form having finished Top 20 in four straight and eight of his last nine events while ranking(in this field) 1st in SG: Approach, 1st in par 4 scoring, and 18th in DK points over the last 24 rounds. The only concern is the putter and the good news is that he has gained strokes on the green in three of his last four. Fire up Henley in all formats.
Alex Smalley
World Golf Ranking (#85)
Vegas Odds (35/1)
DraftKings ($8,900)
FanDuel ($10,200)
Smalley is another player who checks all the boxes in my model this week and has a similar makeup as Henley, just cheaper. Smalley has played the John Deere Classic in each of the last two years finishing T47 in 2021 and T16 last year. He now returns for a third time and comes in with some nice form having made the cut in six of his last seven events including a T9 at the Travelers in late June. Driving his success has been the tremendous iron play as he has gained strokes on approach in 11 straight events and has gained a whopping 14.1 total over his last two events. Like Henley, if he can even just putt around field average or slightly better, he can contend in this weak field.
Nick Taylor
World Golf Ranking (#45)
Vegas Odds (35/1)
DraftKings ($8,200)
FanDuel ($9,800)
Nick Taylor has been anything but consistent lately missing three of his last four cuts but he did sandwich a HUGE win for Canada in there with a victory at the RBC Canadian Open. Furthermore, when he is making cuts, he always seems to be in the mix with five Top 10's and nine Top 25 finishes on the season. He has made the cut here in three of his last four trips and fits the stats profile I am targeting as he ranks 15th in SG: Approach, , 5th in Par 4 scoring, 7th in Opportunities Gained, 10th in Birdies gained, and 4th in DK scoring over the last 24 rounds. The inconsistency should help keep the ownership in check and that is perfect for a guy with Taylor's upside.
Doug Ghim
World Golf Ranking (#177)
Vegas Odds (50/1)
DraftKings ($8,000)
FanDuel ($9,500)
Ghim comes into the John Deere Classic on a nice run of form having finished T33 or better in five straight events with three Top 20 finishes. During that stretch, he has gained four or more strokes tee to green four times and four or more strokes on approach twice. Looking at the stats over the last 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 5th in SG: Tee to Green, 23rd in SG: Approach, and what he lacks in distance off the tee he makes up for with pinpoint accuracy from long range(17th & 6th in Prox from 175-200 & 200+ yards). The results have been up and down here at TPC Deere Run missing the cut last year but does have a T18 in 2021 so the upside is there. I will have exposure in all formats.
Justin Lower
World Golf Ranking (#175)
Vegas Odds (100/1)
DraftKings ($7,000)
FanDuel ($8,600)
Lower is a bit of a wildcard down in the "scrub" range as he has made just 50% of his cuts this season but has the upside to crush his price from a PTS/$ perspective. He is coming off an impressive T8 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic where he gained strokes in all Strokes Gained areas. It was his second Top 25 finish(T25 RBC Canadian Open the other) and in both he gained over seven strokes putting. While those are season-highs and definitely outliers, he is good with the putter having gained strokes on the green in six of his last seven events. He made the cut(T51) here last year in his first trip to TPC Deere Run and I think he can do much better in his second trip. I won't have any exposure in cash but will have plenty in my GPP builds.
Others I am considering in my player pool: Eric Cole, Adam Schenk, Mark Hubbard, Callum Tarren, Chesson Hadley, Satoshi Kodaira
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