Chicago Bulls forward DeMar DeRozan against the Golden State Warriors during an NBA basketball game in San Francisco, Friday, Nov. 12, 2021. (AP Photo/Jeff Chiu)
Man, if you can't adapt to chaos, this is not the time for you to play DFS. NBA DFS is always a challenging endeavour, but it becomes even more difficult at this time of the year. We have players rested every single night, and it becomes more problematic since every injury report is full as well. We're going to try our best to avoid DNPs, but that's unfortunately, going to happen at this time of the year. With that in mind, let's get started with two guards who are benefiting because of some absences.
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Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 36.17 DK - 37.63
The Russell trade looked like a win for the Lakers at the deadline, but it looks even better now. The former All-Star has scored at least 36 DK points in all three games since joining LA, posting a 44-point average in that span. That's the best stretch this guy has had all year, but it's clear the Lakers want him to run the offense. What really adds to his value here is the fact that LeBron James and Anthony Davis are expected to miss this game. That means D-Lo could play 40 minutes and take 20-plus shots while handling the ball on every possession. The matchup is the icing on the cake, with the Rockets ranked 28th in points allowed and 29th in defensive efficiency. Not to mention, they're surrendering the most fantasy points to opposing PGs, with Russell scoring at least 35 DK points in six of their last seven meetings.
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 24.2 DK - 25.27
It's funny that we have Graham in here because he looked to be out of the league at the beginning of the season. Silly season will do that because Graham has stumbled into a prominent role with the Spurs. He's actually one of the only playmakers left on this roster, with Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell, Tre Jones, Malaki Branham, and Jeremy Sochan all on the injury report. This tanking team will surely rest some of those guys, which should leave Graham to do everything. That's been the case recently, with DG scoring at least 32 fantasy points in four of his last five games. That would be plenty from a $6K player, but it would be his floor if most of those guys sit here.
Kyle Lowry (FD $4900 DK $4500) played 36 minutes in his first game back and would be a great value below $5,000 if he plays 30-plus minutes again.
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 32.39 DK - 34.23
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 34.11 DK - 35.25
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 38.41 DK - 40.7
This is a unique situation. We've never had two shooting guards on the same team as write-ups, let alone three. In any case, the Mavericks are extremely shorthanded right now, and these three guys should start at the point guard, shooting guard, and small forward. Dallas is expected to be without Kyrie Irving, Luka Doncic, and Christian Wood, which is about all of the team's usage out of the lineup. That means these three guys need to step into more prominent roles, which is exactly what they've been doing recently.
Let's start with the player who should see the highest usage because THJ is the best player remaining on the roster. With those two studs off the floor, Hardaway has a team-leading 27 percent usage rate. More importantly, he's in line for 20 shots and 40 minutes along with these other two guys. That's actually exactly what Hardy has been doing over the last two games, playing 39 minutes a night while taking 23 shots a game. The massive role has led to him posting a 39-point average in that stretch, but Green has been the best player of the three. Green has 39 and 41 DK points in the last two games, and he's the most reliable of the bunch since he was locked into a 30-minute role before the injuries. You can't use all three of these guys, but a combination of the two should suffice. The matchup with the Spurs is sensational too, with San Antonio sitting last in both points allowed and defensive efficiency.
Caris LeVert (FD $6100 DK $4900) got a start on Tuesday and is averaging over 30 DK points per game in a starting role. If someone is rested, don't forget about LeVert.
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 41.86 DK - 42.01
This All-Star has been struggling a bit over recent weeks, but DeRozan should never be this far below $9,000. The midrange king is averaging 41 DraftKings points per game this year, scoring at least 25 fantasy points in 58 of 61 games. That floor and average should be easy to reach against Sacramento, sitting 26th in defensive efficiency and 28th in points allowed. They're also surrendering the third-most fantasy points to opposing small forwards, with DD scoring at least 38 DK points in four of his last five meetings with the Kings. DeRozan is starting to crack his slump, too, scoring at least 42 DK points in three of his last four fixtures.
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 35.38 DK - 34.38
This guy does not get enough respect. Anderson looks like an unathletic plotter out there among these elite athletes, but he's one of the best all-around players whenever he's on the floor. He's been especially good since Karl-Anthony Towns got injured, stepping in as a starter and posting a 33-point average in this expanded role. He's taken on more ball-handling duties since D'Angelo Russell got traded, scoring at least 43 DK points in three of his last four games. The stat-stuffing is what's established such a lovely floor, and it doesn't really matter who Anderson plays against with his style of play. In his two most recent matchups with Boston, KA has 31 and 38 DK points.
Kawhi Leonard (FD $9900 DK $9000) is averaging nearly 50 DK points per game over the last month and should wallop a 26th-ranked Warriors defense.
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 44.27 DK - 45.21
I might be outlandish here, but I truly believe Mobley is going to be one of the best all-around players in the NBA for the next decade. He's already set some grounds on his potential, averaging 40 DraftKings points per game across his last 25 outings. He's also provided 50 fantasy points in numerous of those, and we expect one of those in this game. We say that because Jarrett Allen is expected to sit again, guaranteeing Mobley more minutes, rebounds, and usage. Philly is one of the toughest matchups in the NBA, but Cleveland will need Mobley to play 40 minutes to oppose Joel Embiid. In addition, Evan has at least 32 DK points in both of his matchups with the Sixers this season.
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 32.14 DK - 32.68
There's a small chance Collins will be rested here, but it's going to be tough for the Spurs to do that. The reason Collins has been so good is that they made him their starting center after trading away Jakob Poeltl. That already thinned out the frontcourt, but losing Charles Bassey to an injury on Tuesday should force Collins play in this B2B. That's awesome with the way he's been balling out, scoring at least 29 DraftKings points in 11 of 12 games since taking over. He's also generating a 36-point average in that span, dropping 44 and 49 DK points in his two most recent outings. One of those gems was against this struggling Dallas team, with ZC collecting 36 fantasy points just two weeks ago.
Jarred Vanderbilt (FD $5500 DK $5900) could see a bump in minutes and usage with AD and LBJ both expected to sit here.
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 47.38 DK - 49.94
Comparing anyone to Nikola Jokic is dangerous, but Sacramento has gifted Sabonis a similar role. They're running their offense through the big man, leading to a career year for Domas. Sabonis has scored at least 41 DraftKings points in 42 of his last 45 games, averaging 20.1 points, 13 rebounds, and 7.4 assists per game in that span. The big man is amid one of the best stretches in that sensational span, scoring at least 55 fantasy points in three of his last four outings after dropping 71 DK points on Monday. He also recorded a triple-double in his last matchup with Chicago, scoring 51 DK points despite taking just four shots. Don't be surprised to see that shot total quadruple in this spot!
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 28.2 DK - 28.84
Big Al has been frustrating to trust at times this season, but Boston has to lean on him more with Robert Williams out for the next week. The former All-Star averaged over 35 DK points per game when Rob-Will was sidelined last year, and we've seen a similar Horford over recent weeks. Big Al is averaging 34 DK points per game across 33 minutes a night over his last six outings. That's amazing for such an affordable player, and we've seen Horford play at a $7K level in the past. A matchup with Minnesota should make that easy, with the T'Wolves ranked fifth in pace while posting a 24th OPRK against opposing centers.
Nikola Vucevic (FD $8800 DK $8200) is one of the safest bets for 40 fantasy points and should reach that against one of the worst defenses in the NBA.
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