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FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Sunday, 1/15/23
It's been an interesting week of basketball. We always discuss how bad the injury reports look, but they continue to get worse. It feels like numerous superstars are sitting on every slate, making DFS a challenging endeavor. In any case, we make these articles to help you guys digest some of that information and find the value from those unfortunate circumstances. We're going to capitalize on some of those injuries here, so let's get started with the point guards!
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Point Guard
De'Aaron Fox FD - $8500 DK - $9100
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 44.06 DK - 45.07
Fox is having a career year in Sacramento, and he could be on his way to Utah for his first career All-Star game. The speedster has scored at least 27 DraftKings points in all but three games this year, with all of those duds being limited by an injury or an ejection. That's one of the highest floors in this price range, and it pairs beautifully with his 41-point average. Squaring off with the Spurs is the best part of this, though, with San Antonio sitting dead last in both points allowed and defensive efficiency. They're also allowing the second-most fantasy points to opposing point guards, with Fox dropping 47 DraftKings points in their one matchup this year.
Tre Jones FD - $6800 DK - $6300
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 35.22 DK - 35.03
This Kings-Spurs matchup is expected to be the highest-scoring game on this slate, so we'll have a ton of exposure to it. That's why we love both of these point guards, with Jones running things in San Antonio. The 23-year-old has scored at least 29 DraftKings points in nine of his last 10 games, generating a 34-point average in that span. That's all you can ask for from a sub-$7K player, but it's no surprise since he's been asked to do more since Devin Vassell (knee) got injured. That expanded role makes Tre tough to fade against Sacramento, sitting 25th in both points allowed and defensive efficiency.
Luka Doncic (FD $12500 DK $12900) leads the NBA with nearly 65 fantasy points per game and is the safest option on every slate.
Shooting Guard
Tim Hardaway Jr. FD - $5800 DK - $5800
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 27.06 DK - 28.62
It was really tough to find any shooting guards that we liked, but we do have some cheap options that could be in line for big nights. We'll kick things off with Hardaway, who's being asked to be the Robin to Luka Doncic's Batman. Ever since Dorian Finney-Smith and Maxi Kleber went down, THJ has has a robust role in Dallas. In fact, Hardaway is playing 38 minutes a night over his last 14 games while attempting 14 shots a night. That could be even higher with Christian Wood nicked up too, and we're not worried about him facing an 18th-ranked Portland defense. THJ is averaging over 25 fantasy points per game in their two meetings this season and should be above $6K if he plays 40 minutes and takes 15 shots! Keep an eye on his ankle injury
Terance Mann FD - $5000 DK - $4300
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 30.08 DK - 30.38
Los Angeles made a brash move when they decided to exile Reggie Jackson from the rotation, but it's been an enormous boost for Mann. He's the one starting at point guard now, playing over 30 minutes a night in this newfound role. That's big news for a stat-stuffer like this, with Mann averaging 31 DK points per game in the 11 games he's played at least 30 minutes this year. Mann is maintaining a 36-minute role over the last three games, and we genuinely believe he can be a $7K player in that sort of opportunity, as long as R-Jax gets zeros sitting on the bench. Facing Houston is the icing on the cake, with the Rockets ranked 24th in points allowed and 28th in defensive efficiency ratings.
James Harden (FD $10600 DK $10100) would be one of the best plays if Joel Embiid sits in the second half of a B2B, especially if Tobias Harris is out again too.
Small Forward
LeBron James FD - $11000 DK - $11000
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 54 DK - 55.43
With so much value on this slate, getting studs like LeBron into your build will be critical. This guy has been the best player in the NBA for about 20 years now, and he's amid another fantastic season. The King is averaging 53 DraftKings points per game this season and has really stepped up since Anthony Davis (foot) got injured. That's led to LeBron scoring at least 48 DK points in 18 of his last 19 games, totaling a 55-point average in that span. He's being asked to do everything for this offense right now, averaging 31.4 points, 8.2 rebounds, and 7.3 assists across 37 minutes in that sensational stretch. Facing Philly is concerning, but you know LBJ will come out hard against that star-studded roster.
Saddiq Bey FD - $6100 DK - $5500
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 25.33 DK - 25.95
Bey was impossible to use when he was relegated to bench duties earlier in the season, but injuries have forced him into a monstrous role. Detroit is missing Cade Cunningham, Jalen Duren, Isaiah Stewart, and Marvin Bagley right now, moving Bey right back into the starting five. He's taken advantage of this newfound opportunity, scoring 42 DraftKings points in back-to-back games. More importantly, he's back to playing 35 minutes a night while attempting 15-20 shots a game, and that's the role that made him a $7K player at the end of last season. Facing the Knicks is not scary either, with Saddiq averaging 31 DK points per game against them in their six meetings since the start of last year.
Kawhi Leonard (FD $9400 DK $10000) has returned to the MVP stud we know and love, scoring at least 37 fantasy points in 10 of his last 12 games. That should be easy to reach against a 28th-ranked Rockets defense.
Power Forward
Julius Randle FD - $9900 DK - $10400
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 46.36 DK - 50.06
Randle is not getting enough credit for how well he's playing right now. The big man has been going buts in New York over the last month, scoring at least 42 DraftKings points in 19 straight games. He's also scored at least 53 fantasy points in 10 of his last 12 games, averaging nearly 60 DK points per game in that span. That's one of the best stretches from any player all year, and it's likely to continue against this disastrous Detroit defense. The Pistons are missing their two best big men while ranked 29th in both points allowed and defensive efficiency. In their most recent meeting, Randle registered 36 points, seven rebounds, and five assists in another masterclass performance.
Keldon Johnson FD - $6800 DK - $6800
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 33.55 DK - 35.17
This Spurs roster doesn't have much depth, and it should allow Jones and Johnson to feast with Vassell out through the All-Atar break. KJ was already the focal point of the offense before the injury, but it looks even better since he has a 31 percent usage rate with Vassell off the floor this year. That means Johnson is a lock for 30-35 minutes and 15-20 shots. He's been doing that most of the year anyway, averaging 33 DK points per game this year. That production, paired with an expanded role makes him tough to fade against Sacramento's subpar defense, surrendering the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing forwards this year.
Aaron Gordon (FD $6400 DK $6300) gets a revenge game against a 22nd-ranked Orlando defense, averaging 32 DK points per game across his last eight outings.
Center
Domantas Sabonis FD - $10300 DK - $10700
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 50.56 DK - 53.19
Let's cap off our Sacrament0-San Antonio stack with the best play in that tasty matchup. Sabonis will be the best player on the floor, averaging 48 DraftKings points per game this season. He's been even better as of late, scoring at least 52 fantasy points in 12 of his last 14 games. Sabonis is stuffing the stat sheet at will in that stretch, averaging 21.7 points, 14.7 rebounds, and 8.3 assists per game in a Nikola Jokic-type role. Those statistics should be easy to duplicate against the worst defense in the NBA, particularly with San Antonio surrendering the second-most fantasy points to opposing centers as well. If this game stays relatively close, Domas could drop a 30-point triple-double.
Mitchell Robinson FD - $6300 DK - $5600
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 32.65 DK - 30.26
It's hard to understand why Robinson remains so affordable. This guy was always one of the best per-minute producers in the NBA, and he's finally getting the 30-minute role we've been waiting for. Mitch-Rob has played at least 35 minutes in four of his last six games. He's also averaging 31 DK points per game across his last 25 outings, doing that damage in fewer than 30 minutes a night. This will be a $7K player if he continues to play 30-35 minutes a night, and we already discussed how Detroit is missing both pieces of their starting frontcourt. Robinson had 31 DK points when they were at full health back in November, and it's scary to think what he could do here against this no-name 29th-ranked defense.
Alperen Sengün (FD $6600 DK $7000) has a triple-double earlier in the week and should continue to blossom with Kevin Porter sidelined for Houston.
