Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2) brings the ball up court in the first half during an NBA basketball game against the Utah Jazz Wednesday, Oct. 20, 2021, in Salt Lake City. (AP Photo/Rick Bowmer)
This is always an interesting stretch in the season. We're less than two weeks away from the All-Star game, and this is when some bizarre things happen. Players randomly end up on the injury report, and we're finally about to get some trades. Those factors always cause chaos for DFS, if there isn't enough to worry about already!
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Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 41.81 DK - 42.83
Fox has developed into one of my favorite players this season. He's one of the few guards who's better inside the paint than out of it, and it's scary to think how good this guy can be if he develops a better shot. In any case, Fox is averaging 41 DraftKings points per game, scoring at least 46 fantasy points in four of his last five games.
The recent surge makes him really enticing against San Antonio, sitting dead last in both points allowed and defensive efficiency. They're also allowing the third-most fantasy points to opposing point guards, with Fox averaging 38 DK points per game against them. We expect that to be his floor with the way he's rolling.
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 39.87 DK - 41.5
Russell has been a regular in this section because these DFS sites refuse to raise his price. It's hard to understand why because the lefty is playing some of the best basketball of his career since Karl-Anthony Towns got injured. That's skyrocketed his shot attempts and usage, averaging 35 fantasy points per game since the big man went down.
D-Lo has also scored at least 36 DK points in six of his last seven games, posting a 39-point average in that span. We expect him to build off of that average against Golden State, who rank 26th in points allowed while surrendering the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing guards.
Chris Paul (FD $8300 DK $8300) is doing everything in Phoenix with Devin Booker, and Cameron Payne sidelined and should annihilate a horrible Hawks defense.
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 55.27 DK - 54.46
It's always exciting when we have a Gilgeous-Alexander day! I'm hesitant to use this guy in bad matchups, but he's proven to be a matchup-proof player. That doesn't really matter here because the Rockets rank 28th in defensive efficiency while surrendering the most fantasy points to opposing guards. That's scary against a stud like this, with SGA averaging 50 DraftKings points per game.
He's also scored at least 51 fantasy points in five straight fixtures, generating a 57-point average in that span. That should be easy to reach against this horrid Houston defense, especially since he has at least 40 fantasy points in four straight meetings with the Rockets.
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 28.5 DK - 29.43
This rookie was slow to get going, but watching him take over this offense has been fun. The surge started when Cade Cunningham got injured, but it's really broken through since Killian Hayes was relegated to bench duties. That's led to Ivey scoring at least 24 DraftKings points in 11 of his last 12 games en route to a 31-point average in that span. That's awesome because this kid is scratching the surface of what he could become, and he should only get better with his minutes, usage, and shot attempts all on the rise. Washington is not a worrisome matchup either, owning a 19th OPRK against opposing shooting guards.
Anthony Edwards (FD $9500 DK $9800) has taken over the T'Wolves offense with KAT out, averaging 55 DK points per game across his last six outings.
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 31.87 DK - 32.81
It might take some time, but NBA fans will realize this is one of the best pure shooters in the NBA. Injuries have slowed him down at times, but it looks like CJ is back to a full-time role. He's played at least 32 minutes in two of his last three outings, averaging 27 DraftKings points per game across his last six games.
We expect that to be his floor going forward because the Suns need him to do more with Devin Booker, Cameron Payne, and Landry Shamet all missing. An expanded role is amazing against a team like Atlanta, who rank 23rd in points allowed while surrendering the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing SFs.
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 23.51 DK - 23.8
Williams is unlikely to drop 50 and carry your lineup to a monster GPP cash, but he's one of the best bets out there to reach 6X value. We say that because of his increased role, playing at least 25 minutes in five of his last six games. He's also cracked 30 or more in two of three, and he should be a $6K player in a 30-minute role.
K-Will is averaging 27 DK points per game across his last six outings, stuffing the stat sheet at will. That ability should become much easier against Houston, who allow the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing forwards. If Williams gets 25-30 minutes, he's a lock to crack 5X value and is an excellent bet to get to 6 or 7X.
Kyle Anderson (FD $6300 DK $5600) has been starting for KAT, averaging over 30 DK points per game in this expanded role.
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 39.12 DK - 40.86
Johnson is not getting enough credit for what he's doing in San Antonio. It's easy to understand why, though, because the Spurs look like the worst team in the NBA. In any case, KJ is averaging 34 DraftKings points per game, scoring 42 and 47 DK points in his two most recent outings. He's also scored at least 25 DK points in 40 of the 43 games he's finished, and that sort of floor is no surprise since KJ is playing 35 minutes while taking 20 shots a game.
He's the focal point of this San Antonio offense, and we're not worried about him facing a 26th-ranked Sacramento defense. He had 33 fantasy points in their last matchup, despite shooting just 32 percent from the field on 25 shots. Imagine how that would look on a good shooting night!
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 32.98 DK - 32.02
Clarke has been stuck behind Steven Adams throughout his career, but he's entered the starting lineup since Adams went down with a knee issue. That's big news because BC has been a per-minute stud throughout his career. Clarke is averaging 22 DK points per game across just 19 minutes a night. That's brilliant because Clarke has played at least 28 minutes in two of his three starts, scoring at least 33 fantasy points in both of those.
That's all you can ask for from a $6K player, and we've seen him flash a 43-point ceiling on multiple occasions this season. We also don't mind that Portland allows the third-most fantasy points to opposing centers, which is where Clarke will be playing.
Jabari Smith Jr. (FD $6100 DK $5600) is finally getting going and scored 37 DK points in his last matchup with OKC.
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 46.9 DK - 49.56
We've had a ton of value plays, so let's get some high-end studs at the center spot. Sabonis is actually my favorite play of the day, averaging 47 fantasy points per game. He's been even better as of late, scoring at least 42 DK points in 24 of his last 26 games. Domas is also averaging 19.7 points, 13.7 rebounds, and 7.7 assists per game in that span. Those averages would put a smile on Nikola Jokic's face, and those should be easy to reach against the worst defense in the NBA.
In his last matchup with San Antonio, Sabonis sliced them to the tune of 18 points, 18 rebounds, and eight assists. A 30-point triple-double is in play, and you probably can't say that about any other player below $10,000.
Opponent - UTA
Proj Pts FD - 45.12 DK - 45.96
Siakam is amid a minor slump right now, but it's lowered his price just enough. The reason we're willing to hop back on is this matchup, with Utah surrendering the second-most fantasy points to opposing centers. They also rank seventh in pace, 21st in points allowed, and 24th in defensive efficiency. That's sensational against a stat-stuffer like this, with Sia scoring 47 DK points per game.
He's also scored at least 33 fantasy points in all but two outings this year and should do more with OG Anunoby sidelined as well. Not many people will use Pascal with his mini slide but now's the time to hop on with the expected low ownership in such a tasty matchup.
Jakob Poeltl (FD $6200 DK $5500) has been above $7,000 at times throughout his career and could have success against a 24th-ranked Sacramento defense.
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