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FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Sunday, 4/16/23
How awesome was it to watch that opening day of the playoffs? The final two games of the night were spectacular, and I can't wait to keep it going. Every day is going to be a bloodbath because these teams play harder than ever before. We have four games making up this Sunday slate, but all the games are spread throughout the day. Get your lineups in early!
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Point Guard
Jamal Murray FD - $8400 DK - $7600
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 38.77 DK - 40.18
We've seen Murray look like one of the best players in the postseason in the past, and that makes it hard to understand why he's just $8,000 with the way he's been playing. The talented guard has scored at least 37 DraftKings points in 15 of his last 18 games. He's also averaging 41 DK points per game in that span, doing a ton of playmaking with Nikola Jokic swallowing up so many defenders. That fantastic form should carry over well against Minnesota, ranked 19th in points allowed while surrendering the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing PGs. In their most recent meeting, Murray totaled 42 fantasy points!
Mike Conley FD - $6900 DK - $6400
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 31.22 DK - 31.89
Not many people talked about Minnesota acquiring Conley at the trade deadline, and it's hard to understand why. This veteran has come in and become one of their leaders, scoring 31 and 44 DK points in the T'Wolves two play-in games. We've seen him play like that since the trade, with Conley compiling a 32-point average across his last 17 outings. That's all you can ask for from a sub-$7K player, and you know Minnesota will lean on their veteran in this opening road playoff game. He's had success against Denver all year, averaging 30 DK points per game in their two matchups. That's no surprise since the Nuggets own a 23rd OPRK against opposing PGs.
Shooting Guard
Norman Powell FD - $6700 DK - $5700
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 26.88 DK - 27.77
It was unclear who would benefit from Paul George's injury, but it's clear that Powell is the primary beneficiary. That's moved him into the starting lineup, posting a 31 percent usage rate with PG13 off the floor. His recent form is what makes Powell so enticing, though, scoring at least 38 DraftKings points in his final three regular season games. Those were de facto playoff games for the Clippers, and it's a good indicator of how Powell is going to be utilized in this offense going forward. Phoenix is a tough matchup on paper, but Powell dropped 38 fantasy points against them just last week.
Max Strus FD - $5200 DK - $4800
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 15.25 DK - 15.22
This is a risky pick, but Strus showed us some serious upside in Miami's most recent play-in game. The sharpshooter finished that masterpiece with 44 DraftKings points and carried the Heat's offense on his shoulders. What makes him tough to fade is his role, taking 16 shots in that game while playing 36 minutes. We've seen him do that a ton this season, and he was a $6K player when he went on stretches like that throughout the regular season. We actually saw him play 41 and 42 minutes in his first two games against Milwaukee, and it's clear Miami needs him to play big minutes with the lack of shooting on this roster.
Small Forward
Kevin Durant FD - $10000 DK - $9000
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 46.81 DK - 47.51
It's pretty wild to see Durant sitting at just $9,000 on DraftKings. This guy has been a five-figure player throughout his career, and you know he'll return to that player in the postseason. The superstar is averaging 49 DraftKings points per game, which is the fifth-most among all players on this slate. That makes the pricing impossible to understand, with KD sitting 10th in salary. That's a simple recipe of the price not matching the production, and it doesn't even take into consideration his diminished average from missing so many games. The Clippers are far from a concerning matchup for KD, scoring 47 DK points against them in their most recent meeting.
Kyle Anderson FD - $6400 DK - $7000
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 24.63 DK - 23.94
Anderson has developed into one of the most underrated players in the NBA. What's funny about KA is the fact that he's being asked to do a ton of playmaking for this talented team. That's hard to fathom with KAT, ANT and Conley on the roster, but it's led to Anderson averaging 35 DraftKings points per game across his last 22 outings. He's done that damage despite coming off the bench in many of those, and his stat-stuffing makes this pricing mind-boggling. He's also had his way with this subpar Denver defense, scoring 43 DK points in two of their three matchups.
Power Forward
Kawhi Leonard FD - $10700 DK - $10200
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 46.03 DK - 46.23
We just discussed how Powell is one of the primary beneficiaries of PG13's injury, but it obviously impacts Kawhi more than anybody. This superstar is being asked to do everything for the Clippers, posting a 32 percent usage rate with George off the floor. He's also averaging 1.4 DK points per minute in those circumstances, averaging nearly 50 DK points per game over the final two months of the regular season. The Claw has also scored at least 36 DK points in 33 of his last 35 games, which is one of the highest floors in the NBA. This stud will be motivated against a star-studded team like the Suns, scoring 52 fantasy points against them just last week.
Karl-Anthony Towns FD - $9900 DK - $8300
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 44.56 DK - 46.34
This $8,300 price tag on DraftKings makes no sense at all. Towns has hovered around $10K on both sites for the majority of his career, and to be sitting this low in a playoff game is really bizarre. We're going to capitalize on that mistake, with KAT scoring 53 and 54 DK points in Minnesota's two play-in games. We don't necessarily expect him to duplicate that, but his 41-point average for the season isn't asking for too much. That alone would be an immense value from an $8,300 player, and we love that Towns has at least 49 DK points in three straight matchups with the Nuggets.
Center
Nikola Jokic FD - $12100 DK - $11500
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 57.2 DK - 60.16
The Joker was in a bit of a slump to close the season, but that was due to Denver resting him for many of those games. This was still the highest-scoring player for most of the year, averaging nearly 60 DraftKings points per game. He was well above 60 a month ago, establishing a 50-point floor throughout most of the year. There's simply nobody who stuffs the stat sheet like this big man, and he's typically been more aggressive when Denver finds their way into the postseason. He's also killed Rudy Gobert throughout his career, averaging 62 DK points per game in his three matchups with the T'Wolves this season.
Ivica Zubac FD - $6500 DK - $5400
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 27.03 DK - 28.31
Zoo is a risky option, but if he plays the 25-30 minutes we saw in the final month of the season, he shouldn't be this cheap. The big man played at least 26 minutes in 18 of the final 25 games of the regular season, averaging 29 DK points per game across 27 minutes a night. He's always proven to be an elite per-minute producer, and he's showcased a 50-point upside as well. One of those upside games could be in play against Phoenix, with Zoo scoring at least 32 fantasy points in three of his last five meetings with the Suns. This play could kill your lineup, but it could also be the critical piece to a big GPP cash.
