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FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Sunday, 2/6/23
We're winding down to the All-Star break, and you can sense that some of these players need a break. We've seen a few scuffles over the last week, and the tension is palpable with the trade deadline right around the corner. That does make things fun from a fan perspective, but it can be frustrating to lose players in DFS due to stupid non-basketball decisions. I've been fortunate to avoid that thus far, but chaos is inevitable in NBA DFS.
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Point Guard
Jamal Murray FD - $8300 DK - $8000
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 38.26 DK - 39.64
As someone who has torn their ACL, it's no surprise that it took Murray so long to return to his bubble form. He's looking like Bubble Murray right now though, scoring at least 33 DraftKings points in 11 straight games. He's also got at least 41 DK points in nine of those, generating a 44-point average in that span. That's usually what you see from a $9K player, and it's clear these sites have some price adjustments to do with Murray amid a resurgence.
He's also got at least 48 fantasy points in three straight outings and could reach that again versus a Minnesota team that ranks fifth in pace and 20th in total defense. In their matchup two weeks ago, Murray amassed 41 DK points in another masterpiece!
D'Angelo Russell FD - $7400 DK - $7200
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 33.83 DK - 35.11
Not enough people are talking about how good Russell has been. The former All-Star has seen a bump in minutes, shot attempts, and usage since Karl-Anthony Towns went down, averaging over 35 DK points per game since the big man got injured. He's been even better over recent weeks, scoring at least 36 fantasy points in eight of his last nine games.
D-Lo also dropped a season-high 58 DraftKings points in his most recent outing and could be asked to do everything here with Minnesota possibly missing Kyle Anderson, Jaden McDaniels, Austin Rivers, and Taurean Prince after that scuffle on Friday. It's not like Denver is a daunting matchup either, owning a 25th OPRK against opposing PGs.
Davion Mitchell (FD $3800 DK $3300) has been terrible this season, but he should play 30 minutes as the starting point guard in Sacramento with De'Aaron Fox sitting.
Shooting Guard
Anthony Edwards FD - $9400 DK - $9900
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 42.75 DK - 43.58
We just talked about how shorthanded this Minnesota team could be, and it'll likely be ANT and D-Lo running the show. Edwards has already been doing that, posting a 32 percent usage rate with KAT off the floor this year. He's also providing 1.3 DK points per minute, leading to one of the best stretches of his career. ANT has at least 46 DraftKings points in 11 of his last 13 games, generating a 49-point average in that span.
That's not far off of his 44-point average for the year, and it's not like Denver's 18th-ranked defense will deter us from using a superstar like this. In their two matchups this season, Edwards is averaging over 43 fantasy points per game.
Malik Monk FD - $5500 DK - $5200
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 31.19 DK - 32.57
Man, it scares me to recommend a guy like this, but Sacramento is going to ask this Monk to do a ton of ball handling with Fox expected to miss this game. Monk has proven to be an effective playmaker at times, posting a team-high 30 percent usage rate with Fox off the floor this year. That bump in usage is massive for a volatile player like this, with Monk maintaining a 33-point average across his last three outings.
That's quite the total from a player barely cracking $5,000, primarily since Monk has scored at least 31 DK points 16 times this year. The Pelicans have been a scary matchup for most of the year, but they're allowing 117 points per game across their last 14 outings. In their two most recent matchups, Monk has at least 32 DK points in both of them.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (FD $5300 DK $5000) has at least 27 DK points in three straight outings and remains too cheap around $5K in this tasty matchup.
Small Forward
Brandon Ingram FD - $7600 DK - $7100
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 42.15 DK - 43.47
This Ingram pricing is some of the most egregious on this slate. These sites were discounting him because of his limited workload coming off an injury, but that's clearly over now. BI has played at least 32 minutes in three straight outings, scoring 46 and 49 DraftKings points in his two most recent games.
That's the stud we saw at the beginning of the season, and Ingram was closer to a $9,000 player with that sort of form at the beginning of the year. Missing Zion Williamson only adds to his value, with Ingram posting a 32 percent usage rate with Zion off the floor. Facing Sacramento is sensational, too, with the Kings ranked 21st in total defense. Not to mention, BI is averaging 45 DK points per game in their last four meetings.
Keegan Murray FD - $5200 DK - $5000
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 29.02 DK - 30.17
Rookies will inevitably have rough stretches, but this guy has had more good games than bad ones over the last month. The two most recent games have been a disaster for Murray, but it's hard to overlook his robust role. The talented rookie is playing 35 minutes a night over his last 10 games, posting a 28-point average across his previous eight games before this mini two-game slump.
The Summer League MVP has the ability to be a star, and we're willing to overlook this small slide and ride him at just $5,000. We did talk about how much New Orleans has been struggling recently, and Murray should have plenty of opportunities with Domantas Sabonis swallowing up all of the tough defense.
Herbert Jones (FD $5400 DK $4900) should play 35-40 minutes for this shorthanded Pelicans team and needs to be a $6K player in that sort of role.
Power Forward
Paolo Banchero FD - $7200 DK - $7100
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 37.53 DK - 38.44
Let's keep the rookies rolling with the future 2022 Rookie of the Year. This youngster is running away with that award, averaging 20.3 points, 6.5 rebounds, 3.7 assists, and 1.0 steals per game. That equates to nearly 40 fantasy points per game, which is an absurd total from a $7K player. A slump has lowered his salary a bit, but the fact that he is averaging 33 DK points per game on 31 percent shooting over the last four games is actually an encouraging sign.
It means he's still producing fantasy value and seeing a large enough usage to make him useful at just $7,000. A matchup with Charlotte is the best part of this, though, with the Hornets ranked 27th in defensive efficiency and 28th in points allowed. In their one matchup, Paolo provided 48 DK points across 27 minutes in one of the best performances of his career.
Larry Nance Jr. FD - $4900 DK - $4700
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 22.34 DK - 21.52
Nance has always been an underrated fantasy asset, and it's hard to understand why he remains so affordable. His limited bench role is the one thing keeping his salary low, but with Zion injured and Jonas Valanciunas going down on Saturday, Nance could be locked into a 30-minute starting center job. That's huge because Nance is averaging over 21 DK points per game across 22 minutes a night.
A boost by 20 percent in both of those should make Nance a $6K player, especially since he's averaging 33 DK points per game in the 15 games he's played at least 25 minutes. Those stat-stuffing ways are superb against Sacramento's subpar defense because Nance needs to play 30 minutes to oppose Sabonis.
Xavier Tillman Sr. (FD $4900 DK $4400) has been starting for Steven Adams, scoring at least 26 fantasy points in four of his last six games. Good luck finding that from another sub-$5K player.
Center
Nikola Jokic FD - $11600 DK - $11400
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 59.42 DK - 62.38
Jokic is the two-time reigning MVP for a reason. I once said that it would be impossible for him to win a third straight award unless he averaged a 30-point triple-double this season, but he's not far off that. The big man is averaging 25 points, 11.1 rebounds, and 10.1 assists per game en route to a 59-point average on DraftKings.
He's also got at least 52 DK points in 20 of his last 24 games, establishing one of the highest floors in the history of the NBA. That makes Joker a tough fade on a six-game slate, especially since he faces a 20th-ranked T'Wolves defense. When they played two weeks ago, Jokic finished with 31 points, 11 rebounds, and 13 assists in another MVP performance.
Wendell Carter Jr. FD - $6500 DK - $5800
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 0 DK - 0
We actually have Carter projected to score zero because he sat out on Friday, but it sounds like the big man will be ready to return here. That's awesome since we expect some Orlando players to miss out, with Mo Bamba and Jalen Suggs possibly suspended for this game. It doesn't really matter whether those guys play or not, with WCJ averaging 32 DraftKings points per game as a starter this year.
We've seen him do this for years, making it hard to understand why Carter is sitting around $6,000 on both sites. This matchup makes it even more bizarre, with Charlotte surrendering the most fantasy points to opposing centers. The big man has scored at least 31 DK points in four straight matchups with the Hornets, scoring at least 37 fantasy points in three of those.
Domantas Sabonis (FD $9600 DK $10500) has been flirting with triple-double averages for a month and should see a boost in usage with Fox missing this game.
