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TPC Southwind
Par 70 - 7,237 Yards
Greens - Bermuda
Rory McIlroy
World Golf Ranking (#3)
Vegas Odds (8/1)
DraftKings ($11,100)
FanDuel ($12,100)
Hard not to start with Rory who has some of the best course history by any player on any course here at Quail Hollow. He has won here three times including last year, 2015, and he also picked up his first career win here back in 2010. On top of that, he has five other Top 10's(8 total) and has finished T16 or better in nine of 10 trips. While the course history is spectacular, the form is not quite there as he is coming off back-to-back missed cuts at the Masters and Players Championship. His course history will definitely drive 20%+ GPP ownership so I am aiming to be lower than the field as I love balanced builds a little bit more this week but you can never deny the huge upside for Rory, especially here at Quail Hollow.
Gary Woodland
World Golf Ranking (#83)
Vegas Odds (80/1)
DraftKings ($7,600)
FanDuel ($9,400)
Woodland and Quail Hollow weren't exactly friends early on as his first three trips resulted in a 73rd, T68, and T61 but since then things have been much better. He has tallied Top 25 finishes in four of his last five trips(remove the WD in 2019) including two Top 5's, one of which came last year. The veteran isn't coming in with the greatest form but for the price I am not complaining as he has made the cut in five straight and eight of his last nine events and is 5th in this field in ball striking over the last 24 rounds. The issue has been around the green and putting but again, at this price I like the floor of a Top 30 finish and if he can even go field average putting, has Top 10 upside here once again.
Patrick Cantlay
World Golf Ranking (#4)
Vegas Odds (12/1)
DraftKings ($10,500)
FanDuel ($11,900)
There is no shortage of players in top form at this elevated event but Cantlay is Top 2 in every area of my form model this week, both long-term and short-term. He has done everything but win recently with a Top 20 in four straight events including three Top 5's, two of which were elevated events(Arnold Palmer Invitational, RBC Heritage). From a stats perspective, he is 5th in SG: Tee to Green, 1st in SG: Off the Tee, 1st in Proximity from 200+ yards, and 1st in both Par 4 and 5 scoring. With all the guys at the top with much better course history, I feel Cantlay will also come in as one of the lower owned in that range making him one of my favorite GPP play this week to start my builds.
Sahith Theegala
World Golf Ranking (#24)
Vegas Odds (40/1)
DraftKings ($8,200)
FanDuel ($9,800)
Theegala has reached his highest price since the WM Phoenix Open but it is fully warranted, even in this elevated event. That is because he comes in with elite form coming off a T5 at the RBC Heritage(elevated event) and T9 at the Masters. He has also been extremely consistent making 15 of 16 cuts on the season and 41 of 47(87%) going back to the start of last year. He has above-average distance and while the long irons are field-average-at-best, he makes up for it with a very good around-the-green and putting game. Theegala is one of my favourite targets for a balanced build this week.
Viktor Hovland
World Golf Ranking (#12)
Vegas Odds (18/1)
DraftKings ($9,200)
FanDuel ($10,600)
Hovland is #1 in my overall model this week as he returns to Quail Hollow after a T3 in his first trip last year. He is a wonderful course fit in from a stats perspective as he is one of only a few players to rank Top 30 in both driving distance and accuracy and ranks 7th in SG: Ball Striking, 15th/1tth in Proximity from 175-200 and 200+ yards, 9th in Par 4 scoring, 6th in par 4 scoring from 450-500 yards and he is also Top 10 in DraftKings scoring over the last six events. Another top target for me in a balanced build.
Eric Cole
World Golf Ranking (#130)
Vegas Odds (225/1)
DraftKings ($6,800)
FanDuel ($8,200)
Whether you are going full balanced in the $8K/$9K range on DraftKings or want to play star and scrubs, Eric Cole fits the build from a stats perspective. He is 25th in my overall model led by his putter which has him ranked 15th in SG: Putting(13th on Bermuda) and what he lacks in distance off the tee, he makes up for with average to above-average long irons. Looking more from a recent form perspective, he is Top 20 in SG: Approach, Par 4 scoring, and SG: putting over the last 24 rounds, as well. One of my favourite bottom-end value plays this week.
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