(AP Photo/Jeff Chiu)
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Early
Opponent - OAK (JP Sears) Park - OAK
FD - 43.72 DK - 24.49
On a very weak slate for pitching we will be loading up with one of the best in the game and arguably ever(too early??) in Shohei Ohtani. He is coming off his best start of the season holding the Royals to two hits while striking out 11 and the cupcake schedule continues as he faces the A's for the second time after holding them scoreless and striking out 10 on opening day. The A's are also a bottom-five offense against right-handed pitching(.286 wOBA/86 wRC+/24.8% Krate). All things considered, Ohtani is once again an elite play in all formats. Now let's find some value!
Also Consider: Both pitchers in the SEA/PHI game are in play but I like the savings with the home side and Matt Strahm(PHI) who has provided a ton of upside coming off an 11-K effort and has an elite 38% K rate and 15.4% whiff rate on the season
Main
Opponent - CHW (Dylan Cease) Park - CHW
FD - 38.79 DK - 21.6
We have a little bit more of a decision to make on the main slate with three aces on the mound but it's Rays ace who is jumping off the page. In his third season in the league, he continues to get better in every area and enters the night 4-0 in five starts while allowing just six earned runs(1.86 ERA). He has not only been consistent and has provided a high floor, but he also has huge upside with a 32.5% K rate that could be higher based on his ridiculous 20.3% whiff rate. If you are not sold yet he also gets an elite matchup against a White Sox team that has been shut out in back-to-back games and has lost seven straight while scoring just 2.1 runs per game. McClanahan is my top pitcher in all formats on the main slate.
Also Consider: Joey Lucchesi(NYM) who looked terrific in his first start of the season going seven innings allowing four hits, no earned runs, and striking out nine Giants in a win.
Early
Opponent - LAD (Julio Urías) Park - LAD
FD - 7.74 DK - 5.8
The Pirates have been an incredible story to start the 2023 season leading the NL Central and veteran Carlos Santana has fit right in with the rebuilding team. He enters Thursday's game with hits in five straight, has gotten on base in 18 for his last 20 for a .380+ OBP and has tallied 10 runs and 13 RBI during that stretch. While the matchup may not look great on paper, the Pirates face Urias at the right time as he has given up 15 hits and seven earned runs in his last two starts and Santana, as a switch hitter, has been much better against lefties(.376 wOBA/147 wRC+ since start of last year). His price works if building around Ohtani and is in my core in all formats.
Main
Opponent - DET (Joey Wentz) Park - DET
FD - 10.17 DK - 7.73
The Orioles are another team that is a bit of a surprise entering the night a whopping eight games over .500 given their young core of players. Mountcastle is one of those and while he is likely never going to be an average guy he has a ton of power and hits in the heart of the order. There has been some struggles against right-handed pitching early on(.185 avg/.235 wOBA) but the good news is he faces a lefty tonight and has crushes that split to the tune of a .344 average and .447 wOBA. Fire up Mountcastle in all formats.
Early
Opponent - SF (Logan Webb) Park - SF
FD - 8.53 DK - 6.47
After getting a taste of the big leagues last year and showing some power upside, Nolan Gorman is taking his game to the next level in 2023. It's early but the K rate has dropped while increasing the walk rate which has resulted in a .294 average and .378 OBP and that power stroke remains as he has six home runs and 22 RBI already. That tremendous start has earned him a bump up in the lineup as he is now hitting 3rd between Goldy and Arenado. With that kind of opportunity the price is going to go up fast so I will be buying low today and have exposure in all formats.
Main
Opponent - DET (Joey Wentz) Park - DET
FD - 7.82 DK - 5.98
The theme of this article is elite pitching and value bats so let's go right back to the Orioles on the main slate. Urias is having the best start to a season of his career and while he isn't a big upside guy he has provided a ton of consistency with a .292 average while getting on base at a .387 clip. He has been better against right-handed pitching but at these prices, hitting 5th in a plus matchup, I will have exposure in all formats as a middle-of-the-order O's stack helps us load up on pitching.
Early
Opponent - MIA (Braxton Garrett) Park - MIA
FD - 9.25 DK - 7.17
Grissom got off to a dynamite start in Triple-A(.366 avg/.453 wOBA) and was rewarded for it with a promotion to the majors in mid-April. While he is somewhat buried in the Braves lineup, he has picked up where he left off in the minors with hits in nine of his first 11 games with six runs batted in. The Braves are a top-three team in terms of implied runs and with the need to load up on Shohei today, I will most definitely have exposure to Grissom in all formats.
Main
Opponent - TEX (Andrew Heaney) Park - TEX
FD - 9.97 DK - 7.61
More value at the position on the main slate and I am still a little shocked the price has yet to fully adjust to Volpe's new role in the leadoff spot. He has now played 12 games at the top of the Yankees' order, recorded hits in nine of them, got on base in 11 of them and has filled up the counting stats with seven runs, seven RBI, and five stolen bases. This may only be an average matchup against Heaney, the Yanks are third in implied runs and it's nearly impossible to ignore the value price here. I love him as a one-off value piece for cash games and as a part of a full Yankees stack in GPP formats.
Early
Opponent - MIA (Braxton Garrett) Park - MIA
FD - 12.76 DK - 9.62
While Riley has cooled off some over the last week or so(hits in four of last eight), he is still one of the highest-upside third basemen in the league, especially against left-handed pitching. He already has three long balls against southpaws in 2023 and going back to the start of last season, he has a ridiculous .458 wOBA, 196 wRC+, and .347 ISO in the split. Riley is easily my top play at third base today on both sites but his best value comes on FanDuel where he is somehow in the low $3K range. Lock and load!
Main
Opponent - TEX (Andrew Heaney) Park - TEX
FD - 8.41 DK - 6.47
Third base is a wasteland on the main slate but luckily we get some more value in the middle of the Yankees lineup with DJ LeMahieu. The two-time batting champ is not the same player we remember but is still having a solid start hitting .280 and comes in with hits in four of his last five games. While we try to stay away from BvP, for the most part it's hard to ignore the success LeMahieu has had against Heaney going 6 for 12 with a .542 wOBA. He is projected to hit cleanup today and at these prices, especially on DraftKings, I will have exposure in all formats.
Early
Opponent - LAD (Julio Urías) Park - LAD
FD - 7.5 DK - 5.67
Back to the Pirates and their terrific start to the season and one of the players who has played a huge role as a utility player. Joe has slumped a bit in the short-term with no hits in his last four starts but he still comes in hitting .308 on the season while getting on base at a ridiculous .400 clip. Better yet, he has crushed lefties so far to the tune of a .368 average, .494 wOBA, and 213 wRC+. Tougher matchup but value bats are much needed on this Ohtani slate.
Main
Opponent - KC (Zack Greinke) Park - KC
FD - 12.44 DK - 9.37
Buxton is probably priced right where he should be on DraftKings and if you can fit him great but don't force it. On FanDuel, it's an entirely different story as he remains in the sub $3K range(LOL) despite hits in five of his last six games including three doubles and two home runs. This is a terrific buy-low in a plus matchup against Zack Greinke who has struggled a bit recently giving up 11 earned runs and five long balls over his last three starts.
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