Chicago Bulls guard Zach LaVine brings the ball up court against the Golden State Warriors during the second half of an NBA basketball game, Monday, Oct. 29, 2018, in Chicago. (AP Photo/Kamil Krzaczynski)
Coming up on the All-Star break, this used to be the halfway point, but we're nearly three-quarters of the way through the year. That means the All-Star break is a week to prepare for the final stretch run because anything can happen over the closing two months.
It'll be really fun to see how Kevin Durant looks in a Phoenix uniform, and it feels like there are 10 teams in the running for a title. That's all we can hope for as NBA fans, and it'll be fun to see how everything plays out!
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Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 51.35 DK - 51.27
Ball's season was derailed by injuries early in the year, but this stud point guard is rolling right now. LaMelo has scored at least 52 DraftKings points in five of his last six games, flirting with triple-double averages in that span. That's the stud we've been waiting to see, and Charlotte clearly wants him to be the showman for their offense. That's sensational in a matchup with the Spurs, who sit dead-last in points allowed and defensive efficiency while surrendering the most fantasy points in the NBA. They're simply the best matchup in DFS right now, with many of their stud opponents dropping 50-plus fantasy points on them on a nightly basis.
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 33.03 DK - 32.86
Injuries have obliterated this Boston roster. They're expected to be without Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and Marcus Smart in this game and could be missing Robert Williams and Derrick White as well. Williams played just 12 minutes in the front end of a B2B while White stayed in Milwaukee to examine his ear. If all of those guys are out, Brogdon should start and do everything for this offense.
That's scary because Brogdon is averaging 27 DraftKings points per game in a limited bench role. If he gets the 35 minutes, 15-20 shots, and 30 percent usage rate we expect, this efficiency monster should be an $8K player. The matchup with Detroit is the icing on the cake, ranked 29th in both points allowed and defensive efficiency ratings.
Trae Young (FD $9800 DK $9600) has always crushed the Knicks throughout his career and comes into this matchup with a 50-point average across the last two weeks.
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 43.7 DK - 44.42
LaVine really struggled through the first two months of the season, but the Slam Dunk Contest winner has been crushing recently. The Bulls guard is averaging 26.1 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 3.8 assists across his last 23 games played. What makes him enticing here is the fact that DeMar DeRozan is expected to miss this game.
LaVine has a 32 percent usage rate with DeRozan off the floor this year while averaging 1.2 DK points per minute. That's evident when you see that LaVine has a 44-point average in the four games DeRozan has missed. We certainly don't expect Indiana to slow him down, posting a 30th OPRK against opposing wings this year.
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 39.47 DK - 40.06
It's nice that Sexton is shooting guard eligible because this guy has taken over starting point guard duties in Utah. The Mike Conley trade is what opened up this opportunity, guaranteeing Sexton 30-35 minutes and 10-15 shots a night. We've seen Sexton play at a $7K level in this sort of role in the past, generating a 36-point average in the four games since that trade. That makes it hard to understand why Sexton is still a sub-$6K player, especially since he's being asked to be the primary ball-handler for this team. Memphis is not a scary matchup either, owning a 17th OPRK against opposing guards this year.
Derrick White (FD $7000 DK $7000) is averaging over 40 DraftKings points per game across his last 11 outings and should do everything for Boston with JB, JT, and Smart all expected to sit. There is a chance he sits due to an ear issue, but if he's in, this is one of the safest plays out there.
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 39.26 DK - 39.75
With Zion Williamson already ruled out and CJ McCollum questionable, Ingram could be in for a career night from a usage standpoint. He was already running things with Zion out, posting a 34 percent usage rate with Williamson off the floor. That's led to one of the best stretches of his career, scoring at least 35 fantasy points in seven straight outings. He's also totaling a 41-point average in that span, taking nearly 21 shots a night. If he plays 35 minutes and takes 20-plus shots against the Lakers, BI should go wild. Los Angeles ranks third in pace and 27th in total defense, with Ingram averaging nearly 50 fantasy points per game against them in their last five matchups.
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 19.2 DK - 19.35
It's strange that Branham is small forward eligible on both sites. This guy has been starting at point guard when Tre Jones has been out, and it looks even better since Jakob Poeltl was traded and Devin Vassell is also sidelined. That's forced Branham into the most prominent role of his career, playing at least 29 minutes in seven straight games. Those aren't empty minutes either, with Malaki maintaining a 29-point average in that span. That's all you can hope for from a $5K player, and we finally have a San Antonio game that might stay close. We say that because Charlotte sits 28th in points allowed and 24th in defensive efficiency.
Jimmy Butler (FD $9400 DK $8800) is one of the best options of the day with Tyler Herro out for Miami.
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 32.54 DK - 32.18
Collins was one of the biggest beneficiaries at the trade deadline. This guy has always been good when he stays healthy, but that's been an uncommon occurrence throughout his career. In any case, he's healthy now and starting at center since Poeltl was traded to Toronto. In the three games since that trade, Collins has compiled a 36-point average across 30 minutes a night. That's the per-minute rate we've seen all year, with Zach averaging 22.6 DK points across 20.6 minutes a night. That means the 36-point average is sustainable in a 30-minute role, especially since the Spurs are in tank mode with Vassell and Jones both out. Charlotte couldn't be a better matchup either, surrendering the most fantasy points to opposing big men this year.
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 30.27 DK - 29.91
It's wild that we have two former Gonzaga players in the same section, but it's a testament to how well that program has done over the last decade. That's a story for another day because Oly has been one of the Zags best pros ever. The big man is averaging 27 DraftKings points per game since the opener and has been starting at PF for most of the year. An injury derailed his averages for a bit, but we love that Olynyk has at least 39 DK points in two of his last three games. The recent bump is no surprise since Utah parted ways with Conley, Jarred Vanderbilt, and Malik Beasley, guaranteeing Olynyk a full workload. Oly has also had his way with the Grizzlies this year, averaging 34 DK points per game in their three matchups.
P.J. Washington (FD $6900 DK $6100) has at least 33 fantasy points in four straight outings and gets the best matchup in DFS here.
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 65.77 DK - 67.07
We've found a ton of value on this slate, so let's get the most reliable player in fantasy into our build. That's Jokic, averaging 24.9 points, 11.1 rebounds, and 10.1 assists per game. Those numbers would be amazing for a two-week period, but those are literally his season-long averages. He's been even better recently, scoring at least 55 fantasy points in 14 of his last 15 games en route to a 62-point average in that span. That's hard to even fathom, but we don't expect this weak Dallas frontcourt to slow him down. The Joker is averaging 56 fantasy points per game against the Mavs in their last three matchups.
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 26.54 DK - 25.31
Williams was one of the biggest beneficiaries at the trade deadline, grabbing the starting center job in Charlotte with Mason Plumlee traded to LA. Marky was stuck in a 15-minute role when Plumlee was healthy but was still averaging 17 DK points per game across 14 minutes a night. We expect him to be a 30-minute player in this newfound role, which means that his 17-point average could double as well. Getting 30-35 fantasy points from a sub-$6K player is incredible, and we've seen him score 29 or more DK points in two of his first three starts. Not to mention, San Antonio surrenders the third-most fantasy points to opposing centers while posting the dastardly defensive numbers mentioned in the Ball write-up.
Bam Adebayo (FD $9100 DK $9300) has been the focal point of Miami's offense recently and should see even more touches with Herro out.
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