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FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Wednesday, 1/25/23
I'm writing this at the end of this Lakers-Clippers game, and it's crazy just how good these offenses are nowadays. The Clippers are about to shoot 60 percent from the field and 50 percent from three, which is strangely not a rare occurrence in today's basketball. LeBron James also set a career-high with nine threes, and it's just wild watching these offenses go crazy night after night. We're surely going to have some of that here because we have 10 games in action!
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Point Guard
T.J. McConnell FD - $6700 DK - $6000
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 38.87 DK - 38.52
There will always be a sweet spot in my heart for McConnell because he was a key piece to my largest cash ever. That's just what this guy does, though, because he always steps up when Indiana needs him to fill in. He's starting at point guard now that Tyrese Haliburton is injured, scoring at least 36 DraftKings points in six of his last eight games.
McConnell has also maintained a 38-point average in that span, and it's no surprise with the way this guy stuffs the stat sheet. That should be easy to do against Orlando, with the Magic owning a 21st OPRK against opposing guards this season. He actually played 31 minutes off the bench in their last matchup with the Magic, mauling them to the tune of 48 DraftKings points!
Tre Jones FD - $6500 DK - $6200
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 32.05 DK - 31.97
This Spurs team sucks, but they have some decent pieces. Jones is not an exciting point guard, but this guy is too reliable to be sitting around $6,000 on both sites. The former Duke guard has at least 24 DraftKings points in 42 of 46 games this year, scoring at least 29 fantasy points in 11 of his last 14 games.
The recent surge is no surprise since Jones is being asked to do more with Devin Vassell out, averaging 33 fantasy points per game in that span. We expect that total to be easy to reach against the Lakers, ranked third in pace and 26th in points allowed. That's on full display when you see that Tre is averaging 45 DK points per game in their last two matchups.
CJ McCollum (FD $8100 DK $8500) has been running the offense with Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram both out and remains a good value at just $8K.
Shooting Guard
Bradley Beal FD - $8200 DK - $7200
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 39.85 DK - 40.44
This DraftKings price is nuts. Beal is usually closer to $9,000, and it's strange to see him barely cracking $7K. What makes it even more bizarre is the fact that Rui Hachimura was traded, and Kristaps Porzingis is injured. That should boost Beal's minutes, shot attempts, and usage, with Beal averaging 1.4 DK points per minute with those two off the floor. That's an elite rate, and we anticipate Beal's price skyrocketing over the next two weeks.
The matchup against Houston is the best part of this, though, with the Rockets ranked 28th in total defense while surrendering the most fantasy points to opposing guards. Not to mention, BB has scored at least 42 DK points in seven straight meetings with the Rockets, registering a 49-point average in those outings.
Dennis Schröder FD - $6700 DK - $5600
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 25.59 DK - 26.73
Schroder can be tough to trust at times, but this guy has too much upside to be sitting around $6,000. This is still the starting point guard for one of the fastest-paced teams in the NBA, and he's shown flashes of the $8K player we've seen in the past. The German scored 46 and 49 DK points before a stinker on Tuesday, playing at least 31 minutes in 12 of his last 13 games.
As long as he's getting that sort of opportunity, Schroder shouldn't be this cheap against the Spurs. San Antonio sits dead-last in points allowed and defensive efficiency while surrendering the third-most fantasy points to opposing guards.
Anthony Edwards (FD $9200 DK $9500) has been doing everything since Karl-Anthony Towns went down, averaging 51 DK points per game across his last seven outings.
Small Forward
LeBron James FD - $11100 DK - $11700
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 58.95 DK - 60.32
If Tuesday's tantalizing performance doesn't want to make you use LeBron, I don't know what will. The 20-year-vet finished that masterpiece with 46 points, eight rebounds, and seven assists across just 32 minutes. That lower minute total makes him more likely to play in this B2B, especially with how much King James was feeling it on Tuesday.
We've seen him post lines like that for weeks though, averaging nearly 60 DraftKings points per game since Anthony Davis went down. We don't really care about matchups when it comes to a stud like this but facing the worst defense in the NBA makes King James one of the best pay-up options on this slate. In their last matchup, LeBron dropped 64 fantasy points if you needed any more incentive to pick him.
Tari Eason FD - $4700 DK - $4400
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 27.46 DK - 26.98
This is risky, but we have to assume Houston will keep starting Eason as long as Kevin Porter Jr and Jabari Smith remain out. That's led to Eason playing 26 and 27 minutes in his two most recent starts, scoring 36 and 27 DraftKings points in those outings. That's elite production from a sub-$5K player, but it's no surprise since Eason is averaging 20 DK points per game across 19 minutes a night for the year.
This kid is too talented not to provide a fantasy point per minute, and it makes him an amazing value in this expanded role. Washington is not a concerning matchup either, ranked 18th in defensive efficiency.
Kyle Anderson (FD $6200 DK $5800) is averaging over 30 fantasy points per game since entering the starting lineup for KAT, scoring 49 or more DK points in three of his last five outings.
Power Forward
Jaren Jackson Jr. FD - $7900 DK - $7100
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 45.99 DK - 42.87
Man, this could be a huge month for JJJ. This guy has already been one of the best per-minute producers in the NBA, but he could go nuts with Steven Adams going down. That means Jackson has to play and rebound more! Those are two of his only weaknesses, with Jackson averaging 35 DraftKings points per game across 26 minutes a night.
This dude will have to play 30-35 minutes with Adams out, and we truly believe he can be a five-figure player in this sort of role. Facing the Warriors is far from worrying, with Golden State ranked 26th in points allowed. They're also small, and that should be massive for an undersized big man like this.
Keldon Johnson FD - $7100 DK - $7200
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 37.4 DK - 39.13
We knew KJ would be a good player when Pop randomly stuck him on the Olympic roster, and he's finally showing why Popovich made that bold move. Johnson has been the focal point of the offense since Vassell went down, leading the team with a 31 percent usage rate with him off the floor. That has led to KJ scoring at least 27 DraftKings points in 24 of the last 26 games he's finished, posting a 36-point average in those 24 games.
That's not far off of his 34-point average for the year, and this guy should continue to play 35 minutes while taking 20 shots a night. That opportunity would make him tough to fade against a 28th-ranked Lakers defense, with Johnson averaging 41 DK points per game against them in their last two matchups.
Brandon Clarke (FD $4900 DK $4400) could start at center with Steven Adams out, and any boost in playing time would be massive for this per-minute stud.
Center
Wendell Carter Jr. FD - $6700 DK - $6400
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 31.45 DK - 32.37
Carter has been sitting below $7,000 all season, and it's hard to understand why. This is one of the most underrated big men in the NBA, scoring at least 29 DraftKings points in 20 of his 25 starts this year. A strange bench stretch coming off an injury hurt his averages, but WCJ is generating a 34-point average as a starter this year.
That's all you can ask for from a sub-$7K player, especially since he has at least 40 fantasy points in three of his last six outings. Indiana is an incredible matchup, too, with the Pacers owning a 25th OPRK against opposing centers while ranked second in pace and 24th in defensive efficiency. In their three matchups last year, Carter averaged 17.7 points and 16 rebounds per game!
Clint Capela FD - $6500 DK - $5700
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 36.17 DK - 36.53
It's tough to trust these Atlanta centers when both guys are healthy, but we want to pick either when one of them is sidelined. It looks like Onyeka Okongwu will sit here, which means Capela should be in for all of the center minutes he can handle. That was the case on Monday, with Cap collecting 41 DK points across 36 minutes. That's no surprise when digging into his per-minute averages, averaging 31 DK points per game across 26 minutes for the year.
That rate will carry over with the way this monster rebounds, and he should feast on the glass against OKC. The Thunder allow the third-most fantasy points to opposing centers, with CC compiling 14 points and 16 rebounds in their one matchup earlier in the year.
Daniel Gafford (FD $5800 DK $4700) should start at center and play 30 minutes with Porzingis injured and Hachimura getting traded. This guy has a 40-point upside in that sort of role if he can stay out of foul trouble.
