(AP Photo/Charles Krupa)
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We got what we expected last week at the PLAYERS with water balls, high volatility, withdraws(Rahm smh), and a very wide range of scoring. In the end, it was Scottie Scheffler running away with it on Sunday and picking up his second win of the season.
This week marks the final event of the Florida Swing as the tour heads to Innisbrook Resort and the Copperhead Course for the 2023 Valspar Championship. The overall field strength is similar to last year and expected after a big tournament like the PLAYERS. The field is led by World #9 Justin Thomas who is joined by six others(Fitzpatrick, Burns, Spieth, Keegan, Harman, Fleetwood) ranked inside the Top 25 in the Official World Golf Rankings.
While not quite as tough of test as TPC Sawgrass last week, the Copperhead course plays similar in that it's a positional course with danger lurking on almost every hole. While you would think we would see similar volatility and less weight on course history, that has not been the case as Sam Burns returns as back-to-back champion which followed Paul Casey who won here in back-to-back seasons. My stats model this week will be similar to last in that Strokes Gained: Approach is at the top and once again golfers can gain a ton of strokes on the field on the Par 5's putting Par 5 Scoring and Par 5 Birdie or Better right a close second. When looking at par 4 scoring using the Fantasy National tools, I will also look at performance in the 400-450 yard range as five of the nine fall into that range. I will then combine that stats model with my course history and current form model.
With that, let's take a look at the course, info, and previous winners, and then dive into the picks!
Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead Course)
Par 71 - 7,340 Yards
Greens - Bermuda
**Click the image above to see a hole-by-hole flyover on YouTube**
Sam Burns
World Golf Ranking (#15)
Vegas Odds (16/1)
DraftKings ($10,200)
FanDuel ($)
Hard not to begin with the back-to-back reigning champion when talking course history. On top of those two wins where he dominated with the irons and putter, Burns has also picked up a T30(2020) and T12(2019) here at Innisbrook and is 1st in SG: Total, SG: Putting and DraftKings scoring here, as well. After opening the season with five straight made cuts with two Top 10's, Burns went backwards a bit missing two straight at the Genesis Invitational and Arnold Palmer Invitational. The good news is that rebounded last week at the Players with a T35 highlighted by his putter as he gained over three strokes on the greens. If his iron play gets back in form to go along with the red-hot putter, Burns could have a shot at three straight here.
Adam Hadwin
World Golf Ranking (#61)
Vegas Odds (25/1)
DraftKings ($9,200)
FanDuel ($)
With my second course history pick, I am going with another former winner(2018) in Adam Hadwin. Overall, his course history has been a roller coaster ride here as he has missed the cut more than made it but the good news is that win and three Top 12 finishes have come in his last five trips including a T7 last year. After his first missed cut of the season at the Arnold Palmer, he bounced back at the Players with a T13 while ranking 5th in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green. To cap it off, he also checks the stats box ranking 13th in SG: Approach, 17th in SG: Putting, 21st and 23rd in Driving Accuracy and Good Drive %, 8th in Bogey Avoidance, and 31st in BoB%. All things considered, Hadwin is in play for me in all formats.
Justin Suh
World Golf Ranking (#77)
Vegas Odds (35/1)
DraftKings ($8,900)
FanDuel ($)
Suh has been one of the hottest golfers on Tour during the Florida Swing with a T6 at the Players Championship, T24 at the Arnold Palmer, and T5 at the Honda Classic. That also makes 11 straight cuts made since a stretch of three missed cuts to open the season and while the CJ Cup is no-cut event, he closed with a 67/69/69 so I will give him the benefit of the doubt. Suh also comes into this week 7th in my short-term stats model ranking 4th in Good Drive %, 6th in SG: Approach, 2nd in Prox from 200+ Yards, 9th in BoB%, and 8th in DraftKings scoring. Fire up Suh in all formats.
Ben Griffin
World Golf Ranking (#75)
Vegas Odds (45/1)
DraftKings ($8,400)
FanDuel ($)
Hard not to cheer for Ben Griffin who has made the most of his second chance to play professional golf at highest level. After a sponsor exception got him back into Q school and through the KFT, Griffin has made 12 of 14 cuts on the PGA Tour this season and sits 35th in the FedEx Cup standings after a T35 at the Players last week. He has been elite around and on the greens lately and has show a well-round, complete game which will be needed again this week at the Copperhead course so I can see the strong run continuing. I will have exposure in all formats.
Wyndham Clark
World Golf Ranking (#109)
Vegas Odds (33/1)
DraftKings ($8,800)
FanDuel ($)
With Justin Thomas struggling and likely chalk with Sam Burns and Jordan Spieth, I love a balanced build this week and Wyndham Clark checks almost every box. Since missing back-to-back cuts to start the season(Sanderson/Shriners), Clark has been on a roll making 10 straight including two Top 10's(WMPO, RSM Classic) and six finishes inside the Top 30. Most recently that success has been driven by a very strong iron game as he has gained 3+ strokes on approach in four of his last five events including a career-high 6.8 gained at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Overall, he is #1 in my short-term model(via FNGC) ranking 2nd in SG: Approach, 4th in Par 5 scoring, 1st in opportunities gained, and 3rd in DraftKings scoring. Fire up Clark in all formats.
Dylan Wu
World Golf Ranking (#369)
Vegas Odds (200/1)
DraftKings ($6,800)
FanDuel ($)
We have spent the majority of the article in the high mid-tier and top tier of pricing so let's close it out with some value. Despite the weaker field, there is definitely more than enough value to play out a stars and scrubs build and Wu is a player who jumps off the page and is one of just three players under $7,500 to rank Top 20 in my overall model this week. Looking at the stats model on the sheet, he ranks 17th in SG: Ball Striking, 5th in Proximity, 3rd in Good Drive %, 27th and 35th in Prox from 175-200 and 200+ yards, and for you cash game players, he is 15th in scoring average before the cut. At a price tag under $7K on DraftKings, Wu is my top PTS/$ value play this week.
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