Philadelphia 76ers guard James Harden (1) handles the ball during the second half of an NBA basketball game against the Minnesota Timberwolves, Friday, Feb. 25, 2022, in Minneapolis. Philadelphia won 133-102. (AP Photo/Stacy Bengs)
The scoring in the NBA right now is nuts. Many skeptics would argue that it's a lack of defense, but that's a lazy response. It's all about the offenses because these players are unstoppable in today's NBA. It's led to more 40-point games than ever in the history of the sport, and the big stat lines will continue to flow in. We're projecting another one here from the hottest player in the NBA, so let's start there!
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Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 65.15 DK - 68.02
This Doncic pricing is insane, but the Slovenian is worth it every single night. This guy is posting some of the most absurd stats in NBA history, leading the league with 64 DraftKings points per game. That's no surprise since he's flirting with a league-leading 40 percent usage rate, doing everything for this Dallas offense. His most recent form is truly ridiculous, averaging 41.4 points, 11.0 rebounds, 8.9 assists, and 1.9 steals over his last seven games. The only concern is that this is the second half of a back-to-back set. If Doncic does end up sitting, Spencer Dinwiddie and Christian Wood would be the best plays on the board. We say that because Oklahoma City ranks 25th in total defense.
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 33.38 DK - 34.34
Russell has remained around this $7K price tag, and it's hard to understand why. The former All-Star is amid one of the best stretches of his career right now, seeing a massive boost in usage and shot attempts in the absence of Karl-Anthony Towns. That's led to Russell scoring at least 33 DraftKings points in 17 of his last 20 games. He's also averaging over 35 fantasy points per game in that span, scoring over 40 DK points in half of those games. A matchup with the Rockets is the best part of this, with Houston surrendering the most fantasy points to opposing point guards. In their four matchups since the start of last season, D-Lo is averaging 41 DraftKings points per game.
De'Anthony Melton (FD $6000 DK $5500) has seen a price drop, but he should continue to play 30-plus minutes with Joel Embiid still sidelined.
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 55.4 DK - 58.42
The Beard has taken a backseat to Joel Embiid this season, but Harden should run the show in Philly as long as the big man is out. With Embiid off the floor this season, James is generating a team-leading 33 percent usage rate while averaging 1.5 DK points per minute. To put that in perspective, that would equate to 60 DK points if Harden plays 40 minutes. That's far from shocking when examining his recent form, averaging 52 DK points per game across his last seven outings. Getting to face Detroit's disastrous defense is the jelly in the donut, with the Pistons allowing the second-most fantasy points to opposing guards this year.
Opponent - UTA
Proj Pts FD - 33.05 DK - 34.74
Bane has had a "down" season by his lofty standards, but this guy will be a $7K player in no time. The bulky guard was actually closer to $8K at times last year, averaging nearly 40 fantasy points per game. Despite some struggles, Desmond is still posting a 36-point average this year. That alone is an excellent total from a sub-$7K player, especially since Bane had 42 DK points across 26 minutes in his most recent outing. That's massive since his minute's restriction was just lifted, and we love that Utah allows the most fantasy points to opposing SGs. In their one matchup earlier this season, Bane bludgeoned them to the tune of 46 DraftKings points in one of the best games of the year.
Terance Mann (FD $4300 DK $3900) could be a massive bargain if Kawhi or Paul George sit in this game.
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 36.41 DK - 37.01
There are some simple rules when using these Sixers. Whenever Embiid or Harden it out, Harris needs to be in your lineup. This 50-40-90 stud is one of the most efficient players in the NBA, and a boost in usage always makes him a good value. That's great news since Embiid is out, giving Harris more minutes, rebounds, shot attempts, and usage in his absence. In the last four games that Joel has sat, Harris has scored at least 40 fantasy points in all of them! That's higher than our projection, and it's actually right on par with what he did last season when the MVP runner-up was sidelined. We're obviously not worried about him facing the Pistons, with Detroit ranked 29th in both points allowed and defensive efficiency.
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 34.12 DK - 33.43
This guy does not get enough credit. Anunoby has developed into one of the best players in the league, and he should be one of the frontrunners for Defensive Player of the Year. The young forward's role is one of his biggest assets, playing over 37 minutes a night. That gargantuan workload has led to his brilliant 35-point average, scoring at least 31 DK points in five straight games. It's rare to find a floor like that from a sub-$7K player, and you know OG will be in there 40 minutes to guard Damian Lillard. In two meetings with the Trail Blazers last season, Anunoby averaged 44 fantasy points per game, playing at least 41 minutes in both!
Kyle Anderson (FD $6100 DK $5300) has been starting for KAT, averaging nearly 30 fantasy points per game as a starter.
Opponent - UTA
Proj Pts FD - 40.9 DK - 38.27
Jackson's price has been hovering around $6K all season, and it's finally getting closer to where it should be. We genuinely believe that this guy will be a $9K player in the near future because he is one of the most talented forwards in the NBA. The big man is averaging nearly 35 fantasy points per game, despite playing fewer than 26 minutes a night. That's one of the best per-minute rates you'll see, and we have to assume he'll play 30-35 minutes more often as the season progresses. One of those upside games feels more likely against Utah, with the Jazz ranked 22nd in points allowed and 26th in defensive efficiency. In three meetings with the Jazz last season, JJJ averaged 46 DK points per game!
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 31.78 DK - 32.05
I hate to include similar players so often, but Jackson and Washington are always among my favorite picks for the power forward position. This is easily the weakest position in DFS right now, but these two guys have massive upside. Washington flashed a 56-point upside earlier in the year and has scored at least 31 DK points 16 times this season. That would be a tantalizing total from such an affordable player, and it looks more likely since PJ is averaging 34 DK points per game across his last eight outings. The boost in production is no surprise since Gordon Hayward and Miles Bridges are out of the picture, and he should continue that success against Indiana. PJ provided 37 DK points in his one matchup with the Pacers earlier in the year, and we're not concerned about them sitting 27th in defensive efficiency ratings.
John Collins (FD $7000 DK $6800) has at least 34 DraftKings points in six of his last seven games, stepping up in the absence of Clint Capela.
Opponent - UTA
Proj Pts FD - 37.22 DK - 37.88
Adams has seen a massive price increase over the last week, but it's easy to understand why. This has been the leading rebounder in the NBA over the last week, snatching down nearly 17 rebounds over his previous five games. That's allowed Adams to score at least 36 DraftKings points in four of his last five games, flashing a 50-point upside in two of those. That's absurd from a $6K player, and Adams should keep annihilating the glass against the Jazz. Utah is surrendering the second-most fantasy points to opposing centers this year while posting the horrific defensive numbers from the Jackson write-up. There is a chance Adams is rested here with a questionable tag, and if he's out, Jackson would be our favorite play on the slate!
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 30.67 DK - 31.03
Sengun has an incredible trajectory. This Turkish center is one of the most skilled big men in the NBA, and he could be the next Nikola Jokic if he continues to develop his game. The big man has scored at least 31 DK points in three straight outings since sitting last weekend, posting a 36-point average in that span. He's doing that damage in just 27 minutes a night, and that's the elite per-minute rate we've seen all year. The good news is that Bruno Fernando has been ruled out for the foreseeable future, and that should guarantee Sengun 30 minutes for the time being. In the 21 games Sengun has played at least 25 minutes, he's averaging nearly 40 fantasy points per game! A matchup with Minnesota is magical, too, with the T'Wolves ranked third in pace and 20th in total defense.
Rudy Gobert (FD $7600 DK $6900) just had a 20-20 game in his most recent outing and should have more of those in the future with KAT sidelined.
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