Daily Fantasy DraftKings and FanDuel NBA Picks - Friday, January 13, 2023

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Point Guard/ Shooting Guard

Jalen Green FD - $7000 DK - $7600
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 37.81 DK - 42.22

Kevin Porter Jr. is going to sit this game out which means we are likely to see more of the offense run through Jalen Green who likely shifts completely into the point guard role. Green has a 28.4% usage rate on the season, but that number climbs to 33.5% with Porter off the court. It’s a “healthy” bump for the second-year guard who isn’t priced like what the opportunity could be here. The Rockets are big (-10.5) underdogs in this game, but the opportunity is there for the guard here and should be able to take advantage.

De'Aaron Fox FD - $8500 DK - $9000
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 46.43 DK - 49.51

The Kings are pretty big favorites here but it’s tough to get away from Fox’s price on the slate considering he’s going up against a team in the Rockets with the third-worst defensive efficiency playing an above average pace. Sacramento has been involved with some blowouts over the last few games, effectively cutting Fox’s minutes, but in close ones it sure seems like the plan is to run him 36-37. That should give him a high enough floor, especially on the FanDuel price which is coming too cheap here.

Buddy Hield FD - $6700 DK - $6500
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 37.64 DK - 41.72

Bennedict Mathurin FD - $5600 DK - $4800
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 29.95 DK - 32.98

Andrew Nembhard FD - $5300 DK - $4300
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 25.62 DK - 28

T.J. McConnell FD - $5000 DK - $4100
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 27.07 DK - 27.88

Piling most of the Pacers guards together here as potential plays seeing as how Tyrese Haliburton is out for the foreseeable future and all of these guys stand to see a healthy bump in minutes, usage, and on-ball time in the offense. It’s unclear how exactly they run the starting unit now with Haliburton out of the mix though Hield and Nembhard have already been there and should stick. The last spot presumably goes to Mathurin or McConnell, both of whom could have upside at their middle-tier price points.

With Haliburton off the court this season, Mathurin sees the most dramatic increase in usage at 31%, well above anyone else on the team. He could be a high volume shooter in this offense for sure. Tyrese is a ball-distributor and not a huge usage guy so it more about offense facilitation here than anything else. But between that and the increased backcourt minutes, all of these guys are looking at considerably larger roles.

Small Forward

Zach LaVine FD - $8600 DK - $9200
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 47.14 DK - 51.45

It looks like DeMar DeRozan is going to sit out again for this game, leaving a ton of opportunity in the Bulls’ offense when they play the Thunder. Chicago is coming off a close loss to the Wizards where they missed a shot at the buzzer to tie it. But Lavine’s usage was through the roof, taking 28 shots on his way to 38 points. We could see a similar shot output in this game against the Thunder who play the fourth-fastest pace in the league. Lavine’s FanDuel price has not adjusted enough for DDR being out of the mix seeing as how he has a 32% usage rate with DeRozan off the court. Fire him back up after he was a chalk play last time out.

Kenyon Martin Jr. FD - $3900 DK - $3800
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 25.59 DK - 28.05

We should see Kenyon Martin Jr. get the start here for the injured Kevin Porter Jr. While not a 1:1 swap on position or skillset, KMJ is malleable enough to fill in when almost anyone in the Rockets’ lineup can’t run for a game. Per 30 minutes this season, he’s averaging 13.4 points and six rebounds with a smattering of assists, blocks, and steals thrown in there as well. Coming cheap on both sites and set for a bumped-up role means we can roll Martin in cash games in an effort to get in some of the more expensive options on the slate.

Power Forward/ Center

Domantas Sabonis FD - $10000 DK - $10600
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 51.9 DK - 55.85

Nikola Jokic is rightfully very expensive on this slate though it’s almost always worth it to pay up for that guy. But if you want to save some money and find a guy with triple-double potential on any given night then Sabonis is your guy. The plan seems to play him high 30s minutes in close games. And he’s averaging 20 points and 13 rebounds over the last six games even through minutes got away from him in a couple of them. There’s a high floor here for Sabonis and the FanDuel price doesn’t make it all that tough of a decision considering the matchup and potential flow of this game.

Nikola Vucevic FD - $8100 DK - $8500
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 48.7 DK - 52.28

Vucevic, like Lavine, hasn’t been totally priced up with DeMar DeRozan being out and is coming off taking 14 shots in the loss the the Wizards on Wednesday. He finished with 15 points and 10 rebounds in his 39 minutes. The latter part is the key with Chicago clearly willing to run him full minutes in the short-term, something you don’t often get out of the center position. The Thunder allow the most opponent rebounds in the league this season at 55.7, 8% more than league average when it comes to that stat. It’s a big number and falls right into Vuce’s skillset her. The price on both sites is too low.

Alperen Sengün FD - $6400 DK - $6900
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 42.19 DK - 44.63

I do think the Rockets want to play Sengun minutes in the low 30s in close games, but he keeps undermining that by getting into foul trouble. When he’s able to stay on the court, the fantasy floor is very high as evidenced by the triple-double last time out (10s all around) and a 15.4 point and 8.4 rebound average over the last five games. The price has stayed relatively in check because the minutes have come and gone, but I think he is a value against this Kings’ team.