(AP Photo/TUSP, Jay Biggerstaff)
Merry Christmas football fans. We have a very special three-game slate today and we got you covered with some of our top picks at each position. Let's dig in.
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Opponent ARI
Proj Points FD - 18.18 DK - 18.18
I am taking a veteran approach to the quarterback position on Christmas and it starts with the GOAT, Tom Brady. He hasn't exactly been an upside option with just one game posting 25 or more fantasy points but he has been consistent recently hitting the 3x threshold on DraftKings in four of his last five games with multiple touchdown passes in each of those. He has a very strong receiving core led by Mike Evans and Chris Godwin and the Bucs also get a plus matchup against the Cards who rank 20th in DVOA against the pass and 25th in fantasy points to quarterbacks. Fire up Tampa Tom in all formats on Christmas Day.
Opponent MIA
Proj Points FD - 17.33 DK - 17.33
This marks the first time in 2022 I have targeted Aaron Rodgers outside of showdown as it has been a rough year. I much prefer Brady in the same price range as he has better surrounding targets but Rodgers is in play here against a Dolphins team that is much better against the run(11th) than against the pass(26th) and also give up the second-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. We don't like Rodgers in cash games but based on the data there is a game script where the Dolphins shut down Aaron Jones/AJ Dillon and Rodgers has to pass 35+ times. This could lead to a ceiling game and we are on board in GPP formats this week.
Opponent GB
Proj Points FD - 14.12 DK - 15.6
When looking at the projections, we have four backs who are within a one point of each but it's Mostert who tops the list for me here. It starts with the matchup as he faces a Packers team that is dead last in DVOA against the rush and has given up 100+ rushing yards in 11 of 14 games and 150+ rushing yards in eight of those. Mostert also checks the boxes we are looking for in a running back as a home favorite in a game with the highest total on the slate. He could also see some heavy usage in this game as Jeff Wilson is questionable to play and could miss his second straight game. I like Mostert either way but if Wilson is out, he easily becomes my top running back on this slate.
Opponent ARI
Proj Points FD - 6.26 DK - 7.24
This slate is full of running back timeshares so we really have to pick and choose out spots. Fournette has slowly seen his usage drop throughout the season with the emergence of Rachaad White but he has still provided value as the main pass-catching back. Yes, the Bucs are touchdown favorites here but the Cards are not only 25th in fantasy points to running backs, they have also allowed the 8th most receiving yards to the position. Both Tampa running backs are in play for me here but Fournette is the one I will have the most exposure to in all formats.
Opponent ARI
Proj Points FD - 13.87 DK - 16.54
Despite this game having a total that is 10 points lower than GB/MIA, the Bucs have the second-highest implied team total and is my favorite spot to double stack today. Evans hasn't reach ed the endzone since week 4 but the good news is that he has been consistent thanks to the volume. He has seen nine or more targets in six of his last eight games(9.3 average) and has exceeded 80 or more yards in three of those games. The matchup also lines up as the Cards have given up the 8th most yards to outside wide receivers in 2022. Evans is in play for me in all formats.
Opponent MIA
Proj Points FD - 9.91 DK - 11.91
The Packers and more specifically Aaron Rodgers have been patiently waiting for one of their rookie wideouts to break out and we are watching that unfold in the second half of the season with Watson. After no seeing more than four targets in any game up to week 9, Watson has now seen six or more in five straight and appears to have earned ARod's trust. You could say he has been running a little touchdown hot with seven in a four-game stretch but he also has two 100-yard games in that time and 46 or more in all five. He is in play for me in all formats.
Also Consider: Tyreek Hill(MIA) who leads our projections on this slate but is a little harder to build around at his price. Either way, he is in play in all formats.
Opponent LAR
Proj Points FD - 8.4 DK - 10.36
Opponent ARI
Proj Points FD - 3.91 DK - 4.86
The tight end position is nasty on this slate but at least it is going to give us some salary relief to stack top studs at other positions. If you are looking for volume and the safest floor for cash games, Dulcich leads the projections here and has seen five or more targets since making his debut in week 6. Like most of the tight ends on this slate he is boom or bust but does have four games with double-digit DraftKings points. If you are looking for even more savings, consider Cameron Brate who may be getting out-snapped by Cade Otton recently but has more target share, could be lowered owned, and is cheaper on FanDuel.
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