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DFS NBA Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - Thursday 1/12
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Guards
Luka Doncic FD - $12200 DK - $12800
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 62.51 DK - 66.5
When we pay right up for these superstars, we are looking more for the raw points than the PTS/$ value but what's great about Luka is that he gives us both. It didn't take long for his price to hit the $12K range this season and that is right where it has sat for months which is crazy considering he is averaging 73.6 DraftKings points over his last nine games and 65.9 over the last 20. I see no reason he doesn't get there tonight in a pace-up game vs a fast Lakers team(2nd in pace) that ranks 21st in defensive efficiency and 24th in fantasy points to guards. Doncic is once again a building block for me in all formats.
Gary Trent Jr. FD - $7200 DK - $6200
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 33.21 DK - 34.91
The mid-range when looking at guards is somewhat lacking tonight, which makes Gary Trent stand out, at least on DraftKings where the price is slow to catch up to the consistent form lately. He is a shooting-dependant guard but has been getting consistent usage with 13 or more shots in seven straight games and he has also been shooting about 3-4% better than his season averages which has resulted in 30 or more DraftKings points in each of those games. In a plus matchup against the Hornets that rank 25th in defence and 18th in fantasy points to guards, I am on board with Trent in all formats on DraftKings tonight.
Gabe Vincent FD - $4100 DK - $4000
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 24.16 DK - 26.8
This is a very interesting game in that the Heat draw a terrible matchup against the Bucks 3rd ranked defence but have already ruled out multiple players leading to a ton of much-needed value, especially if playing Luka. Vincent got the start last game with both Lowry and Herro out and despite only shooting 25% from the field, still hit over 7x at his punt pricing. That price has gone up but a similar performance would still get him over 5x value which is a great floor and starting point tonight. I will have exposure in all formats.
Small Forward
Max Strus FD - $5500 DK - $5300
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 26.5 DK - 29.3
Sticking with the Heat here, not only is Lowry and Herro out tonight but Caleb Martin is also out. Strus is a little more expensive than Vincent but still in a great spot to give us near-elite PTS/$ value despite the tougher matchup against the Bucks. Like Vincent, he also started the last game playing monster minutes(42) and returning over 7x value at his current price. Despite the injuries, the Heat are still home favourites in this one and I will be stacking Strus and Vincent in all formats.
Also Consider: Josh Hart(POR) who is back providing consistent returns with 33 or more DraftKings points in three straight thanks to a very balanced attack of points, rebounds, and assists
Power Forward/Center
LeBron James FD - $11000 DK - $10900
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 56.19 DK - 60.91
After taking a night off with a sore ankle, LeBron is probable for tonight's game in a superstar matchup against Luka and Mavs. If there is not enough value to comfortably build around Luka, LeBron is easily my next favourite superstar on this slate which is full of them. It ultimately comes down to volume and LBJ is most definitely getting that with Davis, Walker, and Reaves out of the lineup. He has taken 26 or more shots in three of his last four games and without AD in the lineup, has garnered a 36% usage rate going back to December 16. All things considered, James is an elite play in all formats.
Ben Simmons FD - $6800 DK - $5400
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 29.95 DK - 31.06
With the price differential on Simmons, I am really only interested in DraftKings tonight and cash games are where I am focusing my exposure. That is mostly due to the lack of usage in the offence which really limits the upside but he what he lacks in shot volume he makes up for in secondary stats which does give him a nice floor. Over his last four games, he has tallied six or more rebounds in each and seven or more assists in three of those games while averaging 28.4 DK points per game.
Thomas Bryant FD - $7100 DK - $6900
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 37.08 DK - 39.6
Back to the Lakers to close things out as Thomas Bryant continues to pay off his rising price with the added opportunities due to injuries, specifically to Anthony Davis. He comes in red-hot with double-doubles in three straight and five of his last six games while averaging over 40 fantasy points per game during that stretch and even still averaging just under 35 per game since AD went down. I will have exposure in all formats as Bryant is my top center on this slate.
