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FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Sunday, 1/29/23
It's been an awesome week of basketball, but we're looking at a limited slate here. We only have four games on this Sunday slate, with three making up the main card. We'll key in on those three games, but there are still some great options.
The reason for the short card is that the NBA doesn't want to compete with the NFL for viewership, but we still have you covered for DFS in both sports! With that in mind, let's dive into this NBA Sunday slate!
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Point Guard
Ja Morant FD - $10000 DK - $10200
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 48.86 DK - 50.68
Morant has been one of the best point guards in the NBA this season, and we have to love him in this spot. Memphis has already ruled out Desmond Bane for this game, which should add more usage to Morant's massive plate. With Bane off the floor this season, Morant has a team-leading 36 percent usage rate while averaging over 1.5 DK points per minute. That's an absurd rate, equating to nearly 60 fantasy points if he plays the 35-40 minutes we anticipate. That's not far off of his 49-point average for the year, and we certainly don't mind that he plays a Pacers team that ranks 25th in both points allowed and defensive efficiency.
Darius Garland FD - $8900 DK - $8800
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 47.57 DK - 49.42
It's been fun watching Garland take over this offense in the absence of Donovan Mitchell. He's got a usage rate north of 30 percent with DM off the floor, posting some of his best lines of the season without the All-Star. Not only did DG drop a career-high 69 DraftKings points without Mitchell earlier in the season, but he also has 63 and 53 fantasy points in the last two games without him as well.
He's now played nine games without Mitchell and is averaging about 45 fantasy points per game. That's no surprise with the boost in minutes and shot attempts which is fantastic since Garland gobbled up 19 points and 12 assists in his last meeting with the Clippers.
Shooting Guard
Caris LeVert FD - $5500 DK - $5500
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 29.59 DK - 30.65
Man, this guy killed me on Friday night, but we're going right back to the well. The former Michigan guard missed 11 of his 12 shots but still handed out nine assists across 38 minutes of play. He's being asked to take on a much bigger workload with Mitchell out, and LeVert has been a different player as a starter this year.
Caris has compiled a 19-point average as a reserve but is averaging over 30 fantasy points per game as a starter. We expect that to be the case again here, and as long as he's playing 35 minutes and taking double-digit shots, LeVert should be $1,000 more on both sites despite what he did on Friday.
Terance Mann FD - $4900 DK - $4100
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 21.59 DK - 22
Mann has found himself a starting job in Los Angeles, and his performance on Saturday shows what makes him so special. The versatile winger made just one shot in that game but provided seven rebounds, six assists, and two blocks across 35 minutes of play. We've seen that stat-stuffing a lot recently, with Mann averaging 23 DK points per game across 30 minutes over his last 10 outings. That might not sound like much, but it's all you can ask for from a $4K player.
What adds to his value here is that this is the second half of a back-to-back set. That means guys like Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, and Nicolas Batum could all sit, giving Mann even more opportunities.
Small Forward
Dillon Brooks FD - $5200 DK - $4900
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 28.66 DK - 29.87
Brooks can be an infuriating player to watch at times, but he's still being asked to do a ton for Memphis. The winger is averaging 15,2 shots across 31 minutes a night since the opening week of the season. That's the usage you usually see from a $7K player, and a 26-point average backs it. Getting 25-30 fantasy points is plenty from a $5K player, and that looks like his floor since Bane is expected to miss this game.
In the 17-game stretch that Bane missed earlier in the year, Brooks averaged 19.6 points, 4.0 rebounds, and 3.3 assists en route to 32 fantasy points per game! The matchup is the icing on the cake, with the Pacers allowing the most fantasy points to opposing SFs.
Naji Marshall FD - $5300 DK - $5100
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 19.89 DK - 20.4
It was nearly impossible to find a second small forward that I wanted to recommend, but we're going to take a risk on Marshall. The reason for that is that we believe Brandon Ingram will sit in the second half of a B2B set here. BI was out for nearly two months with a toe issue, and he made his return to action this week.
It's highly unlikely that he will play here after suiting up on Saturday, and Naji was a stud with Ingram and Zion Williamson out earlier in the season. In the 14 games before Ingram's return, Marshall maintained a 28-point average across 32 minutes a night. If he could match that at this $5K salary, Naji would be one of the best values on the slate!
Power Forward
Giannis Antetokounmpo FD - $11600 DK - $11600
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 63.31 DK - 65.96
On a short slate like this, it's impossible to fade a stud like Giannis. The Greek Freak has scored at least 36 fantasy points in 37 of 38 games, generating a 57-point average for the year. That average laps every other forward on this slate, with the next closest active player posting a 42-point average. That happens to be Paul George, who might not even play here! That makes it impossible to fade this guaranteed 50-60 fantasy points, with Giannis dropping 71 DraftKings points in his most recent outing. He's pummelled the Pelicans over recent years, too, scoring at least 59 DK points in five straight matchups with New Orleans en route to a 65-point average.
Jaren Jackson Jr. FD - $7600 DK - $6700
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 40.34 DK - 37.52
Jackson has established himself as the frontrunner for Defensive Player of the Year, and it's scary that he's doing this damage in a somewhat limited role. The big man is averaging over 34 DraftKings points per game but is playing just 26 minutes a night. It's hard to understand why he's being limited, but we have to assume he's in line for 30-35 minutes here with Bane and Steven Adams expected to miss this game. That should also boost his shot attempts and rebounds, which is amazing since his usage has been the only thing holding JJJ back from being a fantasy stud. Indiana is an incredible matchup, too, owning a 23rd OPRK against opposing PFs.
Center
Jarrett Allen FD - $7300 DK - $6500
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 37.84 DK - 38.6
Allen isn't one of the most exciting options in fantasy, but there aren't many better bets out there to reach 5X value. The Fro has scored at least 26 DraftKings points in nine straight games, generating a 36-point average in that span. That alone is an amazing total from a player in this price range, but it's not far off his 33-point average for the year. A matchup with the Clippers is concerning for most players, but their center position is their one major weakness.
Not only do they own a 19th OPRK against opposing centers, but Allen accrued 10 points, 20 rebounds, three assists, two steals, and two blocks in their one matchup earlier this season. That equates to 49 DK points, and that sort of ceiling is sensational from a $7K player.
Brandon Clarke FD - $6000 DK - $5300
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 33.14 DK - 32.09
With Adams ruled out for this game. Clarke should get another start at center. We've been waiting for this per-minute stud to be handed a prominent role for a few years now, and he will be a beast in this expanded opportunity. In the first two starts for Adams, BC has at least 33 fantasy points in both of them.
He's also playing 30 minutes a night, and this sort of production is far from shocking since he's averaging 22 DK points per game in fewer than 20 minutes a night for the season. That rate should hold with the way he dominates the paint, and we love that he faces a Pacers team that's surrendering the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing centers.
