(AP Photo/Steve Helber)
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Stadium Course
Par 72 - 7,113 Yards
Greens - Bermuda
Nicklaus Tournament Course
Par 72 - 7,159 Yards
Greens - Bermuda
La Quinta Country Club
Par 72 - 7,060 Yards
Greens - Bermuda
Welcome to multi-course rotation and pro-am season golf fans. That's right, the PGA Tour heads to La Quinta, California for The American Express this week where there will be three courses used to accommodate the pro-ams in the field. Each player in the field will play one round on each course from Thursday through Saturday with the cut of Top 65 and ties happening after round 3 is complete. Those players will then play the final round on the Stadium Course on Sunday.
The field for the American Express is stacked this year with five of the Top 7 and 10 of the Top 20 players in the OWGR teeing it up in Cali. Making that even more interesting is the fact almost every one of those players has good event history here.
Looking at the courses, all three are Par 72's that come in under 7,200 yards and have been on the easier side in terms of average scoring which makes sense with the presence of amateurs. That means a lot of birdies for the pros and the reason we have seen a winning score in the -20's each year going back to 2016 when these three courses became the staple here. When researching and looking at stats, keep in mind that there is only Shotlink data on the Stadium Course.
This makes it somewhat challenging when trying to put together a model so for these types of events I keep the model pretty simple. I am always high on ball striking and this week more on the approach side of things. For cash games, I want players who are more consistent putting and for GPP's I like looking for players who can put together spike weeks putting. The Stadium Course is also a classic Pete Dye design so I will also be looking at some trends in that area, as well.
With all that said, let's dig in and take a look at a couple of players who stand out in key areas in my overall model this week.
Scottie Scheffler
World Golf Ranking (#2)
Vegas Odds (12/1)
Draftkings ($10,500)
FanDuel ($11,800)
Scheffler is one of only a few players who check all the boxes this week but it's the form I want to talk about the most. We mentioned him on the preview show for the Tournament of Champions being a nice leverage play as a spike round of putting could aid him to a top finish. While it wasn't the win I was hoping for, it was his third straight Top 10 and fifth in his last six events going back to the BMW Championship in the playoffs. All that while ranking outside of 110th in this field in putting so it was great to see him find the flat stick and gain strokes in three of four rounds at the Plantation Course. Where he has excelled is pretty much everywhere else ranking 7th in Strokes Gained: tee to Green over that stretch and 2nd over the last 24 rounds. He finished T25 here last year and also has a Top 5 finish in 2020. Scheffler is my top pay up this week.
David Lipsky
World Golf Ranking (#148)
Vegas Odds (100/1)
Draftkings ($7,300)
FanDuel ($9,000)
There are definitely players who are higher in my form and overall model but I wanted to gear down to the value range and find a player that helps us build around Scheffler or any other top-tier player. Enter David Lipsky who is coming off a terrific T4 at the Sony Open where he shot in the 60's in all four rounds including three rounds of 66 or better. Take out the WD at the RSM Classic in November and Lipsky has made the cut in five straight with two Top 10's and ranks 5th in this field in SG: Tee to Green over the last 12 rounds. I will have exposure to Lipsky in all formats.
Also Consider: Thomas Detry who has made the cut in all five events this season including four Top 25's and two Top 10 finishes or Ben Taylor who has tallied three straight Top 25 finishes including a T4 last week at the Sony Open
Brian Harman
World Golf Ranking (#23)
Vegas Odds (33/1)
Draftkings ($9,300)
FanDuel ($10,300)
We were on Harman in the form section last week and while he lost nearly two strokes on approach, he did manage to make the cut and finish halfway up the leaderboard on Sunday with a T32. The form continues to be consistent with 10 straight cuts made(4 Top 10's & 8 Top 25's) and I see it continuing this week at an event he has great history at in the past. Going back to 2016 when the Pete Dye Stadium Course took over as host, Harman has tallied Top 25 finishes in six of seven trips including back-to-back Top 10's in 2022 and 2021. I am back on Harman in all formats this week.
Adam Hadwin
World Golf Ranking (#78)
Vegas Odds (66/1)
Draftkings ($8,200)
FanDuel ($9,800)
The results(T25, T32) over his last two starts here don't jump off the page but Hadwin still sits near the top of my course history model this week. He is not only 4th in average finish among players with multiple starts at this event, he also leads this field in Strokes Gained: Total and DraftKings scoring over the last 24 rounds at the Stadium Course. More good news as he is coming off a T7 at the Houston Open gaining 7.6 strokes on approach and if you are looking for consistency, he has made the cut in nine straight events with Top 10's in two of his last four. Fire up Hadwin in all formats and possibly consider a Top 10 or outright bet this week.
Also Consider: Si Woo Kim who is coming off a win, won here in 2021 and also finished T11 last year or Andrew Putnam who has made the cut here in five straight and comes in with three straight Top 25 finishes here
Tom Hoge
World Golf Ranking (#30)
Vegas Odds (40/1)
Draftkings ($8,400)
FanDuel ($10,200)
I talked about how I keep my stats model pretty simple at these multi-course events and the majority of it rests on ball striking with emphasis on iron game, par 4 scoring, opportunities gained and of course birdie making. Enter Tom Hoge who stands out in a big way in every area ranking 3rd in SG: Ball Striking, 1st in SG: Approach, 2nd in Par 4 Scoring, 2nd in Opp Gained, and 10th in Birdie or Better over the last 24 rounds. He now returns to the American Express where he has had some up and down results over the long term but has finished 6th or better in two of his last three trips. With a price back in the mid $8K range on DraftKings, I will have a ton of Hoge this week.
Ben Griffin
World Golf Ranking (#101)
Vegas Odds (100/1)
Draftkings ($7,200)
FanDuel ($8,600)
After a missed cut in the season-opening Fortinet Championship, Ben Griffin has steadily made his way up the rookie rankings making seven straight cuts including a T12 at the Sony Open where he was one of two players to finish Top 20 in both ball striking and putting. That brings us to the stats model and looking at the short-term version of that on Fantasy National, Griffin ranks 17th in SG: Ball Striking, 11th in SG: Approach, 12th in Par 4 Scoring, 23rd in opp Gained, and 11th in Birdies or Better over the last 24 rounds. Along with Lipsky, Griffin is one of my top PTS/$ values plays this week.
Also Consider: Tony Finau who is #1 in my short-term stats model rankings or Tom Kim as a bounce-back candidate who leads this field in SG: Tee to Green and Ball Striking over the last 24 rounds
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