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DFS NBA Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - Saturday 1/14
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Guards
*At this point, Luka is an auto-play and should be about $1000 more expensive on both sites. He is still hard to build around so my early construction will be centered around getting two of my favorite $10K players in my lineup as a core. Let's dig in!*
James Harden FD - $10600 DK - $10100
Opponent - UTA
Proj Pts FD - 49.36 DK - 53.3
After Luka, it is very close for me between Ja Morant and James Harden in high total games but I lean towards the latter as he has actually been giving us a more consistent PTS/$ return. He isn't garnering the same usage as in the past but has become an even more elite distributor averaging 12.5 rebounds over his last 10 games to go with 6.7 rebounds and 22.5 points for a fantasy return of over 55 points per game. He now faces a Utah defence that runs fast(11th in pace) and is 26th in defensive efficiency. Fire up Harden in all formats.
Gary Trent Jr. FD - $6900 DK - $6100
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 33.52 DK - 35.06
The guard position is loaded in every price tier tonight so lineup construction will ultimately come down to the final injury report and how much value is available. If you are looking for a consistent mid-tier play for cash games, don't overlook Gary Trent. He is very shooting dependant and even with the Raptors at full strength, he has been one of their best players lately. He is averaging over 17 shots and 24 points per game over his last eight while giving us a return of 37.8 fantasy points per game. In a matchup against one of the most fantasy-friendly defence's in the league, I have Trent in my first-look cash builds for tonight.
Buddy Hield FD - $6700 DK - $6300
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 38.11 DK - 42.44
Andrew Nembhard FD - $5700 DK - $4600
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 26.32 DK - 28.63
The Pacers are on a back-to-back on Saturday but it might not matter for playing time as they look to be short-handed once again with Haliburton, Turner, and NeSmith all missing last night's game. The one thing we know for sure is that Haliburton is out for multiple weeks and that means more opportunity at the guard position. Hield played 38 minutes last night and despite only shooting 5 for 15, ended up with 15 points, five rebounds, and five assists for almost 40 fantasy points. The volume will be there and I expect the shooting to get better which gives Hield a high floor and ceiling at these prices.
On the value end of things, Andrew Nembhard has been starting for some time now but with Haliburton out, saw his second-highest usage game of the season last night taking 16 shots. Like Hield, he was terrible from the field(2 for 16) but managed six rebounds and five assists to help him to a 25 fantasy point effort. Again, I see the volume remaining and the shooting % increasing which makes Nembhard a terrific PTS/$ value once again, especially on DraftKings in the mid $4K range.
Small Forward
Bennedict Mathurin FD - $5600 DK - $4900
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 32.18 DK - 35.53
The Pacers' value continues with another Canadian rookie who made the most of his opportunity last night. He led the team in minutes(39), shots(18), points(26) and ended up crushing his value with 36.5 FD/37.3 DK points. His value is much more reliant on the status of Myles Turner and Aaron NeSmith but if he gets another start, should be in your lineup in all formats.
Also Consider: Scottie Barnes(TOR) as a low-owned, high variance GPP play in a fantasy-friendly matchup.
Power Forward/Center
Jayson Tatum FD - $10800 DK - $10600
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 55.74 DK - 56.95
Tatum checks all the boxes tonight and it starts with the matchup as the Celtics face a Hornets team that runs at a top-10 pace, has given up 120 or more points in five of their last seven, and ranks 27th overall in defensive efficiency. Tatum already has elite usage(32%) but gets a 3-4% bump when Brown is out of the lineup which will be the case for the second straight game. When looking at the top tier plays(including Luka), Tatum is far and away our top play from a PTS/$ perspective. I will be building around him in all formats.
Jaren Jackson Jr. FD - $8100 DK - $7500
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 41.48 DK - 40.45
The Grizzlies may be in one of the best spots of the night facing a short-handed Pacers team that is also playing on a back-to-back. This game should be very fast-paced as both teams rank Top 10 in that category and while Jackson's minutes can be inconsistent at times(mostly due to fouls), he is in the midst of one of his most productive stretches of the season. Going back to New Years Eve, he has averaged 19.3 points on 12 shots, 8.1 rebounds, and over 40 fantasy points per game in that seven-game stretch. I will have exposure in all formats.
