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DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Saturday 4/1/23
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Pitchers
Spencer Strider FD 10800 DK 9700
Opponent - WSH (Josiah Gray) Park - WSH
FD - 40.57 DK - 22.94
With Max Fried getting hurt on Opening Day, the Braves are going to be relying heavily on Spencer Strider to carry the rotation for the time being. Strider finished second behind his teammate Michael Harris in the 2022 Rookie of the Year voting after posting an elite 2.67 ERA and even better 2.30 xFIP which led all starting pitchers(min 100 IP). While he only has two pitches(Fastball, Slider) in his arsenal, they are elite and helped him to a league-leading 38% K rate and 15.5% swinging strike rate. He gets one of, if not the best matchups on the board Saturday against a Nationals team that is projected to be a bottom-three offence this season. Fire up Strider in all formats.
Justin Steele FD 8600 DK 6000
Opponent - MIL (Brandon Woodruff) Park - MIL
FD - 32.74 DK - 16.95
Following a rookie season in 2021 where he split time between the bullpen and rotation, Justin Steele broke into the rotation full-time and was one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball. Over 24 starts, he held opponents to two or fewer earned runs 18 times which led to an impressive 3.18 ERA/3.48 xFIP. While he posted just a slightly above-average K rate(24.6%), he had the 9th-best hard hit rate against(25.7%) and the 2nd-best barrel rate allowed(3.9%). He starts the year off in a good spot against a Brewers lineup that struck out 12 times on Opening Day and was a bottom-10 team against southpaws in 2022. Steele is my favourite value play at starting pitcher today.
Also Consider: Patrick Sandoval(LAA) who is will be looking to build off his best season as a pro(2.91 ERA/3.67 xFIP) and looked good in his final spring training appearance(3 IP, 2 hits, 1 ER, 6 K) and was solid in the World Baseball Classic, especially in the semifinals against Japan(4.1 IP, 4 hits, 0 ER, 6 K)
Catcher/First Base
Matt Olson FD 3700 DK 4700
Opponent - WSH (Josiah Gray) Park - WSH
FD - 12.91 DK - 9.65
Olson had a monster spring training and it carried right over to Opening Day as he went 2 for 5 with a double and a run scored in a 7-2 route of the Nats. His first year in Atlanta saw the average drop a bit but the power numbers remained as he ended with 34 home runs and 103 RBI. We are getting him on the cheap early in the season as the 7th most expensive first baseman and in a plus matchup against Jordan Lyles who is serviceable-at-best and gave up a .365 wOBA and .500 SLG to lefties last season. Fire up Olson in all formats.
Justin Turner FD 2800 DK 3800
Opponent - BAL (Dean Kremer) Park - BAL
FD - 10.9 DK - 8.3
After nine straight seasons with the Dodgers, Justin Turner has moved on to Boston and he seems to be enjoying his surroundings thus far. After hitting .421 in march during spring training, he went 2 for 5 on Opening Day with an RBI and two runs scored while hitting third in the lineup. He seems to be locked into that spot which makes his price, which dropped since opening day, a great value and provides us with a solid PTS/$ floor. I will have exposure in all formats.
Second Base
Jonathan India FD 3300 DK 4900
Opponent - PIT (Rich Hill) Park - PIT
FD - 11.11 DK - 8.49
While the Reds are expected to be a bottom feeder in 2023, this will already be the second time in as many games we are targeting them in our DFS lineups. They drew a good start to the season against one of the teams in the National League who should be battling with them at the bottom. India started the year in the leadoff spot and looked good going 2 for 5 with a double and two runs and is looking to get back to the success he had in his rookie year in 2021. He gets a great matchup on Saturday against the aging Rich Hill who limped out of spring training giving up 12 earned runs in his last two starts. India is my top play at second base on this slate.
Also Consider: Ozzie Albies(ATL) who started the year hitting cleanup for a strong Braves lineup and is coming at a solid mid $4K price tag on DraftKings
Shortstop
Wander Franco FD 3300 DK 4600
Opponent - DET (Spencer Turnbull) Park - DET
FD - 10.03 DK - 7.73
After an injury-riddled season a year ago, the former MLB #1 Prospect will look to lead the Rays to their fifth straight playoff appearance. He has five-tool talent and he got off to a good start on Opening Day with two hits including a solo home run. He will bat second in the lineup and while the matchup is fairly neutral, he is just another player coming in underpriced to start the season which has us buying low in all formats on the elite talent.
Bo Bichette FD 3900 DK 4600
Opponent - STL (Jack Flaherty) Park - STL
FD - 9.42 DK - 7.23
Speaking of underpriced, Bo Bichette could be a sneaky candidate for MVP coming off his second straight season posting 24+ home runs, 90+ RBI, and 90+ runs scored and picked up right where he left off with four hits in the opener. Like Franco, the matchup is neutral against Jack Flaherty but I just can't pass up a mid $4K price tag on DraftKings seeing as he will soon be $5K and likely there for the rest of the season. Hitting 2nd in this elite lineup at these prices, Bo is an elite play in all formats.
Third Base
Rafael Devers FD 3900 DK 5800
Opponent - BAL (Dean Kremer) Park - BAL
FD - 13.27 DK - 10.05
One potential MVP who isn't getting an early season discount is Rafael Devers of the Red Sox. While the homers and RBI dropped off a bit from his incredible 2021 season, it was still a very productive campaign as he hit .295 with 27 home runs and 88 RBI and looking at it from an advanced stat perspective, it was the third time in four season he has recorded a wRC+ of 132 or higher. At the top, it comes down to him or Austin Riley and I lean Devers who was much better against right-handed pitching with an elite .392 wOBA/154 wRC+. Devers is an elite play in all formats.
Spencer Steer FD 2600 DK 3100
Opponent - PIT (Rich Hill) Park - PIT
FD - 9.88 DK - 7.48
Spencer Steer entered the season as one of many "late-round values" in season-long leagues and now that he has made the club could aid us in daily formats, as well. He started the year hitting 7th going 1 for 4 with two walks and showed some pop with that one hit being a home run. He should slowly start moving his way up the lineup and that could be as soon as today as he had plus splits against lefties in the minors and gets a plus matchup against Rich Hill. I will have exposure in all formats.
Outfield
Michael Harris II FD 3800 DK 3700
Opponent - WSH (Josiah Gray) Park - WSH
FD - 11.54 DK - 8.89
Max Kepler FD 2500 DK 3900
Opponent - KC (Jordan Lyles) Park - KC
FD - 11.22 DK - 8.46
TJ Friedl FD 2500 DK 3200
Opponent - PIT (Rich Hill) Park - PIT
FD - 9.83 DK - 7.54
Looking at the elite tier in the outfield, there is no shortage of great spots and I will have exposure Acuna and Buxton the most to correlate with my top teams but I want to provide you some value options to help us tie it all together. These three are my favourite early in the day and it starts with NL Rookie of the Year in Michael Harris who did a little bit of everything in 2022(.297 avg, 19 HR, 64 RBI, 20 SB) and was often a sneaky DFS option hitting down in the lineup. With that likely continuing in 2023 with their loaded lineup, I am only interested on DraftKings at this time.
For Kepler, his value comes from his role starting the season as the Twins' leadoff hitter with Jorge Polanco on the IL. He put up a donut on Opening Day but at these prices and in a plus matchup, I am on board in all formats as a top-value play. Friedl draws his value from a near-identical spot today as he is hitting second for the Reds and gets a terrific matchup against Rich Hill as a career .320 hitter against lefties.
