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FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Sunday, 3/5/23
We always love the NBA but man, is this season getting exciting! We have 10 teams within 5.5 games of one another in the Western Conference, and those clubs could finish anywhere between fourth and 13th. That's hard to believe with fewer than 20 games remaining, and it means anything can happen over these closing six weeks. With that in mind, let's start with a point guard for one of those battling teams!
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Point Guard
Jordan Clarkson FD - $6900 DK - $7300
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 33.68 DK - 35.66
Clarkson can be a frustrating player to watch at times, but this guy deserves some credit for what he's done this year. JC has been considered a volatile bench scorer throughout his career, but he's done a wonderful job as Utah's starting point guard. Clarkson is averaging 34 DraftKings points per game this season, setting career highs across the board. What makes him so intriguing here is the fact that Utah is so shorthanded, trading away Mike Conley at the deadline and losing Lauri Markkanen and Collin Sexton to injuries. That means JC could be looking at 35 minutes, 20 shots, and a usage rate north of 30 percent! It's not like the Thunder are a terrifying matchup, with Clarkson collecting 37 DK points in their one matchup.
Tyus Jones FD - $6000 DK - $3100
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 33.11 DK - 33.39
Ja Morant can't seem to go in public without waving a gun around, so, he's going to be suspended for the next two games. Anytime Morant is sidelined, Jones is always one of the best streamers out there. Tyus always starts at PG when Morant is sidelined, scoring at least 34 DraftKings points in eight of the nine starts he's made this year. That's no surprise since Jones averaged 30 DK points per game in 23 starts last year. That makes this DraftKings price laughable, especially since Memphis is missing Steven Adams, Dillon Brooks, and Brandon Clarke as well. The Clippers sound like a scary matchup on the surface, but they have a bottom-five defense since the All-Star break.
Dennis Schröder (FD $6800 DK $5900) has taken over ball-handling duties in the absence of LeBron James, averaging 34 DK points per game since LBJ went down.
Shooting Guard
Terry Rozier FD - $8100 DK - $8000
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 38.93 DK - 40.26
Scary Terry is tough to trust when this roster is at full health, but he's difficult to avoid with LaMelo Ball out for the remainder of the season. With Ball off the floor this year, Rozier has a 32 percent usage rate while averaging 1.1 DK points per minute. He's also played 18 games without the superstar point guard, averaging nearly 40 DraftKings points per game in those outings. The boost in usage is far from shocking since Rozier is seeing a massive increase in minutes, shot attempts, assists, and usage. Brooklyn is a quality matchup for Scary Terry, too, averaging 36 fantasy points per game in their three matchups this year.
Buddy Hield FD - $6500 DK - $6000
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 33.91 DK - 35.77
Hield has been in a horrid slump over the last few weeks, but a masterpiece on Thursday is hopefully a sign of things to come. Buddy tallied 27 points, four rebounds, four assists, and three steals en route to 44 DK points in that masterclass and is now averaging over 30 DK points per game for the season. That makes him a good value in this $6K price range because Buddy has scored at least 34 fantasy points in half of his games this year. One of those should be easy to reach against Chicago, surrendering the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing wings. That's on full display when you see that Hield has at least 35 DK points in all three of their meetings this year, averaging 40 fantasy points per game against them.
Desmond Bane (FD $8000 DK $7600) should be the focal point of the Grizzlies offense with Morant, Brooks, and Adams all out.
Small Forward
Gordon Hayward FD - $6700 DK - $6600
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 29.73 DK - 30.34
Most of these Hornets players have seen a price bump without Ball, but Hayward hasn't been bumped enough. This former All-Star has been rolling even before Ball got injured, scoring at least 27 DraftKings points in eight straight games. He's also flirting with a 40-point average in that span and is going to see a massive boost in usage with Ball out for the remaining six weeks. While Brooklyn does have a bunch of talented wing defenders, they've been one of the worst defenses in the NBA since making all of those big trades. That also means we could be looking at a close game, and that should guarantee Hayward the 35 minutes we need from him.
Cameron Johnson FD - $6000 DK - $5600
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 31.78 DK - 32.49
Everyone thinks about Mikal Bridges in terms of the Kevin Durant trade, but Johnson has seen one of the biggest bumps of any player in that deal. The sharpshooter has taken at least 15 shots in three of the last four games and looks locked into a 35-minute, 20-shot role with the Nets. That means he should be closer to $7,000 on both sites, particularly since CJ has at least 33 fantasy points in four straight fixtures. That total should be a sinch to reach against Charlotte, surrendering the most fantasy points to opposing small forwards. They also rank 26th in total defense, with Cam compiling 35 DK points across just 17 minutes in their one matchup this year. He just returned from an injury in that blowout and he should double those 17 minutes here.
Jeremy Sochan (FD $6500 DK $5700) has at least 29 DK points in four straight games, generating a 35-point average in that span.
Power Forward
Anthony Davis FD - $11500 DK - $10600
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 55.78 DK - 55.88
It's going to be tough to fade Davis as long as LeBron James remains out. The ceiling is a bit limited when LeBron is in the lineup, but AD has a legitimate 80-point upside when the superstar is sidelined. With LeBron off the floor this year, Davis has a 34 percent usage rate while averaging 1.6 DK points per minute. That's evident in his recent form, scoring at least 51 DraftKings points in five of his last six games. That should be his floor as long as James is out, and it's not like Golden State has anyone who can cover him. The Warriors rank 23rd in points allowed, and they're not going to slow down AD with the 35 minutes and 20-25 shots he's going to get in this game.
Zach Collins FD - $7200 DK - $6700
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 37.67 DK - 40.09
Collins was a massive pick-up of mine in my season-long leagues because he was one of the biggest beneficiaries at the trade deadline. The Spurs shipped Jakob Poeltl to Toronto and rewarded ZC with their starting center job. That's allowed Collins to score at least 29 DraftKings points in eight of his nine starts, amassing a 36-point average in that span. That's quite the total from a $7,000 player, but it's less shocking since Collins had been providing an elite per-minute rate throughout his career. That should be easy to duplicate against Houston, with the Rockets ranked 28th in points allowed and 29th in defensive efficiency. That was clear when Collins dropped 39 DK points against them on Saturday. The Spurs injury report makes Collins even more enticing, possibly missing Malaki Branham, Devin Vassell, Keldon Johnson, and Doug McDermott in this game.
Keita Bates-Diop (FD $5300 DK $5200) gets all the same benefits as Collins, playing 32 minutes a night over the last two weeks.
Center
Alperen Sengün FD - $7500 DK - $7500
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 37.68 DK - 37.72
It's hard to understand why Houston continues to mess with Sengun's minutes, but this is one of the best young centers in the NBA. The 21-year-old Turk is averaging over 34 DraftKings points per game this season and has flashed a 50-point upside on numerous occasions. He's been in a bit of a slump recently, but he just scored 37 fantasy points against the Spurs on Saturday. San Antonio is the best matchup in DFS, ranked dead-last in both points allowed and defensive efficiency. They're also surrendering the third-most fantasy points to opposing big men, with Alp scoring at least 30 fantasy points in all three of their meetings this year, despite playing just 26 minutes a night.
Kelly Olynyk FD - $5800 DK - $5800
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 31.64 DK - 32.2
Olynyk has been one of the sneakiest signings this season. The big man is averaging over 26 DraftKings points per game and would have his average closer to 30 DK points if he didn't deal with so many injuries. He's been even better since the break, posting a 32-point average across his last eight outings. The bump in production correlates with the Jarred Vanderbilt and Conley trades, but Oly could see even more usage here with Markkanen and Sexton out as well. That's all you can ask for from a sub-$6K player, and the matchup with Oklahoma City is outstanding. The Thunder own a 23rd OPRK against opposing centers, with Oly scoring at least 28 DK points in their two matchups this year.
Mark Williams (FD $6500 DK $6300) is averaging nearly 35 fantasy points per game since taking over as the starting center in the absence of Mason Plumlee.
