(AP Photo/Eric Risberg)
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Harbour Town Golf Links
Par 71 - 7,191 Yards
Greens - Bermuda
**Click the image above to see a hole-by-hole breakdown from PGATour.com**
After another thrilling finish to the Masters, we go from the Green Jacket to the Plaid Jacket as the PGA Tour heads to Harbour Town Golf Links for the 2023 RBC Heritage. If you thought last year's RBC Heritage field was good, this one is another "elevated event" and includes nine of the Top 10, 44 of the Top 50, and 71 of the Top 100 players in the OWGR.
It's not only the jacket color that changes this week as the course is a near-polar opposite of Augusta. Harbour Town is a Pete Dye special that mitigates distance off the tee and forces players to find certain areas of the fairway(or rough in the right places) if they are to have a shot at these very small Bermuda greens. With players finding fairways at an above-average rate compared to Tour average, it puts a ton of emphasis on approach shots and those players who are dialled in with their irons are the ones who find their way to the top of the leaderboard comes Sunday. With the course being a par 71, there is also one less Par 5 hole which pushes Par 4 scoring way up my weights in the model. With all that said, let's get into the picks.
Patrick Cantlay
World Golf Ranking (#4)
Vegas Odds (14/1)
DraftKings ($10,300)
FanDuel ($11,500)
As of writing this, I have no clue what I am doing with the top two guys(Scheffler, Rahm) and will probably end up being underweight on both. That leads me to a more balanced approach or at least a stars and scrubs approach with a potential three top players. While Cantlay hasn't won here at Harbour Town, he returns with excellent course history having finished Top 10 in four of his five trips including a playoff loss and runner-up finish last year. He doesn't just play well here, he also plays well on all Pete Dye courses as he ranks 6th in my model going back to the start of the 2021 season. Finally, he enters with some good form with Top 20 finishes in four straight including two Top 5's at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and Genesis Open. I think Cantlay contends and possibly breaks through here and is one of my top overall plays this week.
Matt Kuchar
World Golf Ranking (#51)
Vegas Odds (45/1)
DraftKings ($7,700)
FanDuel ($10,000)
There is arguably no golfer in the field who has been more consistent here at Harbour Town than Matt Kuchar. I only show the last ten years on the sheet when looking at course history but Kuchar's goes back much further than that. Since missing the cut here in his first trip wayyyy back in 2003, he has made 18 straight including a win in 2014, seven Top 10's and 12 Top 25 finishes. Let's just say he knows how to get around these positional courses. I also like the form as he is coming off a T3 at the Valero and also made it out of the group stage of the Match Play. I will have exposure to Kuchar in all formats.
Sungjae Im
World Golf Ranking (#17)
Vegas Odds (33/1)
DraftKings ($8,600)
FanDuel ($10,300)
Sungjae checks almost every single box this week and it starts with his incredible consistency. He comes into this week having made the cut in nine straight and 13 of 14 events on the season and going back to the start of last year, has made 33 of 38 cuts(87%) on Tour. He now returns to Harbour Town where he has finished Top 25 in each of the last two years and he is also 12th in both my long-term and short-term stats models and is #2 in my Pete Dye model. Ride the form and get Sunjae into your lineups in all formats.
Ben Martin
World Golf Ranking (#199)
Vegas Odds (175/1)
DraftKings ($7,100)
FanDuel ($8,500)
After a rocky start to the season(Five MC & only one Top 25 first nine events), Martin has been very consistent for the past two months. He has not only made the cut in six straight events but has four finishes of T13 or better including Top 10's in his last two events. He was especially good at the Valero where he gained over four strokes both off the tee and on approach and finished 2nd in ball striking behind Corey Conners. He has some shaky course history over the years but enters with much better form and similar to when he finished T3 here back in 2014. I love the price on both sites and Martin is one of my top value plays this week.
Collin Morikawa
World Golf Ranking (#11)
Vegas Odds (18/1)
DraftKings ($10,000)
FanDuel ($11,300)
Morikawa is another player who checks all the boxes this week and it starts with the course fit and stats model as he is 5th and 6th in my short and long-term models this week. Looking specifically at the short-term model, which ties into his form, Morikawa ranks 3rd in SG: Tee to Green, 5th in Fairways Gained. 5th in SG: Approach, and 10th/9th in Par 4/5 scoring over the last 24 rounds. That has led to some terrific form this season as he has made the cut in eight of 10 events with finishes of T15 or better in six of his last seven. It feels he is on the cusp of ending the winless drought and I will be on the train before it happens.
Rickie Fowler
World Golf Ranking (#58)
Vegas Odds (55/1)
DraftKings ($7,600)
FanDuel ($9,700)
After missing out on the Masters, Rickie is back in action and looking to pick up where he left off en route to being the comeback player of the year. He comes into the week having made 10 of 11 cuts on the season including four Top 10's and seven Top 25 finishes and has been playing his best golf most recently. He gained 6.4 strokes on approach at the Valero and has gained four or more strokes on approach in four of his last six events. In this elite field, he ranks 6th in SG: Approach, 18th i par 4 scoring, 7th in opportunities gained, and 3rd in birdies gained over the last 24 rounds. I like him on both sites but mostly focusing my exposure to Rickie on DraftKings where he comes in the mid $7K range.
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