Charlotte Hornets guard LaMelo Ball (2) pushes the ball up the court during the first half of an NBA basketball game against the Orlando Magic, Wednesday, Nov. 24, 2021, in Orlando, Fla. (AP Photo/Phelan M. Ebenhack)
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Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 47.86 DK - 53.43
This slate has a ton of high totals on it going in so there could be a mix of value depending on where you want to target. The Hornets and Warriors is one of those games, coming in at a 234.5 over/under and setting up to be an up-and-down affair. LaMelo is playing minutes in the 36-37 range each night and has triple-double potential when things break right. Over the last three games, he’s averaging 25 points, nine rebounds, and nine assists. And the FanDuel price hasn’t caught up with that level of production.
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 49.62 DK - 54.39
James Harden has been playing major minutes of late for the 76ers, a welcome sign if we are running him in cash games. He’s played 37 or more in regulation in four of the last five and topped 40 in each of the last two. Those latter numbers probably aren’t going to be the norm, but it’s clear Doc Rivers and company are fine with major run for Harden at this point. He’s two games removed from a 20-point, 21-assists, 11-rebound game against the Clippers and followed it up with a strong Christmas Day showing as well.
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 41.5 DK - 44.02
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 24.47 DK - 27.69
The Suns are, once again, going to be without Devin Booker and now they won’t have Landry Shamet off the bench either. That’s going to, presumably, mean that there are a lot of guard minutes to go around and Chris Paul and Damion Lee should pick up most of that in the backcourt. It’s been somewhat hit or miss for CP3 with Booker out of the mix though in close games the minutes are definitely there. He’s double-doubled in two of the last three games and can get there with points and assists even against a strong Grizzlies team.
Meanwhile, Lee should get the start here and will ring in as a strong punt play option for this slate. He got to play 30 minutes in the Christmas Day game against the Nuggets and dropped 18 points and eight rebounds. The defensive stats don’t come all that much, but the points assists per 30 minutes are enough to be a value at these prices on both sites.
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 56.68 DK - 60.46
It’s still kind of a mess for the Lakers right now, having lost the last three games and are now sitting at 13-20 on the season with Anthony Davis still on the shelf for the foreseeable future. Even though it’s been a major struggle, LeBron James is still a fantastic option at these prices, especially on DraftKings where he hasn’t crested over $11K yet. He’s scored 30+ in each of the last seven games. His only issue is the assists and rebounds aren’t coming in quite the numbers one would think with Davis out of the mix, especially the boards. But this is a good matchup against the Magic and you know LA is still going to push this thing in the short term.
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 24.3 DK - 26.63
Kenyon Martin Jr. is questionable for this game, but should end up getting the start for Eric Gordon if he’s a full go. On a slate with some big totals and high-priced superstars, it’s going to pay to find some value where we can. Though the Rockets are big-time dogs to the Celtics (-14.5), there should be starter’s minutes for Martin who is coming $4500 or lower on each site. He has the defensive upside in him, ringing up three steals the last time he started. He won’t have high usage in this offense with Jalen Green, Kevin Porter, and Jabari Smith, but doesn’t need to at these prices.
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 32.91 DK - 33.94
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 30.58 DK - 31.46
Clint Cappella is out for this game and that should mean almost all of the center minutes go to these two against the Pacers. It’s unclear, at this point, how exactly the Hawks run out the starters. It could be both Collins and Okongwu together or it could be Collins at the five and Okongwu coming off the bench. We will have to wait and see on that as we get closer to lock. Regardless, we are looking at a situation in which both are value plays on this slate at their current price points. The Pacers are a bottom-third defensive team playing at a top-10 pace, sitting right in the sweet spot for matching up in DFS.
Collins isn’t getting up many shots in this offense but has been active enough on the boards, a number set to increase with no Capela. And if Okongwu started then he’s coming too cheap on DraftKings especially if the minutes were going to tick into the low 30s.
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 28.46 DK - 30.4
Like we said with Paul and Lee, the Suns are way short on players for this game and that should mean plenty of run for Torrey Craig. He played 36 last game on Christmas, finishing with 13 points and seven rebounds while adding in three steals+blocks as well. He needs to run major minutes in order to hit value seeing as how he’s just a three-and-d dude in this scheme, but the Suns are so shorthanded right now that I don’t think it will be an issue.
Keep an eye on the Domantas Sabonis situation. He could sit this game out and that would mean some value opening up on the Kings for sure.
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