Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson runs up field after catching a pas during the first half of an NFL football game against the New York Jets, Sunday, Dec. 4, 2022, in Minneapolis. (AP Photo/Bruce Kluckhohn)
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Opponent MIN
Proj Points FD - 19.66 DK - 19.66
The Packers somehow find themselves in the playoff hunt despite looking all but dead just a few weeks ago. But everything has broken right for this team and now they find themselves home favorites against the 12-3 Vikings. Minnesota ranks 24th against the pass this season and this game’s 48 over/under is the second-highest of the main slate. Rodgers has gotten more comfortable with some of the young receivers in Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs, opening up the air attack even more. He’s coming cheap enough on both sites to consider in cash.
Opponent NO
Proj Points FD - 19.62 DK - 19.62
It doesn’t look like Jalen Hurts is going to play in Week 17, though that has yet to be determined. It should be Gardner Minshew once again for the Eagles and he’s coming so, so cheap on DraftKings for another week. In place of Hurts, Minshew threw the ball 40 times against Dallas (completing 25) for 355 yards and two touchdowns. Though he’s clearly not as good as Hurts (few are), this team still has weapons which he utilized last time out. The floor is definitely high enough against the Saints to think about playing him on DK.
Strongly consider Daniel Jones
Opponent MIA
Proj Points FD - 17.41 DK - 19.63
Even at 7-8, the Patriots are still in the mix for the playoffs in the AFC and will have a chance to make a real move here if they can beat the Patriots at home. Rhamondre Stevenson has one of the best roles in football, coming off playing 91% of the team’s offensive snaps in Week16. As long as this one is close, he should see the bulk of the touches and they’ve used him more in the passing game over the second half of the season. Miami has a good defensive DVOA ranking against the rush, but are a below average defense on the season. I like Stevenson at these price points.
Opponent ARI
Proj Points FD - 17.6 DK - 19.35
The Falcons’ season is over, but from a scheme and ball-carrying standpoint, they’ve turned the reins over to Tyler Allgeier in the running game. In the Week 15 loss to the Ravens, Allgeier carried the ball 18 times and saw five targets in the passing game while playing 58% of the snaps. That’s elite usage for the rookie running back and he’s coming at a lower price point on both sites if you think this is the plan for the last couple of games. He’s playing a Cardinals’ defense ranked 27th against the run this season and Atlanta is actually -3.5 favorites at home. This is a good spot for Allgeier and he makes for a solid cash play.
Opponent NO
Proj Points FD - 14.9 DK - 15.53
Even against a stout Dallas defense, the Eagles wanted to lean on Sanders and the ground game with Jalen Hurts out of the mix. Sanders carried the ball 21 times on 54% of the snaps, though only tallied 65 total yards. This week he gets a better matchup against the New Orleans Saints who rank 21st against the rush this season. Coming under $7K with higher touchdown equity because Hurts isn’t operating in and around the goal line, Sanders is a good option on that site.
Keep an eye on the statuses of Derrick Henry and Travis Etienne this week. Both could sit and it would open up opportunity for Hassan Haskins and JaMychal Hasty respectively.
Opponent GB
Proj Points FD - 22.46 DK - 26.87
Justin Jefferson still has an outside chance of hitting 2,000 receiving yards on the season which would also be an NFL record. He needs just about 150 yards per game over the next two weeks to get it done. And the way this dude is rolling, that is perfectly in play. He’s coming off a three-straight 15+ target games and has totaled 479 yards over that span. It’s kind of gettin ridiculous at this point, and the Vikings most-definitely want to win against the Packers this week with a first-round bye still somehow in play for this team. Jefferson is expensive, but not pricy enough against Green Bay in a great game environment.
Opponent CHI
Proj Points FD - 20.5 DK - 25.31
There is clearly a world in which we aren’t going to be paying up for running backs this week meaning it could be time to spend on wide receivers. Justin Jefferson is already a play, and Amon-Ra St. Brown makes for a high floor play as well. ARSB ranks 7th overall in targets this season despite playing one fewer game than anyone higher than him on the list. He has nine of more targets in each of the last five games and has averaged eight catches and 91 yards per game in that stretch. Now the Lions get to face the league’s worst defense in the Bears who stink against both the pass and the run. St. Brown is still underpriced on both sites for his target share and volume in a choice matchup.
Opponent IND
Proj Points FD - 12.43 DK - 15.94
Opponent IND
Proj Points FD - 11.87 DK - 15.14
Richie James was a popular play in cash on both sites last week and for good reason. He was coming cheap and the Giants were in a matchup that favored the pass. With Big Blue still short on WR options and James playing nearly every down, he makes for a higher-floor option once again. He saw 12 targets in Week 16 and has 26 total over the last three weeks.
Meanwhile, it would be easy to see Hodgins’ Week 16 performance and think this play was predicated on that game alone. But that isn’t the case. The Giants wide receiver has six of more targets in three of the last four weeks and has caught touchdowns in three of the last four. He’s been playing about 90% of the Giants’ offensive snaps over the last few weeks making him appear at least a safer play in this particular price tier.
Opponent HOU
Proj Points FD - 10.73 DK - 13.59
Don’t look now, but over the last four weeks Evan Engram leads all tight ends in targets. He has 40 total, turning them into 31 catches, 367 yards, and three touchdowns. Those latter numbers are also league-highs among tight ends in that stretch. The Jaguars could take their foot off the gas a bit this week with the likelihood that really only next week matters for them. But if he plays, Engram would make for a tough fade considering what he’s been doing for the last month.
Opponent GB
Proj Points FD - 13.57 DK - 16.88
I know it’s weird to put him second considering he is coming off a 16-target game in Week 16 that saw him finish with 13 catches, 109 yards, and two touchdowns. But price is a factor here and Engram has also had elite usage at the position for $1K or more cheaper. But Hockenson is an elite play on this slate and there’s a case with these two guys to not punt at tight end which has often been a strategy this season.
Opponent DEN
Proj Points FD - 9.34 DK - 9.34
Opponent CHI
Proj Points FD - 6.71 DK - 6.71
Opponent MIA
Proj Points FD - 8.32 DK - 8.32
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