Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2) brings the ball up court in the first half during an NBA basketball game against the Utah Jazz Wednesday, Oct. 20, 2021, in Salt Lake City. (AP Photo/Rick Bowmer)
It's hard to believe, but we only have two weeks remaining in the regular season. However, this is one of the most challenging times to play DFS because the injury reports are laughably long. It would be one thing if we're dealing with just injuries, but throwing in resting players has DFS looking like a tsunami of chaos. The good news is that we have some information headed into this Sunday slate and will bank on some of that. With that in mind, let's start with one of the most improved players in the NBA.
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Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 38.12 DK - 39.59
Garland has taken his game to another level this season. The young guard is averaging 40 DraftKings points per game, which is a genuinely absurd average for a $7,500 player. It's not like his recent form has killed his salary, with DG posting a 38-point average across his last 14 outings. We expect that to be his floor in this matchup, with the Rockets ranked 28th in defensive efficiency and 29th in points allowed. They're also surrendering the most fantasy points to opposing point guards this season, with Garland dropping 53 DK points in their one matchup. There might not be a better play below $8,000.
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 32.52 DK - 31.95
This Charlotte roster is starting to throw in the towel. They've lost LaMelo Ball, Terry Rozier, and Kelly Oubre to injuries recently, and that should force Smith into the starting lineup. More importantly, he's a stat-stuffing point guard who will be the primary ball-handler for the remainder of the season. This expanded role has led to DSJ scoring at least 28 DraftKings points in 11 of his 14 starts this year while averaging over 32 fantasy points per game in those outings. He's doing that damage despite some poor shooting, but a revenge game against a freefalling Dallas defense should have him on target. The Mavs rank 24th in defensive efficiency and are 29th since acquiring Kyrie Irving.
Marcus Smart (FD $6000 DK $5600) is averaging nearly 30 fantasy points per game and has the best matchup in DFS here.
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 52.08 DK - 51.52
This Portland team is a disaster right now, and we'll dive into their roster a bit later. What's made them so bad is their defense, sitting 27th in defensive efficiency. That's bad news since most of their starters are out, and this breakout guard will destroy whoever's out there. Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 50 DK points per game this season, scoring at least 44 DraftKings points in 21 of his last 22 games. The All-Star is also averaging 52 fantasy points per game in that span and has taken over this Oklahoma City offense. In his three matchups with Portland this year, SGA is averaging 53 DK points per game.
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 31.85 DK - 32.88
Man, it's sad what's happened to this Portland team, but there are some great opportunities for their young players. It looks like Damian Lillard, Anfernee Simons, Jerami Grant, and Jusuf Nurkic will sit for the remainder of the season, making Sharpe one of the primary playmakers on this team. We don't have a large sample size with those guys off the floor, but Sharpe leads the club with a 27 percent usage rate with this current roster. We also saw Shaedon score 35 and 49 DK points in the two most recent outings without those guys, and it's clear he's locked into 20 shots and 35-40 minutes a night. The matchup is the icing on the cake, with OKC owning a 29th OPRK against opposing SGs.
Donovan Mitchell (FD $9500 DK $8500) faces one of the worst defenses in the NBA and is averaging 45 DK points per game over the last month.
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 43.35 DK - 44.77
With Jayson Tatum looking likely to sit here, Brown is probably the best per-dollar play on the board. He's played nearly 20 games without JT since the start of last season and is averaging nearly 50 fantasy points per game in those outings. That's no surprise since he's posting a 34 percent usage rate with Tatum off the floor. There is a chance Tatum suits up, but that doesn't matter because JB has scored at least 41 fantasy points in 10 of his last 11 games. The matchup might be the best part about using Brown, with San Antonio sitting last in both points allowed and defensive efficiency while surrendering the most fantasy points in the NBA.
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 34.73 DK - 34.44
Anunoby doesn't have a massive upside, but he's too reliable to be sitting well below $7,000. What makes him so valuable is his role, playing over 35 minutes a night this season. That's one of the largest workloads in the NBA, and that should be his floor since Scottie Barnes is sidelined. The Barnes injury has put more on OG's plate, averaging 32 DK points per game across his last seven outings. That's right on par with his season average, and we're certainly not worried about Anunoby facing Washington. The Wizards rank 17th in total defense, with OG scoring at least 32 DK points in four of their last five meetings.
Deni Avdija (FD $6600 DK $6600) should see a bump with Beal and Kuzma out and is averaging nearly 35 DK points per game when playing at least 30 minutes this year.
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 55.02 DK - 55
You're going to stumble into some value plays that we haven't even mentioned when more news drops, so paying up for AD is one of the best options on the board. The big man has taken over this offense in the absence of LeBron James, posting a 35 percent usage rate with the superstar off the floor. Davis is also averaging 1.6 DK points per minute in those issuances, posting a 53-point average across his last 12 outings. He's also flashed an 80-point ceiling, and we believe one of those could be in play against a weak defender like Nikola Vucevic.
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 28.69 DK - 29.18
We just discussed how four of Portland's five starters are out right now, with Watford being the last man standing. This breakout forward was already going off when this roster was at full health, with Watford scoring at least 26 fantasy points in six of his last seven games. He's also averaging 31 fantasy points per game in that span, and he could be the focal point of the offense going forward with so many key players out. We actually saw Trendon do this in the final month of last season, too, averaging 34 DK points per game across his last 14 outings of the 2021 season. It's not like OKC is a scary matchup either, with the Thunder ranked 20th in total defense.
Pascal Siakam (FD $9600 DK $9400) has been playing PG for Toronto, scoring at least 53 DK points in three of his last five games.
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 51.46 DK - 53
The workload for Porzingis concerns us a bit, but if he plays the 30 minutes we've become accustomed to, KP should go postal in this spot. Washington is expected to be without Bradley Beal, Kyle Kuzma, and Monte Morris. With those three off the floor this year, Porzingis has a 37 percent usage rate, averaging 1.6 DK points per minute. Those are some of the best rates you'll see, but it's no surprise since Porzingis is averaging over 45 fantasy points per game since February 1. That's not even far off of his 43-point average got the year, which is awesome since Kristaps collected 51 and 39 DK points in two matchups with Toronto earlier this month.
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 40.47 DK - 40.91
Poeltl was the most underrated trade acquisition at the deadline. The big man has taken over starting center duties for the Raptors, averaging 42 DraftKings points per game in this newfound role. His workload was holding him back in San Antonio but playing 30 minutes a night has made him one of the most valuable centers in DFS behind his elite per-minute rates. He's also scored at least 27 DK points in 15 of 16 games since moving to Canada, dropping 56 DraftKings points against these Wizards just three weeks ago. That's far from surprising since Washington owns a 17th OPRK against opposing centers this year.
Nikola Vucevic (FD $9000 DK $8700) has established a 35-point floor and should see a bump in usage, with DeMar DeRozan possibly sitting.
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