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FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Wednesday, 4/5/23
Playing DFS right now is not for the faint of heart. In fact, I wouldn't even play unless you have a ton of free time before first tip. We have whole teams resting players at this point, and it's imperative to follow every bit of news you see. That becomes even more critical on this slate because half the league is playing the second half of a back-to-back set.
Those teams include Atlanta, Boston, Brooklyn, Chicago, Detroit, Los Angeles (Lakers), Memphis, Milwaukee, New Orleans, Sacramento, Toronto, and Washington. This week has already been chaotic, but these B2Bs will make this one of the most fascinating slates of the season.
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Point Guard
Luka Doncic FD - $12200 DK - $12000
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 64.06 DK - 65.99
The Mavs got a gift when OKC blew a double-digit lead on Tuesday, and it should guarantee Doncic a few more starts. A win will move them to a tie with OKC, and you know this team will ride their superstar in this must-win game. Doncic is more than a superstar, though, leading the NBA with over 60 DraftKings points per game.
His league-leading usage has led to that absurd average, and it should continue since he's also leading the league in usage. Sacramento is a sensational matchup, with the Kings ranked 28th in total defense. If Doncic gets the 40 minutes, 25 shots, and 40 percent usage rate we've become accustomed to, he needs to be the best bet for the top-scoring player on this slate.
Jalen Brunson FD - $9400 DK - $9200
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 42.47 DK - 43.71
This price tag is a bit lofty, but Brunson will be tough to fade with Julius Randle missing this game. With the big man off the floor, Jalen generates a 32 percent usage rate, averaging 1.3 DK points per minute. That's an elite rate, and it should be his floor here since Brunson has a 45-point average across his last eight games. The matchup with Indiana is incredible, too, with the Pacers ranked 26th in defensive efficiency and 28th in points allowed. The boost in shots, minutes, and usage makes Brunson one of the best options on the board, especially since he has a 43-point average against Indiana this year.
Derrick White (FD $6500 DK $6600) has been averaging 35 DK points per game for nearly two months now and could step into a more prominent role with Boston possibly resting some players in this B2B.
Shooting Guard
Bennedict Mathurin FD - $5700 DK - $6200
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 31.79 DK - 33.08
Rookies always tend to benefit in the final week of the season when a team is tanking, and it's clear Indiana wants to ride this youngster to the finish line. The Pacers are playing without Myles Turner and Tyrese Haliburton, allowing Mathurin to play at least 33 minutes in four straight fixtures. The rookie is also providing 22.3 raw points per game on 15 shots, and that sort of role is ridiculous from such a cheap player. He's played at least 33 minutes in 15 games this year, generating a 33-point average in those outings. It's not like New York is a challenging matchup, posting a 21st OPRK against opposing guards.
Johnny Davis FD - $4200 DK - $4800
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 27.38 DK - 28.35
You know it's silly season when we have two guys with no profile pictures at the same position. That's the nature of the final week of the season, and it looks like Davis is going to be a DFS darling in these final few games. Washington rested almost everyone on Tuesday, sitting Beal, Porzingis, Kuzma, Wright, and Avdija. That left Davis as the focal point of the offense, with Johnny collecting 41 DK points against an elite Milwaukee defense. As long as he's getting 35-40 minutes and 15-20 shots like we saw on Tuesday, Davis should never be this cheap. Atlanta is an amazing matchup, too, ranked 25th in points allowed and 23rd in defensive efficiency.
Andrew Nembhard (FD $6600 DK $6400) has been playing at point guard in the absence of Haliburton, scoring at least 32 DK points in four straight fixtures.
Small Forward
Kawhi Leonard FD - $10200 DK - $10200
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 43.75 DK - 43.65
Something tells me that Kawhi is going to go nuts in this spot. A rivalry game against the Lakers is always a big deal, but it's even more important here since these teams have the exact same record. That means the Clippers will lean on their superstar, which is enormous since Paul George is out of the lineup as well. That's led to Kawhi scoring at least 36 DraftKings points in 30 of his last 32 games. He's also flirting with a 50-point average in that span, dropping 48 DK points in his most recent meeting with the Lakers. Los Angeles has had a lackluster defense all season, ranked fifth in pace and 20th in points allowed.
Bogdan Bogdanovic FD - $5400 DK - $5000
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 31.47 DK - 32.95
Bogey has been relegated to bench duties for the majority of the season, but he always steps up when this team is shorthanded. That's likely to be the case here, with Trae Young sitting on Tuesday and Atlanta playing the second half of a B2B. That means Bogey could be one of the primary playmakers, scoring 41 DraftKings points without Young on Tuesday.
That's been a theme all year, though, with Bogdanovic posting a 31-point average in the 25 games he's played at least 28 minutes. If there's any funny business with this roster, Bogey is one of the best values on the board. Washington is a wonderful matchup as well, sitting their whole starting lineup for the remainder of the season.
Corey Kispert (FD $5200 DK $5700) has at least 34 DK points in three of his last four games and is one of the only scorers left for this tanking Washington team.
Power Forward
Jaren Jackson Jr. FD - $8200 DK - $8100
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 40.74 DK - 38.06
Jackson is one of the frontrunners for Defensive Player of the Year, but this guy is not getting enough credit for what he's doing on both ends of the floor. The big man has scored at least 37 DraftKings points in nine of his last 10 games, generating a 44-point average in that span. That's a tantalizing total from an $8K player, but it's no surprise since he's being asked to do more with Brandon Clarke and Steven Adams still sidelined. New Orleans is not a matchup we're worried about either, allowing 115 points per game over the last two months. In their most recent meeting, Jackson dropped 44 DK points!
Isaiah Jackson FD - $5800 DK - $4400
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 26.74 DK - 24.83
This is a risky recommendation, but Jackson is one of the best per-minute producers in the NBA. We already discussed how Turner is expected to sit, which should guarantee I-Jax at least 20 minutes of play. That's all he needs to be an elite fantasy option, averaging 36 DK points per game when he plays at least 23 minutes. We're talking about a player who's averaging 1.2 DK points per minute for the season, and there's no reason he should be this cheap with so many key players sitting for the Pacers. It's a matchup where his big body could be needed for 25-30 minutes because this team has no one else to match up with Mitchell Robinson.
Bobby Portis (FD $6700 DK $6600) just had 19 points, 20 rebounds, and four assists on Tuesday and could be asked to do a ton with Milwaukee potentially sitting some players in a B2B.
Center
Domantas Sabonis FD - $10100 DK - $10100
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 45.29 DK - 47.43
Domas has had an incredible year, and not enough people are talking about it. The big man has scored at least 36 DraftKings points in all but two of his last 62 games. That's hard to even fathom, with Sabonis scoring nearly 50 DK points per game in that span. This team has been running their offense through the big man out of the post, and it's led to this guy flirting with triple-double averages. One of those ceiling games seems more likely against this disastrous Dallas defense, with the Mavericks posting the worst defensive rating since acquiring Kyrie Irving. Not to mention, Domas has at least 46 DK points in eight of his last nine meetings with the Mavs, and those were actually mediocre defenses.
James Wiseman FD - $5700 DK - $5300
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 29.52 DK - 29.79
Wiseman isn't necessarily a great real-life basketball player but will provide fantasy value for this tanking team. The main reason for that is his expanded role, taking on more shots and usage in the absence of Marvin Bagley and Isaiah Stewart. That led to Wiseman playing 29 minutes and taking 14 shots on Tuesday. He's also averaging nearly 30 DK points per game since joining Detroit and shouldn't be sitting below $6,000 in this sort of role. Brooklyn is a tough matchup, but it will force Wiseman into more minutes and more rebounds to oppose Nic Claxton, who rarely leaves the paint.
Mitchell Robinson (FD $6800 DK $5400) should be asked to do more with Randle out and has showcased a 40-point upside on numerous occasions.
