(AP Photo/Wilfredo Lee)
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Opponent MIA
Proj Points FD - 24.99 DK - 24.99
This almost doesn’t feel like a playoff game with the way the Dolphins are coming into Buffalo. It’s unclear who will play quarterback and it’s also unclear how they stand a chance at all against the Bills. That being said, we do know what we are getting on the other side of the ball and that’s one of the most dangerous passing attacks out there when things are rolling right.
To some degree that was on display against the Patriots on Sunday with the Bills needing to win to secure their seeding. Allen went for 254 yards and three touchdowns on 31 attempts. It hasn’t been great over the second half of the season, but if the rushing attempts are going to stay in the 8-9 range then he has as high a floor (and ceiling) as anyone out there.
Opponent MIN
Proj Points FD - 21.51 DK - 21.51
The Giants are only +3 dogs going into Minnesota for this Wild Card game and Daniel Jones is a big reason why. He’s been among the surprise fantasy upside quarterbacks this season, combining just enough in the passing attack (to total dustball WRs) with the ability to get out and run when necessary. Two weeks ago against these same Vikings, Jones threw for 334 yards and a touchdown. Plus, over the course of the season, he’s averaged 44 yards per game on the ground. The latter could really be there this week in a great game environment and the Giants playing for their lives. At his pricing, I suspect he sees heavy ownership, especially on DraftKings.
Opponent MIN
Proj Points FD - 19.08 DK - 21.36
On DraftKings, Saquon Barkley makes for a tough fade here seeing as how he’s somewhat game-script independent because of how the Giants use him in the offense. The blowout to Philly in Week 13 was the only game in which he saw fewer than 16 touches and he averaged 23.2 (carries + targets) over the course of the season. Here he’ll face a 27th (27th!!) ranked Minnesota defense that was well below average against both the pass and the run (worse against the pass). The Giants draw one of the best matchups on the slate, no doubt about it. Barkley’s work in the pass game and the chance the Giants could lean on him if they are winning give him as much upside as anyone going this weekend.
Opponent NYG
Proj Points FD - 16.13 DK - 17.26
Speaking of bad rush defenses, the Vikings get to go the other way and face the Giants. New York ranks 32nd (dead last) against the rush this season with the second-most yards per carry allowed of any team in the league. Cook definitely had an efficiency drop off over the second half of the season which does raise some concerns about whether he’s fully 100% or just run-down going into this game. But Minnesota did take their foot off the gas in the second half of Week 18. As a -3 home favorite in great conditions against a bad run defense, this is the spot to fire up Cook.
Strongly consider Joe Mixon as a big favorite at home but be warned that Baltimore had a top-10 defense against the run this season.
Also, though they are huge underdogs, it looks like Jeff Wilson Jr. could see the bulk of the carries for the Dolphins if Raheem Mostert were to sit.
Opponent NYG
Proj Points FD - 20.28 DK - 24.28
Justin Jefferson finished the season with 1,809 receiving yards, 122 more than the next-closest WR in Tyreek Hill. It was a masterful second year with for the wideout who is about the best in the game right now. Three weeks ago agains this same Giants defense, Jefferson balled out with 16 targets, good for 12 catches, 133 yards, and a touchdown. A similar line could be in store for this one with Minnesota likely leaning on him early and often in this game.
Because of the nature of the slate, we could see Jefferson with the highest-overall ownership on this small slate. For cash games, he’s just too tough of a fade based on the receiving volume and talent.
Opponent MIN
Proj Points FD - 12.87 DK - 16.45
Opponent MIN
Proj Points FD - 14.12 DK - 17.94
Opponent MIN
Proj Points FD - 10.66 DK - 12.91
I present you the New York Giants wide receiver corps in no particular order. The Giants come into this game as underdogs in great weather (dome) conditions against a team ranked 26th against the pass. And they are all coming cheap. New York has been fine running three-wideout sets meaning these guys are seeing solid snap count reps over the short-term.
Back in Week 17 before the Giants took their foot off the gas, all three played right around 80% of the snaps with James and Hodgins combining for a 50% target share. And if you look back to when the Giants played the Vikings last, those two combined for 23 total targets (James - 11, Hodgins - 12).
Coming around $4K on DraftKings makes for the best chance to just game-stack the passing game and hope this turns into a shootout. The Bengals might have it pretty easy here with the Ravens possibly running a third-stringer at quarterback, but if Tee Higgins were to sit then Ja'Marr Chase and Tyler Boyd are in good spots.
Opponent NYG
Proj Points FD - 11.49 DK - 14.34
Look, the theme is Vikings and Giants on this slate so we might as well stick here. Hockenson has made the most of his time in Minnesota since being traded by the Lions, seeing almost 9.5 targets a game (outside of last week) and averaging 6.5 catches and 56 yards in that stretch. He’s a big red zone target for Kirk Cousins and the DraftKings price really hasn’t caught all the way up with this kind of usage. Tight end is such a garbage position, but Hockenson at least as a relatively high floor here.
I think that Dawson Knox and Daniel Bellinger make for fine cheaper options here. The Bills could get up easily in the game and it would likely lower the ceiling on Knox. Meanwhile, Bellinger doesn’t have that high of a floor with a projected 3-4 targets, but he’s cheap and the position is rough.
Opponent MIA
Proj Points FD - 8.44 DK - 8.44
Opponent BAL
Proj Points FD - 7.41 DK - 7.41
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