Portland Trail Blazers guard Damian Lillard (0) drives around Utah Jazz guard Raul Neto, left, in the first quarter during an NBA basketball game Wednesday, Nov. 4, 2015, in Salt Lake City. (AP Photo/Rick Bowmer)
Man, this time of the year is wild. The San Antonio Spurs are causing mayhem on every slate, and we have them again here. There's undoubtedly going to be some value from that team, but we have no clue who's even going to suit up! That's just the nature of some of these tanking teams, and it's something we'll have to deal with for the final three weeks. We still have some players in great spots, though, so let's kick things off with one of the best scorers of all time.
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Opponent - UTA
Proj Pts FD - 51.2 DK - 53.65
We're only a few games away from Lillard getting shut down, but he's going to keep balling as long as Portland is alive in the playoff hunt. Despite losing six straight games, Dame is the leading scorer over the last month. He's got at least 42 DraftKings points in 31 straight games, averaging 36.5 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 7.3 assists per game in that span. That's hard to overlook, but it makes Dame impossible to avoid since Portland is expected to be without Jerami Grant and Anfernee Simons.
That means Dame could be looking at 40 minutes, 30 shots, and a 40 percent usage rate against a 24th-ranked Utah defense. If he gets that sort of role, Lillard has to be one of the favorites for the high score on this slate! When he played the Jazz back on January 25, Dame dropped 89 DraftKings points in an absolute masterpiece.
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 29.32 DK - 29.41
I'll always have a soft spot for McConnell because he was a minimum-priced stud in my largest GPP cash ever, and he's always played well when given the playing time and opportunity. That's what we have right now because TJ is locked into a 25-minute ball-handling role with Tyrese Haliburton injured. That's allowed McConnell to score at least 28 DK points in five straight fixtures while generating a 38-point average when he's played at least 24 minutes this season. His stat-stuffing has established those elite rates, and it'll be tough for Indiana to keep him off the floor if Haliburton is sidelined once again.
Kyrie Irving (FD $9600 DK $10000) is averaging over 50 fantasy points per game over the last month and will be tough to avoid if Luka Doncic is out again.
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 44.09 DK - 45.26
Our projections are always on point, but it could be a bit low on Booker here. We say that because Book is going to be asked to do everything for this shorthanded Suns offense. The Kevin Durant trade crippled their depth when they got rid of Cameron Johnson and Mikal Bridges but playing without all three is huge. That doesn't even take into consideration that Deandre Ayton is out as well because Book is flirting with a 40 percent usage rate with this current roster. He's also averaging 1.6 DK points per minute in those circumstances, which would equate to 64 DK points if he plays the 40 minutes we expect. That should be an easier task against this lackluster Lakers defense, ranked third in pace and 21st in points allowed.
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 34.77 DK - 35.11
It's funny that the Lakers wasted this guy on their bench and then got nothing for him because THT was once one of the most coveted youngsters in the NBA. Utah scooped him up after that unsuccessful LA run, and he's looking like the stud everyone was talking about. Horton-Tucker has actually turned into the primary ball-handler with Collin Sexton and Jordan Clarkson both sidelined. That's allowed THT to score at least 27 DraftKings points in 12 of his last 16 games while totaling a 32-point average in that span. He's also got at least 37 fantasy points in four of his last six games and shouldn't have any issues reaching that against this putrid Portland defense. The Trail Blazers rank 27th in defensive efficiency while posting a 23rd OPRK against opposing SGs.
Ochai Agbaji (FD $4700 DK $5000) has been starting for Utah, scoring a career-high 42 DK points in his most recent outing.
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 43.53 DK - 42.74
There's always a point in the season where Jimmy Buckets turns it on, and we're getting there in the stretch run. Jimmy Dreadlocks has scored at least 44 fantasy points in nine of his last 10 games while averaging 49 DK points per game in that span. That's a tantalizing total from an $8,400 player, and it's hard to understand why he remains so affordable on DraftKings. The Knicks have been a stingy defense at times this year, but Butler cooked them up in their last meeting. Jimmy dropped 55 fantasy points against them on March 3, despite playing just 33 minutes.
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 24.06 DK - 24.23
This is a home run swing here because some things need to fall in Avdija's place. The first variable is the Kyle Kuzma injury because that would lock Deni into a 30-minute role if he's out. There's also a chance Kristaps Porzingis or Bradley Beal could be rested in this B2B, and that would make Avdija even more enticing. The young forward had 37 DK points across 34 minutes with Kuzma out on Thursday, and we've seen him perform all year when given a substantial role. Avdija has played at least 28 minutes in 31 games this year, posting a pristine 33-point average in those outings. If you find a $5K player with a 33-point average, you've stumbled into one of the best values on the board!
Kyle Anderson (FD $7500 DK $7000) has been doing a ton of playmaking in Minnesota, averaging 36 DK points per game across his last 13 outings.
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 61.74 DK - 64.5
If you want to fade an MVP candidate against a historically bad defense, good luck! Let's start there because the Spurs sit dead last in both points allowed and defensive efficiency. They're also surrendering the most fantasy points to opposing power forwards, which is scary because half of their roster is expected to sit here. That won't sit well against Giannis, who's averaging 57 fantasy points per game.
The MVP candidate has also scored at least 58 DraftKings points in nine of the last 10 games he's finished and should reach that total through three quarters. That's all he might play in this blowout, but if Antetokounmpo gets a full allotment of minutes, an 80-point game is not out of the realm of possibility.
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 27.75 DK - 26.82
It was difficult to pick a second power forward to recommend, but Tillman has done a terrific job of filling in for Memphis. This frontcourt is extremely shorthanded right now, expected to be without Dillon Brooks, Brandon Clarke, and Steven Adams. That's led to Tillman totaling a 29-point average across 28 minutes a night over his last 14 games played.
That's an absurd average from such an affordable player, and we have to assume he'll be locked into a 30-minute role with how many frontcourt players are sidelined. Facing Houston's horrific defense makes Tillman all the more intriguing, with the Rockets ranked 28th in defensive efficiency and 29th in points allowed.
John Collins (FD $5500 DK $5200) is back to playing 30 minutes a night and should never remain this cheap in that sort of role.
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 40.1 DK - 40.36
Why haven't these sites gotten Poeltl to $8,000? This man has been incredible since putting on a Toronto uniform, scoring at least 27 DK points in 13 of 14 games since that trade. The big man is also averaging 41 DK points per game across 29 minutes a night in that span, which is one of the best per-minute rates in the NBA.
He posted similar rates in San Antonio, but getting 30 minutes in Toronto is what changed things for the big man. Getting to face Indiana is incredible, too, with the Pacers ranked 26th in defensive efficiency and 27th in points allowed. More importantly, they're surrendering the third-most fantasy points to opposing centers, with Poeltl providing 42 DK points in their one matchup this year.
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 23.81 DK - 22.2
This is risky, but Biz has always been a nice fil-in whenever Deandre Ayton has been out. Biyombo usually fills in as the starting center when DA is sidelined, averaging 24 DK points per game in his 10 starts this year. He also had a 35-point average in the nine games he played at least 23 minutes last year, which is awesome since he's averaging 23 minutes as a starter this year.
His biggest asset is the matchup with the Lakers, owning a 26th OPRK against opposing centers. Biz is one of the riskiest options out there, but not many guys have a legitimate 10X upside like Biyombo does in this spot.
Kelly Olynyk (FD $6600 DK $6700) fell just shy of a triple-double in Utah's most recent game and is averaging over 30 DK points per game since they traded away Mike Conley and Jaden McDaniels.
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