Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic against the Golden State Warriors during an NBA basketball game in San Francisco, Tuesday, Dec. 28, 2021. (AP Photo/Jeff Chiu)
We're going to take a little bit of a different approach when evaluating this slate. We only have two games to discuss, so we will offer up a stud and a value play at all five positions. It should be easy to mix and match these players in your lineup because it's tough to fade the superstars on such a critical slate. We have two Game 4s to discuss, and the two home teams are staring down the barrel of a 2-1 deficit. That should lead to some intense environments, and it'll be fun to watch these clubs battle.
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Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 39.54 DK - 41.24
This DraftKings price is silly. Murray always seems to play his best basketball when the stakes are the highest, posting some of the best postseason numbers in the NBA. Over his last two playoffs, Murray is averaging 26.5 points, 5.0 rebounds, 6.7 assists, and 1.0 steals per game. That equates to nearly 40 DraftKings points per game, which is right on par with his average over the last two months. Jamal has also slaughtered the Suns over the last three years, scoring at least 39 DK points in eight of their last 11 matchups. This guy should be locked into 40 minutes and 20 shots, making him way too cheap below $8K.
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 28.89 DK - 29.29
Smart doesn't have a huge ceiling, but this guy is too good to be this cheap. The veteran always seems to have a bump in playing time during the regular season, averaging nearly 35 DK points per game over the last five playoff years. That's all you can ask for from a $5K player, especially since Smart averaged nearly 30 DK points per game during the regular season. We've also seen Smart total a 33-point average across 31 minutes a night since the playoffs started, and it's hard to understand why he's so cheap in such a critical game. He's also had his way with the Sixers, scoring at least 30 DK points in four of their six matchups this season.
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 49.77 DK - 51.02
If you want to fade Booker, good luck! This guy was already tough to fade when Chris Paul was the primary ball-handler, but Book is impossible to fade with the All-Star point guard injured. That's adding more usage on to Booker's platter-sized plate, averaging 43 minutes and 25 shots over his last seven outings. He could be in for 30-35 shots and 45 minutes with CP3 missing and Phoenix staring down an 0-2 deficit. It's not like he's had empty production in that monstrous role, averaging nearly 65 fantasy points per game in that span. This dude had 77 DK points on just 25 shots and two free throws, so it's scary to think what he could do with more volume.
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 20.98 DK - 20.84
We have to find some cheap players to squeeze in, and KCP looks like a decent punt play. The three-and-D winger has been a sneaky piece for the Nuggets all season, regularly playing 35 minutes a night. He's also a good bet for double-digit shots, and that's the role we're looking for from a $4K player. We saw Caldwell-Pope provide 27 DK points across 41 minutes in Game 1, and if he can duplicate that. KCP will be in every optimal lineup out there. He's actually had success against the Suns all year, scoring at least 27 DK points in three of their four matchups before that Game 2 dud.
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 57.53 DK - 58.22
Durant has really struggled with his shot over the last two games, but he's still producing. The former MVP is shooting just 38 percent from the field and 18 percent from three-point range over the last two games but is still averaging 44 minutes and 29 shots a game. This has been one of the most efficient players in the history of the NBA, and he could provide 80 fantasy points if he continues to take 30 shots and play 45 minutes a night. KD has established a high floor despite the shooting slump, scoring at least 44 DraftKings points in 11 of his last 12 outings. Look for the Slim Reaper to be feeling it in this must-win Game 4.
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 23.57 DK - 23.41
Not enough people talk about how good Brown is for this team. This is the primary playmaker off the bench, and he's been the third-best player at times for this team throughout the regular season. BB is averaging 29 DK points per game across his last 17 outings. That's absurd from such an affordable player, especially since Brown scored at least 21 DK points in 16 of those 17 outings. That fantastic floor is brilliant from a sub-$5K player because using Brown makes getting studs like KD, Booker, Murray, Tatum, and Jokic into your lineup much easier.
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 55.54 DK - 57.27
The power forward position has been a nightmare all season, but Tatum has been a pleasant surprise. He's been the most reliable guy at that position, scoring at least 29 DraftKings points in all 74 regular season games. He's been even better throughout this postseason, scoring at least 53 DK points in six of his last eight outings. Much like the rest of these studs, it's the robust role that's kept JT so valuable. He's guaranteed for 25 shots and 40 minutes a game, averaging nearly 50 DK points per game in his seven meetings with the Sixers this year.
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 36.54 DK - 36.55
Gordon is one of the best per-dollar plays on this slate. There aren't many 40-minute players sitting around $6K on both sites, but that's the role AG is looking at to guard Kevin Durant. He's been productive with that workload all season, averaging 32 DraftKings points per game. That alone is brilliant from a $6K player, and it's actually below our lofty 37-point projection. All he needs is 30-35 fantasy points to be a good value, and he's averaging 35 DK points per game in his six matchups with the Suns this season.
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 63.64 DK - 66.1
If you're going to trust any player on this slate, it needs to be Jokic. This guy won two-straight MVPs for a reason, leading the NBA with 60 DraftKings points per game during the regular season. He was even better before a lackluster final month, but it's evident that Denver was limiting their star to have him ready for this postseason run. He's looked ready, scoring at least 72 DK points in four of his last five games. We're not sure another player in the NBA had a stretch like that all season, but it's less surprising since Joker is averaging 31 points, 17 rebounds, and 10.2 assists in his five matchups with Phoenix.
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 25.96 DK - 26.46
Veterans always seem to do better in the postseason, and Big Al is one of those guys. The former All-Star is averaging nearly 35 DraftKings points per game throughout his playoff career. He's also got a 34-point average across his last four outings and averaged over 30 DK points per game over the closing month of the regular season. That's what you expect to see from a guy like this, and it makes it hard to understand why he remains so cheap. The Celtics need Big Al to play 35-40 minutes to oppose Joel Embiid, scoring at least 28 fantasy points in four of their last five matchups. All of that makes it look like 30 DK points is a guarantee, and that's a wonderful pairing with the studs mentioned before.
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