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DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Monday 4/3/23
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Pitchers
Drew Rasmussen FD 10200 DK 8100
Opponent - WSH (Trevor Williams) Park - WSH
FD - 32.6 DK - 17.16
After spending most of his first two years in the league in the bullpen, the Rays fully transitioned him to a starter in 2022 and it paid off in a big way. He rewarded them with a very impressive 2.84 ERA/3.56 xFIP over 28 starts and while he does lack K upside(21.4%), he goes deep into games and finished the season going into the 6th in eight of his final nine starts. He got touched up in his first spring start but followed it up with two starts going a total of eight innings allowing just three hits and no earned runs. He now gets a strong matchup against a Nats team that scored three runs in their first two games and will most likely end up a bottom-three offence in 2023. Fire up Rasmussen in all formats.
Hunter Brown FD 9100 DK 7400
Opponent - DET (Matthew Boyd) Park - DET
FD - 14.85 DK - 8.2
Is it just me or is there has there been a heavy rollout of young up-and-coming stars earlier than ever this season? Today it's Hunter Brown who cracked the rotation out of spring training thanks to an unfortunate injury to Lance McCullers but nevertheless, it feels like Brown's time. He dominated AAA last year holding opponents to a .185 average, posting a 2.55 ERA, and best of all striking out 31.5% of batters he faced. He then got the callup in September and pitched 12 innings over two starts striking out 11 and finished the season(split starts/bullpen) with a .98 ERA/2.78 xFIP. Not only does he come cheap allowing us to load up on hitters, he also gets a plus matchup against a bottom-three Tigers' offence. I will be playing Brown in all formats.
Catcher/First Base
Freddie Freeman FD 3700 DK 5700
Opponent - COL (Ryan Feltner) Park - COL
FD - 14.1 DK - 10.7
The Dodgers are #1 in my team stack rankings on Monday and while they are expensive, we have a nice combination of value pitching to help us get there. Freeman is Top 3 in our projections tonight and is off to a solid start to the season with hits in three of four games including two multi-hit efforts. I am not at all worried about the no big hits yet as Freeman is an elite bat who has combined for a .402 wOBA and 157 wRC+ against right-handed pitching since the start of the 2021 season. He gets a fantastic matchup tonight and is in play in all formats, especially on FanDuel where he is 7th in pricing at first base.
Also consider: Matt Olson(ATL) who is still underpriced and off to a hot start with multiple hits in two of three games with two home runs
Second Base
Marcus Semien FD 3900 DK 5000
Opponent - BAL (Kyle Bradish) Park - BAL
FD - 10.75 DK - 8.25
The Rangers are one of three teams to make it through opening weekend undefeated and it's their offence that made the biggest splash leading the league with 29 runs scored. Leading the way for the Texas club is Marcus Semien who has hits in all three games, two multi-hit efforts, a home run and three RBI. The matchup also lines up as Texas is Top 5 in implied going up against Kyle Bradish who is coming off an average-at-best rookie year where he mostly struggled against right-handed bats giving up a .350 wOBA and .456 SLG. Given the matchup and hot start, it feels like Semien's price is still on its way up so I will be buying and loading up in all formats.
Also consider: Ozzie Albies(ATL) who is hitting cleanup for the Braves and has hits in all three games and has yet to strikeout
Shortstop
Corey Seager FD 3500 DK 4600
Opponent - BAL (Kyle Bradish) Park - BAL
FD - 11.66 DK - 8.87
Seager was the other big offensive splash by the Rangers last season and while year one in the "re-tool" didn't quite go as planned, 2023 is off to a much better start. The good news is that Seager, despite a drop in average, still produced for fantasy in a big way with 33 home runs, 83 RBI, and 91 runs scored. While he is still waiting for the big hit in 2023, he has still gotten off to a solid start with hits in all three games and gets one of the best matchups on the board Monday night. Seager is a buy-low on both sites and in play in all formats.
Also consider: Xander Bogaerts(SD) as an elite payup option who is crushing as a member of the Padres with hits in all four games, RBI in three straight, and home runs in two straight or Amed Rosario(CLE) on the cheap as he is hitting second, gets an above-average matchup, and has hits in three of four games to starts the season
Third Base
DJ LeMahieu FD 2700 DK 3800
Opponent - PHI (Taijuan Walker) Park - PHI
FD - 9.29 DK - 7.15
There is a ton of high-priced plays at third base but I wanted to highlight a value play in DJ LeMahieu. Sure, he isn't the same two-time batting champ as he was in the past but this price just seems too cheap for the leadoff hitter in the Yankees lineup. I would love to see him cut down on the swing and misses(5 already) but given his 14% career K rate, I see that stabilizing and the good news is that he has hits in both games so far. At these prices, especially on FanDuel, we really just need him to get on a couple of times ahead of Judge, Stanton, and Rizzo.
Also consider: Rafael Devers(BOS) if spending up as his MVP candidacy for 2023 has begun with multiple hits in all three games or Brendan Donovan(STL) who is leading off for a powerful Cardinals offence and has hits in all three games with two home runs
Outfield
Take your pick at the top if you want to spend up in the outfield. On DraftKings, there are 10 outfielders priced $5,500 or higher and eight priced over $4K on FanDuel. My favorite is right at the top with Aaron Judge who has picked up where he left off in 2022. Right behind him would be Mookie Betts who has hits in three straight, gets arguably the best matchup up top, and I love pairing him in a high-priced stack with Freddie Freeman. Let's have a look at some value at the position.
Masataka Yoshida FD 3200 DK 4600
Opponent - PIT (Johan Oviedo) Park - PIT
FD - 12.59 DK - 9.55
Yoshida was signed by the Red Sox out of the Japanese league in the offseason after a terrific year in which he posted a .336/.449/.559 slash line with 21 home runs in 2022. He immediately stepped into the cleanup role in Boston and has delivered multiple hits in two of three games with three RBI and four runs scored. It will be interesting to see if the power comes around in the majors but either way, he is a very good hitter and underpriced to start the season. I will have exposure in all formats.
Jordan Walker FD 2500 DK 2500
Opponent - ATL (Charlie Morton) Park - ATL
FD - 8.27 DK - 6.36
Kyle Lewis FD 2400 DK 2300
Opponent - SD (Ryan Weathers) Park - SD
FD - 8.9 DK - 6.73
While pricing is starting to stabilize on both sites, there is still a ton of opportunity with some young players looking to make their mark on the league. Let's start with Cardinals rookie Jordan Walker who has hits in all three games to start his career and has all the looks of a future star and top-of-the-order mainstay for years to come. Hitting 7th/8th right now, however, means I am probably reserving for GPP only at this time, especially in a tougher matchup against Charlie Morton.
For Lewis, he isn't nearly the prospect of Walker but does check more boxes for fantasy tonight, at least for cash games. He has hit leadoff in all three games to open the season and comes in with hits in two straight. Better yet, is the matchup against lefty Ryan Weathers who struggled to a 7+ ERA between Triple-A and the majors last year and also struggled big-time in spring training, as well. All things considered, Lewis is one of my top PTS/$ punt plays on this slate, provided he remains in the leadoff spot.
